Developing a risk-informed decision-support system for earthquake early warning at a critical seaport

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are used to provide timely alerts on ongoing earthquakes, which can facilitate important risk-mitigation actions before potentially damaging seismic waves reach target sites. A major shortcoming of existing EEW approaches is that the earthquake-related conditions for activating alerts are not generally defined according to a formal decision-support system (DSS) that accounts for possible risk-based consequences of triggering/not triggering the alarm. This paper exploits a next-generation risk-informed EEW DSS, which incorporates Multi-Criteria Decision-Making for evaluating the optimal decision. The proposed DSS integrates engineering-driven loss predictions associated with issuing/not issuing an EEW alert during an event, also considering possible system malfunctions. The DSS is demonstrated for the strategic Gioia Tauro seaport, located in the region of Italy with the highest seismic hazard. Real-time seismic risk analyses are conducted for various earthquake scenarios, accounting for event-parameter uncertainties that are integral to any EEW process and considering the multicomponent nature of the port as a system of interconnected elements. The results of these analyses are used as input to the proposed EEW DSS along with end-user risk preferences, to evaluate the optimal decision in each case and to define a series of risk-informed EEW warning thresholds for the port

Relationship between rhinitis duration and worsening of nasal function

While it is well known that asthma is characterized by airway remodeling, few studies instead have investigated this issue in patients with allergic rhinitis (AR)

Impact of allergic rhinitis on asthma: effects on bronchodilation testing

A remarkable relationship exists between the upper and lower airways. Bronchial obstruction is a paramount feature of asthma, and its reversibility is considered a main step in asthma diagnosis

Vectorial magnetometers for noise reduction in volcanomagnetic monitoring at Mt Etna

The volcanomagnetic monitoring is critically dependent on the ability to detect and isolate magnetic variations related to volcanic activity. Accurate detection of volcanomagnetic anomalies attributable to the volcano’s dynamics requires removing from measurements of the earth’s magnetic field, fluctuations of external origin which may be up to hundreds of nanotesla during geomagnetic storms. The commonly used method of taking simple differences of the total intensity with respect to the simultaneous value at a remote reference is partially successful. Variations in the difference fields arise principally from contrasting electromagnetic properties at magnetometer sites. To improve the noise reduction of geomagnetic data from magnetic network of Mt Etna we developed an adaptive filtering. Magnetic vector data are included as input to the filter, to account for the orientation of the disturbance field. The filter is able to estimate and rectify the model parameters continuously by means of new observations, so that predictions match the observed data. The error of state estimation has been decreased and the filtering accuracy improved. Experimental data collected on Mt Etna during 2010 are analyzed to relate the field variation at a given station to the field at other sites filtering out undesired noise and enhancing signal-to-noise ratio

Prenatal diagnosis of total and partial anomalous pulmonary venous connection: multicenter cohort study and meta-analysis

Objectives: The aims of this study were to review systematically literature on and describe the sonographic features and associated anomalies of total (TAPVC) and partial (PAPVC) anomalous pulmonary venous connection and scimitar syndrome (SS). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was carried out of cases of TAPVC, PAPVC and SS that underwent comprehensive ultrasound examination, seen over a 20-year period at two tertiary referral centers. Assessed variables included TAPVC subtype, gestational age at diagnosis, area behind the left atrium, ventricular disproportion, vertical vein, pulmonary venous obstruction, mode of diagnosis, association with cardiac and extracardiac conditions, and pregnancy and fetoneonatal outcomes. The outcome was considered favorable if the individual was alive and well (no functional impairment from surgery or cardiac or extracardiac conditions). Cases associated with right isomerism were excluded from the analysis, as TAPVC in these cases was only one of several major cardiac anomalies affecting sonographic signs. A systematic review was performed in order to obtain a synthesis of characteristics associated with TAPVC, PAPVC and SS. The literature search of PubMed and EMBASE (1970–2016) included reviews, case series and case reports. A meta-analysis was conducted only for TAPVC. Random-effects models were used to obtain pooled estimates of the frequencies of clinical characteristics and sonographic features. Results: For TAPVC, a total of 15 studies involving 71 patients (including 13 from the current cohort study) were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled estimate for the association of TAPVC with congenital heart disease was 28.3% (95% CI, 18.1–41.3%) and with extracardiac anomalies it was 18.5% (95% CI, 10.5–30.6%). Of TAPVC cases, obstructed venous return was observed in 34.1% (95% CI, 22.7–47.7%), a favorable outcome in 43.8% (95% CI, 24.0–65.8%), ventricular disproportion in 59.2% (95% CI, 45.1–72.0%), increased area behind the left atrium in 58.1% (95% CI, 41.1–73.5%) and a vertical vein in 59.3% (95% CI, 41.1–75.3%). Diagnosis was established by using color or power Doppler in 84.9% (95% CI, 67.3–93.9%) of cases. For SS, there were only three studies describing eight cases, to which the current study added another five. Ventricular disproportion was present in three out of nine SS cases for which data were available, but for two of these, there was a concurrent heart anomaly. Color Doppler was used for all SS diagnoses, and four-dimensional echocardiography was useful in two out of six cases in which it was used. Outcome for SS cases was generally good. For PAPVC, there were only five studies describing five cases, to which the current study added another two. Major cardiac anomalies were associated in four out of seven of these cases, and extracardiac anomalies in three out of six cases for which data were available. Conclusions: TAPVC can be associated with other cardiac and extracardiac anomalies in a significant percentage of cases. Leading sonographic signs are ventricular disproportion, increased area behind the left atrium and the finding of a vertical vein. Color/power Doppler is the key mode for diagnosis of TAPVC. Obstructed venous return can be expected in roughly one-third of cases of TAPVC and outcome is favorable in less than half of cases. Data for SS and PAPVC are too few to synthesize. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Reply to comment by D. Carbone and D. Patanè on “Multi-disciplinary investigation on a lava fountain preceding a flank eruption: the 10 May 2008 Etna case”

Bonaccorso et al. [2011a] investigated the source and magma dynamics of the 10 May 2008 lava fountain at the South-East Crater (SEC) of Mount Etna through a multidisciplinary approach that integrated a wide data set ranging from bulk rock compositions of the erupted products to seismic tremor and long-period events, tilt and gravity signals. Using a large dataset, the study provided a robust framework in which the mechanism of the 10 May 2008 lava fountain is explained as a violent release of bubble-rich magma layer previously trapped at the top of a shallow reservoir located between −0.5 and 1.5 km above sea level (asl). This result is in agreement with recent relevant literature [Allard et al., 2005; Vergniolle and Ripepe, 2008; Aiuppa et al., 2010; Andronico and Corsaro, 2011; Bonaccorso et al., 2011b; Calvari et al., 2011; Vergniolle and Gaudemer, 2012]. In the introduction of their comment Carbone and Patanè [submitted] affirm that in their opinion the interpretation that “the lava fountain was generated by the fragmentation of a foam layer trapped at the top of shallow reservoir” is not soundly based. This comment’s conclusion is puzzling because one of the comment’s authors (D. Patanè) is also a co-author on the paper by Aiuppa et al. [2010] where the same conclusion, now criticized, was well supported (see figure 5 and conclusions of that paper). In particular, in the conclusions Aiuppa et al. [2010] reported that “The paroxysmal SEC episodes mark the violent release of a bubble-rich magma layer, with bubbles having relatively shallow reservoir ...", that is, the same conclusion now criticized in the comment. After this, the comment raises issues concerning the analysis and interpretation of gravity and tilt data in the multidisciplinary approach presented by Bonaccorso et al. [2011a]. The comment by Carbone and Patanè is divided into 4 paragraphs, labelled “1. Introduction”, “2. Gravity changes”, “3. Tilt changes” and “4. Concluding remarks” with only paragraphs 2 and 3 containing specific comments. In this reply, we address these two paragraphs, and we shall show how the assumptions underlying the comment are merely speculative and why the results presented by Bonaccorso et al.[2011a] remain valid

Development and validation of a composite disease activity score for juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective. To develop and validate a composite disease activity score for juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), the Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score (JADAS). Methods. The JADAS includes 4 measures: physician global assessment of disease activity, parent/patient global assessment of well-being, active joint count, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. These variables are part of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Pediatric 30 (Pedi 30), Pedi 50, and Pedi 70 criteria for improvement. Validation analyses were conducted on >4,500 patients and included assessment of construct validity, discriminant validity, and responsiveness to change. Three versions of the JADAS were tested based on 71-joint (range 0 \u2013101), 27-joint (range 0 \u201357), or 10-joint (range 0 \u2013 40) counts. Statistical performances of the JADAS were compared with those of 2 rheumatoid arthritis composite scores, the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) and the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI). Results. The JADAS demonstrated good construct validity, yielding strong correlations with JIA activity measures not included in the score and moderate correlations with the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire. Correlations obtained for the 3 JADAS versions were comparable, but superior to those yielded by the DAS28 and CDAI. The area under the curve of the JADAS predicted long-term disease outcome, measured as radiographic progression over 3 years. In 2 clinical trials, the JADAS discriminated well between ACR Pedi 30, Pedi 50, and Pedi 70 response and revealed strong responsiveness to clinical change. Conclusion. The JADAS was found to be a valid instrument for assessment of disease activity in JIA and is potentially applicable in standard clinical care, observational studies, and clinical trials