Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of diferent alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)-e.g. quantile mapping-to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration (RC) methods- e.g. non-homogeneous Gaussian regression, which build on the temporal correspondence between the climate model and the corresponding observations to generate reliable predictions. To be as critical as possible, we validate the raw model and the calibrated forecasts in terms of a number of metrics which take into account diferent aspects of forecast quality (association, accuracy, discrimination and reliability). We focus on one-month lead forecasts of precipitation and temperature from four state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, three of them included in the Copernicus Climate Change Service dataset (ECMWF-SEAS5, UK Met Ofce-GloSea5 and Météo France-System5) for boreal winter and summer over two illustrative regions with diferent skill characteristics (Europe and Southeast Asia). Our results indicate that both BA and RC methods efectively correct the large raw model biases, which is of paramount importance for users, particularly when directly using the climate model outputs to run impact models, or when computing climate indices depending on absolute values/thresholds. However, except for particular regions and/or seasons (typically with high skill), there is only marginal added value-with respect to the raw model outputs-beyond this bias removal. For those cases, RC methods can outperform BA ones, mostly due to an improvement in reliability. Finally, we also show that whereas an increase in the number of members only modestly afects the results obtained from calibration, longer hindcast periods lead to improved forecast quality, particularly for RC methods.This work has been funded by the C3S activity on Evaluation and Quality Control for seasonal forecasts. JMG was partially supported by the project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R, MINECO/FEDER). FJDR was partially funded by the H2020 EUCP project (GA 776613)

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Alignment of the ALICE Inner Tracking System with cosmic-ray tracks

37 pages, 15 figures, revised version, accepted by JINSTALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment) is the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) experiment devoted to investigating the strongly interacting matter created in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the LHC energies. The ALICE ITS, Inner Tracking System, consists of six cylindrical layers of silicon detectors with three different technologies; in the outward direction: two layers of pixel detectors, two layers each of drift, and strip detectors. The number of parameters to be determined in the spatial alignment of the 2198 sensor modules of the ITS is about 13,000. The target alignment precision is well below 10 micron in some cases (pixels). The sources of alignment information include survey measurements, and the reconstructed tracks from cosmic rays and from proton-proton collisions. The main track-based alignment method uses the Millepede global approach. An iterative local method was developed and used as well. We present the results obtained for the ITS alignment using about 10^5 charged tracks from cosmic rays that have been collected during summer 2008, with the ALICE solenoidal magnet switched off.Peer reviewe

First measurement of the |t|-dependence of coherent J/ψ photonuclear production

The first measurement of the cross section for coherent J/ψ photoproduction as a function of |t|, the square of the momentum transferred between the incoming and outgoing target nucleus, is presented. The data were measured with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair sNN=5.02TeV with the J/ψ produced in the central rapidity region |y|<0.8, which corresponds to the small Bjorken-x range (0.3−1.4)×10−3. The measured |t|-dependence is not described by computations based only on the Pb nuclear form factor, while the photonuclear cross section is better reproduced by models including shadowing according to the leading-twist approximation, or gluon-saturation effects from the impact-parameter dependent Balitsky–Kovchegov equation. These new results are therefore a valid tool to constrain the relevant model parameters and to investigate the transverse gluonic structure at very low Bjorken-x.publishedVersio

Resolving the strange behavior of extraterrestrial potassium in the upper atmosphere

It has been known since the 1960s that the layers of Na and K atoms, which occur between 80 and 105 km in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of meteoric ablation, exhibit completely different seasonal behavior. In the extratropics Na varies annually, with a pronounced wintertime maximum and summertime minimum. However, K varies semiannually with a small summertime maximum and minima at the equinoxes. This contrasting behavior has never been satisfactorily explained. Here we use a combination of electronic structure and chemical kinetic rate theory to determine two key differences in the chemistries of K and Na. First, the neutralization of K+ ions is only favored at low temperatures during summer. Second, cycling between K and its major neutral reservoir KHCO3 is essentially temperature independent. A whole atmosphere model incorporating this new chemistry, together with a meteor input function, now correctly predicts the seasonal behavior of the K layer

Particle identification in ALICE : a Bayesian approach

Peer reviewe

Flow Dominance and Factorization of Transverse Momentum Correlations in Pb-Pb Collisions at the LHC

We present the first measurement of the two-particle transverse momentum differential correlation function, P2≡ ΔpTΔpT/ pT2, in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV. Results for P2 are reported as a function of the relative pseudorapidity (Δη) and azimuthal angle (Δφ) between two particles for different collision centralities. The Δφ dependence is found to be largely independent of Δη for |Δη|≥0.9. In the 5% most central Pb-Pb collisions, the two-particle transverse momentum correlation function exhibits a clear double-hump structure around Δφ=π (i.e., on the away side), which is not observed in number correlations in the same centrality range, and thus provides an indication of the dominance of triangular flow in this collision centrality. Fourier decompositions of P2, studied as a function of the collision centrality, show that correlations at |Δη|≥0.9 can be well reproduced by a flow ansatz based on the notion that measured transverse momentum correlations are strictly determined by the collective motion of the system

K*(892)(0) and phi(1020)meson production at high transverse momentum in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at root sNN=2.76 TeV

The production of K∗(892)0 and φ(1020) mesons in proton-proton (pp) and lead-lead (Pb-Pb) collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV has been analyzed using a high luminosity data sample accumulated in 2011 with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Transverse momentum (pT) spectra have been measured for K∗(892)0 and φ(1020) mesons via their hadronic decay channels for pT up to 20 GeV/c. The measurements in pp collisions have been compared to model calculations and used to determine the nuclear modification factor and particle ratios. The K∗(892)0/K ratio exhibits significant reduction from pp to central Pb-Pb collisions, consistent with the suppression of the K∗(892)0 yield at low pT due to rescattering of its decay products in the hadronic phase. In central Pb-Pb collisions the pT dependent φ(1020)/π and K∗(892)0/π ratios show an enhancement over pp collisions for pT ≈ 3 GeV/c, consistent with previous observations of strong radial flow. At high pT, particle ratios in Pb-Pb collisions are similar to those measured in pp collisions. In central Pb-Pb collisions, the production of K∗(892)0 and φ(1020) mesons is suppressed for pT &gt; 8 GeV/c. This suppression is similar to that of charged pions, kaons, and protons, indicating that the suppression does not depend on particle mass or flavor in the light quark sector

J/psi production as a function of charged-particle pseudorapidity density in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV

We report measurements of the inclusive J/ψ yield and average transverse momentum as a function of charged-particle pseudorapidity density dNch/dη in p–Pb collisions at sNN=5.02TeV with ALICE at the LHC. The observables are normalised to their corresponding averages in non-single diffractive events. An increase of the normalised J/ψ yield with normalised dNch/dη, measured at mid-rapidity, is observed at mid-rapidity and backward rapidity. At forward rapidity, a saturation of the relative yield is observed for high charged-particle multiplicities. The normalised average transverse momentum at forward and backward rapidities increases with multiplicity at low multiplicities and saturates beyond moderate multiplicities. In addition, the forward-to-backward nuclear modification factor ratio is also reported, showing an increasing suppression of J/ψ production at forward rapidity with respect to backward rapidity for increasing charged-particle multiplicity