Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data

Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot

Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs) provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and Red Green and Blue (RGB) imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region.Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8) and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R2 of 0.8–0.9) allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented enables the integration of site-based biotic assessment with structural vegetation types for the rapid delineation and prioritization of key refugia

Conservation planning in a fire-prone Mediterranean region: threats and opportunities for bird species

In response to the processes threatening biodiversity such as habitat loss, effective selection of priority conservation areas is required. However, reserve selection methods usually ignore the drivers of future habitat changes, thus compromising the effectiveness of conservation. In this work, we formulated an approach to explicitly quantify the impact of fire on conservation areas, considering such disturbance as a driver of land-cover changes. The estimated fire impact was integrated as a constraint in the reserve selection process to tackle the likely threats or opportunities that fire disturbance might cause to the targeted species depending on their habitat requirements. In this way, we selected conservation areas in a fire-prone Mediterranean region for two bird assemblages: forest and open-habitat species. Differences in conservation areas selected before and after integrating the impact of fire in the reserve selection process were assessed. Integration of fire impact for forest species moved preferences towards areas that were less prone to burn. However, a larger area was required to achieve the same conservation goals. Conversely, integration of fire impacts for open-habitat species shifted preferences towards conservation areas in locations where the persistence of their required habitat is more likely (i.e. shrublands). In other words, we prioritized the conservation of not only the current distribution of open-habitat birds, but also the disturbance process (i.e. fire) that favours their preferred habitat and distributions in the long term. Finally, this work emphasizes the need to consider the opposing potential impacts of wildfires on species for an effective conservation planning

Association between impaired glucose tolerance and circulating concentration of Lp(a) lipoprotein in relation to coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether impaired glucose tolerance and raised Lp(a) lipoprotein concentrations are associated in subjects with coronary artery disease. DESIGN: Study of two subject populations, one with and one without symptomatic coronary artery disease. Case-control analysis of patients with impaired glucose tolerance and normal glucose tolerance performed in each subject population independently. SETTING: A general practice and a hospital ward in Newcastle upon Tyne. SUBJECTS: 517 apparently healthy subjects, 13 with impaired glucose tolerance, and 245 patients who had undergone coronary artery bypass graft surgery 12 months before, 51 with impaired glucose tolerance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum Lp(a) lipoprotein concentration, plasma glucose concentration before and after oral challenge with 75 g glucose monohydrate, and Lp(a) lipoprotein isoforms. RESULTS: In both the asymptomatic subjects and the subjects with coronary artery disease there was no significant difference between subjects with impaired glucose tolerance and subjects with normal and body mass index in serum Lp(a) lipoprotein concentrations (geometric mean 61 (geometric SD 4) mg/l v 83 (5) mg/l for asymptomatic subjects, 175 (3) v 197 (2) for subjects with heart disease), nor was there any difference in the proportion of subjects who had Lp(a) lipoprotein concentrations > 300 mg/l (31% v 23% for asymptomatic subjects, 37% v 37% for subjects with heart disease). For both subject groups there was no significant correlation between Lp(a) lipoprotein concentration and plasma glucose concentration after a glucose tolerance test, nor did Lp(a) lipoprotein concentration vary by quintile of glucose concentration after the test. Examination of Lp(a) lipoprotein isoforms in the subjects with coronary artery disease revealed an inverse relation between isoform size and plasma Lp(a) lipoprotein concentration, but there was no evidence that impaired glucose tolerance was associated with particular Lp(a) lipoprotein isoforms. CONCLUSION: Raised Lp(a) lipoprotein concentrations are not responsible for the association between impaired glucose tolerance and coronary artery disease

Jund is a determinant of macrophage activation and is associated with glomerulonephritis susceptibility

Crescentic glomerulonephritis is an important cause of human kidney failure for which the underlying molecular basis is largely unknown. In previous studies, we mapped several susceptibility loci, Crgn1-Crgn7, for crescentic glomerulonephritis in the Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat. Here we show by combined congenic, linkage and microarray studies that the activator protein-1 (AP-1) transcription factor JunD is a major determinant of macrophage activity and is associated with glomerulonephritis susceptibility. Introgression of Crgn2 from the nonsusceptible Lewis strain onto the WKY background leads to significant reductions in crescent formation, macrophage infiltration, Fc receptor-mediated macrophage activation and cytokine production. Haplotype analysis restricted the Crgn2 linkage interval to a 430-kb interval containing Jund, which is markedly overexpressed in WKY macrophages and glomeruli. Jund knockdown in rat and human primary macrophages led to significantly reduced macrophage activity and cytokine secretion, indicating conservation of JunD function in macrophage activation in rats and humans and suggesting in vivo inhibition of Jund as a possible new therapeutic strategy for diseases characterized by inflammation and macrophage activation