Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Outpatient chemotherapy with gemcitabine and oxaliplatin in patients with biliary tract cancer

This phase II study was conducted to determine the efficacy and toxicity of a gemcitabine (GEM) and oxaliplatin (OX) chemotherapy protocol in patients with unresectable biliary tract cancer (BTC). Patients were treated with GEM 1000 mg m−2 (30 min infusion) on days 1, 8, 15, and OX 100 mg m−2 (2 h infusion) on days 1 and 15 (gemcitabine and oxaliplatin (GEMOX-3 protocol), repeated every 28 days. The data were collected according to the Simon 2-stage design for a single centre phase II study (α=0.05; β=0.2). Primary end point was response rate; secondary end points were time-to-progression (TTP), median survival, and safety profile. Thirty-one patients were enrolled in the study between July 2002 and April 2005. Therapeutic responses were as follows: partial response in eight patients (26%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 14–44), stable disease in 14 patients (45%, 95%CI 29–62), resulting in a disease control rate of 71%. Nine patients (29%, 95%CI 16–47) had progressive disease. Median TTP was 6.5 months. Median overall survival was 11 months. Common Toxicity Criteria (CTC) Grade 3–4 toxicities were transient thrombocytopenia (23%), peripheral sensory neuropathy (19%), leucopenia (16%), and anaemia (10%). In conclusion the GEMOX-3 protocol is active and well tolerated in patients with advanced BTC. It can be applied in an outpatient setting with three visits per month only

CT-guided intratumoural administration of cisplatin/epinephrine gel for treatment of malignant liver tumours

To analyze prospectively the interventional and clinical aspects of computed tomography-guided direct intratumoural injection of a novel chemotherapeutic administration and the parenchymal changes of tumour and necrosis in malignant liver tumours. Eight patients with 17 colorectal liver metastases were treated with a mean of 5.1 injections and nine patients with 13 hepatocellular carcinoma nodules with a mean of 3.1 treatments with computed tomography guided local applications of a novel cisplatin/epinephrine gel. This application provides a higher local and lower systemic drug concentration. Volumes of tumour and necrosis prior and after treatment were measured by computer generated volumetric analysis. Contrast enhanced studies verified pretherapeutic viable tumour volumes with a value of 77.4 ml in the metastases and 29.2 ml in the hepatocellular carcinoma nodules. Intratumoural drug application resulted in a significant increase of necrosis and a decrease in viable tumour volume to be 68.3 ml in metastases and 14.5 ml in hepatocellular carcinoma. Local therapy control rate for the follow up to 6 months was 38 and 71% for the group of metastases and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. Direct intratumoural injection of cisplatin/epinepthrine injectable gel is a feasible and good tolerated method and results in the development of a statistically significant increase in necrosis in malignant liver tumours. For hepatocellular carcinoma a higher local therapy control rate compared to colorectal metastases can be reported

Efficacy and tolerability of bevacizumab plus capecitabine as first-line therapy in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Molecularly targeted agents with anti-angiogenic activity, including bevacizumab, have demonstrated clinical activity in patients with advanced /metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This multicentre phase II study involving patients from several Asian countries sought to evaluate the safety and efficacy of bevacizumab plus capecitabine in this population. METHODS: Histologically proven/clinically diagnosed advanced HCC patients received bevacizumab 7.5 mg kg(-1) on day 1 and capecitabine 800 mg m(-2) twice daily on days 1-14 every 3 weeks as first-line therapy. RESULTS: A total of 45 patients were enrolled; 44 (96%) had extrahepatic metastasis and/or major vessel invasion and 30( 67%) had hepatitis B. No grade 3/4 haematological toxicity occurred. Treatment-related grade 3/4 non-haematological toxicities included diarrhoea (n = 2, 4%), nausea/ vomiting ( n = 1, 2%), gastrointestinal bleeding (n = 4, 9%) and hand- foot syndrome (n = 4, 9%). The overall response rate ( RECIST) was 9% and the disease control rate was 52%. Overall , median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival(OS) were 2.7 and 5.9 months, respectively. Median PFS and OS were 3.6 and 8.2 months, respectively, for Cancer of the Liver Italian Programme (CLIP) score <= 3 patients, and 1.4 and 3.3 months, respectively, for CLIP score 4 patients. CONCLUSION: The bevacizumab-capecitabine combination shows good tolerability and modest anti-tumour activity in patients with advanced HCC

Orange jasmine as a trap crop to control Diaphorina citri

[EN] Novel, suitable and sustainable alternative control tactics that have the potential to reduce migration of Diaphorina citri into commercial citrus orchards are essential to improve management of huanglongbing (HLB). In this study, the effect of orange jasmine (Murraya paniculata) as a border trap crop on psyllid settlement and dispersal was assessed in citrus orchards. Furthermore, volatile emission profiles and relative attractiveness of both orange jasmine and sweet orange (Citrus¿×¿aurantium L., syn. Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck) nursery flushes to D. citri were investigated. In newly established citrus orchards, the trap crop reduced the capture of psyllids in yellow sticky traps and the number of psyllids that settled on citrus trees compared to fallow mowed grass fields by 40% and 83%, respectively. Psyllids were attracted and killed by thiamethoxam-treated orange jasmine suggesting that the trap crop could act as a `sink¿ for D. citri. Additionally, the presence of the trap crop reduced HLB incidence by 43%. Olfactometer experiments showed that orange jasmine plays an attractive role on psyllid behavior and that this attractiveness may be associated with differences in the volatile profiles emitted by orange jasmine in comparison with sweet orange. Results indicated that insecticide-treated M. paniculata may act as a trap crop to attract and kill D. citri before they settled on the edges of citrus orchards, which significantly contributes to the reduction of HLB primary spread.This work was supported by Fund for Citrus Protection (Fundecitrus) and by Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) (Proc. 2015/07011-3). We thank Moacir Celio Vizone, Felipe Marinho Martini and Joao Pedro Ancoma Lopes for technical support with experiments. Furthermore, we thank Cambuhy Agricola Ltda. and University of Araraquara (Uniara) for providing the areas in which the field experiments were performed. Second author received scholarship from National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)/Brazil (Proc. 300153/2011-2).Tomaseto, AF.; Marques, RN.; Fereres, A.; Zanardi, OZ.; Volpe, HXL.; Alquézar-García, B.; Peña, L.... (2019). Orange jasmine as a trap crop to control Diaphorina citri. Scientific Reports. 9:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38597-5S1119Bové, J. M. Huanglongbing: a destructive, newly-emerging, century-old disease of citrus. J Plant Pathol. 88, 7–37 (2006).Alvarez, S., Rohrig, E., Solís, D. & Thomas, M. H. Citrus greening disease (Huanglongbing) in Florida: economic impact, management and the potential for biological control. Agric. Res. 5, 109–118 (2016).Belasque, J. Jr. et al. Lessons from huanglongbing management in São Paulo state, Brazil. J. Plant Pathol. 92, 285–302 (2010).Boina, D. R., Meyer, W. L., Onagbola, E. O. & Stelinski, L. L. 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Alfalfa harvest strategy effect on lygus bug (Hemiptera: Miridae) and insect predator population density: Implications for use as trap crop in cotton. Environ. Entomol. 23, 1106–1118 (1994).Gonsalves, D. & Ferreira, S. Transgenic papaya: a case for managing risks of Papaya ringspot virus in Hawaii. Plant Heal. Prog. 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1094/PHP-2003-1113-03-RV (2003)Aubert, B. Trioza erytheae del Guercio and Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psylloidea), the two vectors of citrus greening disease: biological aspects and possible control strategies. Fruits 42, 149–162 (1987).Leong, S. C. T., Fatimah, A., Beattie, A., Heng, R. K. J. & King, W. S. Influence of host plant species and flush growth stage on the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. Am. J. Agric. Biol. Sci. 6, 536–543 (2011).Patt, J. M. & Sétamou, M. Responses of the Asian citrus psyllid to volatiles emitted by the flushing shoots of its rutaceous host plants. Environ. Entomol. 39, 618–24 (2010).Damsteegt, V. D. et al. Murraya paniculata and related species as potential hosts and inoculum reservoirs of ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’, causal agent of huanglongbing. Plant Dis. 94, 528–533 (2010).Lopes, S. A. et al. Liberibacters associated with orange jasmine in Brazil: Incidence in urban areas and relatedness to citrus liberibacters. Plant Pathol. 59, 1044–1053 (2010).Cifuentes-Arenas, J. C. Huanglongbing e Diaphorina citri: Estudos das relações patógeno-vetor-hospedeiro. Ph.D. Thesis. Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias/Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Jaboticabal, SP, Brazil. 1–133 (2017).Morilla, G. et al. Pepper (Capsicum annuum) is a dead-end host for Tomato yellow leaf curl virus. Phytopathology 95, 1089–1097 (2005).Midega, C. A. O., Pittchar, J. O., Pickett, J. A., Hailu, G. W. & Khan, Z. R. A climate-adapted push-pull system effectively controls fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), in maize in East Africa. Crop Prot. 105, 10–15 (2018).Miranda, M. P. et al. Processed kaolin affects the probing and settling behavior of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae). Pest Manag. Sci. 74, 1964–1972 (2018).Kobori, Y., Nakata, T., Ohto, Y. & Takasu, F. Dispersal of adult Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psyllidae), the vector of citrus greening disease, in artificial release experiments. Appl. Entomol. Zool. 46, 27–30 (2011).Sétamou, M. et al. Diurnal patterns of flight activity and effects of light on host finding behavior of the Asian citrus psyllid. J. Insect Behav. 25, 264–276 (2012).Wenninger, E. J., Stelinski, L. L. & Hall, D. G. Roles of olfactory cues, visual cues, and mating status in orientation of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) to four different host plants. Environ. Entomol. 38, 225–234 (2009).Miranda, M. P., Dos Santos, F. L., Felippe, M. R., Moreno, A. & Fereres, A. Effect of UV-blocking plastic films on take-off and host plant finding ability of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae). J. Econ. Entomol. 108, 245–251 (2015).Visser, J. H. Host odor perception in phytophagous insects. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 31, 121–144 (1986).Robbins, P. S., Alessandro, R. T., Stelinski, L. L. & Lapointe, S. L. Volatile profiles of young leaves of Rutaceae spp. varying in susceptibility to the Asian citrus psyllid (Hemiptera: Psyllidae). Florida Entomol. 95, 774–776 (2012).Fancelli, M. et al. Attractiveness of host plant volatile extracts to the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, is reduced by terpenoids from the non-host cashew. J. Chem. Ecol. 44, 397–405 (2018).Alquézar, B. et al. β-caryophyllene emitted from a transgenic Arabidopsis or chemical dispenser repels Diaphorina citri, vector of Candidatus Liberibacters. Sci. Rep. 7, 5639 (2017).Jones, R. A. C. Effects of cereal borders, admixture with cereals and plant density on the spread of bean yellow mosaic potyvirus into narrow‐leafed lupins (Lupinus angustifolius). Ann. Appl. Biol. 122, 501–518 (1993).Beloti, V. H., Alves, G. R., Coletta-Filho, H. D. & Yamamoto, P. T. The Asian citrus psyllid host Murraya koenigii is immune to citrus huanglongbing pathogen ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’. Phytopathology 108, 1089–1094 (2018).Walter, A. J., Duan, Y. & Hall, D. G. Titers of ‘Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus’ in Murraya paniculata and Murraya-reared Diaphorina citri are much lower than in Citrus and Citrus-reared psyllids. HortScience 47, 1449–1452 (2012).Walter, A. J., Hall, D. G. & Duan, Y. P. Low incidence of ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ in Murraya paniculata and associated Diaphorina citri. Plant Dis. 96, 827–832 (2012).Ammar, E.-D. D., Ramos, J. E., Hall, D. G., Dawson, W. O. & Shatters, R. G. Acquisition, replication and inoculation of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus following various acquisition periods on huanglongbing-infected citrus by nymphs and adults of the Asian citrus psyllid. PLoS One 11, e0159594 (2016).Inoue, H. et al. Enhanced proliferation and efficient transmission of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus by adult Diaphorina citri after acquisition feeding in the nymphal stage. Ann. Appl. Biol. 155, 29–36 (2009).Pelz-Stelinski, K. S., Brlansky, R. H., Ebert, T. A. & Rogers, M. E. Transmission parameters for Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus by Asian citrus psyllid (Hemiptera: Psyllidae). J. Econ. Entomol. 103, 1531–1541 (2010).Canale, M. C. et al. Latency and persistence of ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ in its psyllid vector, Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae). Phytopathology 107, 264–272 (2017).Li, W., Hartung, J. S. & Levy, L. Quantitative real-time PCR for detection and identification of Candidatus Liberibacter species associated with citrus huanglongbing. J. Microbiol. Methods 66, 104–115 (2006).Nakata, T. Effectiveness of micronized fluorescent powder for marking citrus psyllid. Diaphorina citri. Appl. Entomol. Zool. 43, 33–36 (2008).Tomaseto, A. F. et al. Environmental conditions for Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) take-off. J. Appl. Entomol. 142, 104–113 (2018).Paris, T. M., Croxton, S. D., Stansly, P. A. & Allan, S. A. Temporal response and attraction of Diaphorina citri to visual stimuli. Entomol. Exp. Appl. 155, 137–147 (2015).Zanardi, O. Z. et al. Putative sex pheromone of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, breaks down into an attractant. Sci. Rep. 8, 455 (2018).Metsalu, T. & Vilo, J. ClustVis: A web tool for visualizing clustering of multivariate data using Principal Component Analysis and heatmap. Nucleic Acids Res. 43, W566–W570 (2015).Fournier, D. A. et al. AD Model Builder: using automatic differentiation for statistical inference of highly parameterized complex nonlinear models. Optim. Methods Softw. 27, 233–249 (2012).Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B. & Walker, S. Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. J. Stat. Softw. 67, 1–48 (2015).Nelder, J. A. & Wedderburn, R. W. M. Generalized linear models. J. R. Stat. Soc. 135, 370–384 (1972).Demétrio, C. G. B., Hinde, J. & Moral, R. A. In Ecological Modelling Applied to Entomology (eds Ferreira, C. P. & Godoy, W. A. C.) 219–259 (Springer, 2014).Lenth, R. V. Least-Squares Means: the R package lsmeans. J. Stat. Softw. 69, (2016).R Core Team R: A language and environment for statistical computing. 2015. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria (2015). Available at, http://www.r-project.org/ . (Accessed: 20th July 2017)

Consórcio couve-coentro em cultivo orgânico e sua influência nas populações de joaninhas.

O consórcio de culturas é comumente praticado na produção de hortaliças devido a diversos benefícios econômicos. Em alguns casos, podem reduzir infestações de pragas por favorecer a conservação dos inimigos naturais nos agroecossistemas. Avaliou-se a viabilidade agronômica do consórcio de couve e coentro, sob manejo orgânico, com base em parâmetros fitotécnicos, além de sua influência sobre populações de joaninhas (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), na comparação com os respectivos cultivos solteiros. O coentro, representando a cultura secundária, foi utilizado com a finalidade de fornecer recursos para as joaninhas. O estudo foi realizado em área do Sistema Integrado de Produção Agroecológica em Seropédica-RJ. O experimento consistiu dos consórcios: 1) couve consorciada com coentro, cujas quatro linhas de plantas foram colhidas na fase vegetativa (consórcio I), e 2) couve consorciada com coentro, cujas plantas das duas linhas internas (próximas à linha da couve) foram colhidas na fase vegetativa e as duas linhas externas foram cortadas após floração (consórcio II). Em ambos consórcios foram avaliados os parâmetros fitotécnicos da couve e do coentro na fase vegetativa (padrão comercial), enquanto que no consórcio II, também se avaliou as populações de joaninhas, por meio de coletas semanais de adultos, em comparação com a couve em cultivo solteiro. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso com quatro repetições. O coentro não interferiu na produtividade da couve consorciada e sua introdução contribuiu positivamente para a abundância e diversidade de espécies de joaninhas. O índice de equivalência de área para o consórcio I, com referência aos rendimentos de biomassa aérea fresca, foi superior em 92% em relação ao cultivo solteiro. Este resultado demonstra a viabilidade do consórcio I, no manejo orgânico adotado, para plantios de outono nas condições edafoclimáticas da Baixada Fluminense

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008

Systemic chemotherapy with doxorubicin, cisplatin and capecitabine for metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Although numerous chemotherapeutic agents have been tested, the role of systemic chemotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been clarified. New therapeutic strategies are thus needed to improve outcomes, and we designed this study with new effective drug combination. METHODS: Twenty-nine patients with histologically-confirmed, metastatic HCC received a combination chemotherapy with doxorubicin 60 mg/m(2 )and cisplatin 60 mg/m(2 )on day 1, plus capecitabine 2000 mg/m(2)/day as an intermittent regimen of 2 weeks of treatment followed by a 1-week rest. RESULTS: The median age was 49 years (range, 32–64) and 19 patients were hepatitis B virus seropositive. Child-Pugh class was A in all patients and 4 had Zubrod performance status of 2. The objective response rate was 24% (95% CI 9–40) with 6 stable diseases. The chemotherapy was generally well tolerated despite one treatment-related death. CONCLUSION: Combination chemotherapy with doxorubicin, cisplatin and capecitabine produced modest antitumor activity with tolerable adverse effects in patients with metastatic HCC