Applications of interpretability in deep learning models for ophthalmology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we introduce the concept of model interpretability, review its applications in deep learning models for clinical ophthalmology, and discuss its role in the integration of artificial intelligence in healthcare. RECENT FINDINGS: The advent of deep learning in medicine has introduced models with remarkable accuracy. However, the inherent complexity of these models undermines its users' ability to understand, debug and ultimately trust them in clinical practice. Novel methods are being increasingly explored to improve models' 'interpretability' and draw clearer associations between their outputs and features in the input dataset. In the field of ophthalmology, interpretability methods have enabled users to make informed adjustments, identify clinically relevant imaging patterns, and predict outcomes in deep learning models. SUMMARY: Interpretability methods support the transparency necessary to implement, operate and modify complex deep learning models. These benefits are becoming increasingly demonstrated in models for clinical ophthalmology. As quality standards for deep learning models used in healthcare continue to evolve, interpretability methods may prove influential in their path to regulatory approval and acceptance in clinical practice

A requirement model of an adaptive emergency evacuation center management

Among all natural disasters, flood is not only becoming increasingly dangerous, but is also recording the highest percentage of occurrences. Previous studies on flood disaster have provided solutions to deal with the problem. However, these research do not anticipate the scenario whereby evacuation centers are drowned by heavy flood. Besides, there were also no provision for requirement models which can be used as reference guides.This study proposes a requirement model for a decision aid model for evacuation center management which is capable of providing smart solutions for the relocation of victims to other evacuation centers should the flood level become increasingly dangerous.The methodology used in this study consists of five phases: requirement gathering, conceptual design, development, verification, and preparing thesis & articles for publication.This study has produced a requirement model of the proposed system that consists of a use case diagram, use case specifications, class diagrams, and sequence diagrams, which have been reviewed by experts using inspection method. The proposed requirement model can be used as a reference model for developers in producing similar evacuation center management system

A previously functional tetracycline-regulated transactivator fails to target gene expression to the bone

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The tetracycline-controlled transactivator system is a powerful tool to control gene expression <it>in vitro </it>and to generate consistent and conditional transgenic <it>in vivo </it>model organisms. It has been widely used to study gene function and to explore pathological mechanisms involved in human diseases. The system permits the regulation of the expression of a target gene, both temporally and quantitatively, by the application of tetracycline or its derivative, doxycycline. In addition, it offers the possibility to restrict gene expression in a spatial fashion by utilizing tissue-specific promoters to drive the transactivator.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>In this study, we report our problems using a reverse tetracycline-regulated transactivator (rtTA) in a transgenic mouse model system for the bone-specific expression of the Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome mutation. Even though prior studies have been successful utilizing the same rtTA, expression analysis of the transactivator revealed insufficient activity for regulating the transgene expression in our system. The absence of transactivator could not be ascribed to differences in genetic background because mice in a mixed genetic background and in congenic mouse lines showed similar results.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The purpose of this study is to report our negative experience with previously functional transactivator mice, to raise caution in the use of tet-based transgenic mouse lines and to reinforce the need for controls to ensure the stable functionality of generated tetracycline-controlled transactivators over time.</p

Does improving maternal knowledge of vaccines impact infant immunization rates? A community-based randomized-controlled trial in Karachi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Pakistan, only 59-73% of children 12-23 months of age are fully immunized. This randomized, controlled trial was conducted to assess the impact of a low-literacy immunization promotion educational intervention for mothers living in low-income communities of Karachi on infant immunization completion rates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three hundred and sixty-six mother-infant pairs, with infants aged <b>≤ </b>6 weeks, were enrolled and randomized into either the intervention or control arm between August - November 2008. The intervention, administered by trained community health workers, consisted of three targeted pictorial messages regarding vaccines. The control group received general health promotion messages based on Pakistan's Lady Health Worker program curriculum. Assessment of DPT/Hepatitis B vaccine completion (3 doses) was conducted 4-months after enrollment. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate effect of the intervention. The multivariable Poisson regression model included maternal education, paternal occupation, ownership of home, cooking fuel used at home, place of residence, the child's immunization status at enrollment, and mother's perception about the impact of immunization on child's health.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Baseline characteristics among the two groups were similar. At 4 month assessment, among 179 mother-infant pairs in the intervention group, 129 (72.1%) had received all 3 doses of DPT/Hepatitis B vaccine, whereas in the control group 92/178 (51.7%) had received all 3 doses. Multivariable analysis revealed a significant improvement of 39% (adjusted RR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.06-1.81) in DPT-3/Hepatitis B completion rates in the intervention group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A simple educational intervention designed for low-literate populations, improved DPT-3/Hepatitis B vaccine completion rates by 39%. These findings have important implications for improving routine immunization rates in Pakistan.</p

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug-induced apoptosis in gastric cancer cells is blocked by protein kinase C activation through inhibition of c-myc

Apoptosis plays a major role in gastrointestinal epithelial cell turnover, ulcerogenesis and tumorigenesis. We have examined apoptosis induction by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in human gastric (AGS) cancer cells and the role of protein kinase C (PKC) and apoptosis-related oncogenes. After treatment with aspirin or indomethacin, cell growth was quantified by MTT assay, and apoptosis was determined by acridine orange staining, DNA fragmentation and flow cytometry. The mRNA and protein of p53, p21waf1/cip1 and c-myc was detected by Northern and Western blotting respectively. The influence of PKC on indomethacin-induced apoptosis was determined by co-incubation of 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol 13-acetate (TPA). The role of c-myc was determined using its antisense oligonucleotides. The results showed that both aspirin and indomethacin inhibited cell growth and induced apoptosis of AGS cells in a dose- and time-dependent manner, without altering the cell cycle. Indomethacin increased c-myc mRNA and protein, whereas p53 and p21waf1/cip1 were unchanged. Down-regulation of c-myc by its antisense oligonucleotides reduced apoptosis induction by indomethacin. TPA could inhibit indomethacin-induced apoptosis and accumulate cells in G2/M. Overexpression of c-myc was inhibited by TPA and p21waf1/cip1 mRNA increased. In conclusion, NSAIDs induce apoptosis in gastric cancer cells which may be mediated by up-regulation of c-myc proto-oncogene. PKC activation can abrogate the effects of NSAIDs by decreasing c-myc expression. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods: We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings: In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation: The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. // Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. // Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. // Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary: Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group