Household wealth, portfolio selection and consumption behavior

In the past twenty years, household wealth undergoes profound changes and in particular a notable increase of the share of financial wealth. The hike of stock market prices in the late 1990s, the burst of the speculative bubble since the summer of 2000 and the continued upsurge of housing prices lead to important swings of the value of household wealth. These large changes raise a number of issues concerning their consequences, both real - in terms of consumption and savings - and financial - in terms of portfolio selection. This article studies the break up of wealth between different assets (portfolio choice theory) and the impact of aggregate wealth on consumption (wealth effect), taking into account population ageing. The age of consumers indeed influences both the level of their savings (life-cycle theory) and their investment horizon (short vs. long-run). We should expect that older households, on average, would lean towards more liquid assets as their remaining life span is narrowing. The share of housing wealth in aggregate wealth should decrease. Population aging should also lead to an increase of the aggregate saving rate for at least the coming twenty years.household wealth, wealth effect, portfolio selection, population ageing

The NAIRU and the Wage-setting / price setting loop: a new skilled/unskilled specification

The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate has returned to the center of the economic debate in France. It derives from two macroeconomic equations. Wages are the result of wage bargaining on the labor market (wage-setting equation) and firms set the corresponding level of employment (price-setting equation). We revisit the wage-price loop by introducing two types of workers : skilled and unskilled. This enables us to distinguish two effects of social contributions on labor : a substitution effect due to the change in relative cost of workers, and the effect on the wedge of the wage bargaining process. We compute a long-term equilibrium unemployment rate that depends, in France, on the terms of trade, the employer social contributions rate for low-wage workers, and the real cost of capital. We finally include the wage-setting and price-setting equations in the French macroeconometric MESANGE model and carry out dynamic simulations in order to analyze the impact upon the French economy of simple shocks such as an increase in long-term labor productivity or an decrease in the rate of social contributions.wage bargaining, skills, unemployment, labor market policy

Demographic changes and economic growth: a macroeconomic projection for 2020

Exploring the economic consequences of demographic changes is often carried out within simple accounting frameworks. Such approaches consist of projecting the impact of ageing on social security expenditures under exogenous assumptions about economic growth, productivity, wages and employment. Alternative attempts to consider richer interactions between economic and demographic variables are carried out with calibrated computable general equilibrium models with overlapping generations. These models are basically neoclassical. Up to now in France, this question seldom has been examined with macroeconometric models of keynesian inspiration. Studying the results provided by such models for France may therefore be of interest. This is the purpose of this work, which presents an economic outlook for 2020 carried out with MESANGE macroeconometric model. This model has short term keynesian and long term neo-classical properties. This exercise integrates the impact of demographic changes on savings, consumption, social expenditures and disequilibrium on the labour market. Labour force projections and the natural dynamics of the model lead to employment levels that remain insufficient to ensure balance in social accounts. Additional taxes would therefore be required. Two possibilities are explored: the CSG or Generalized Social Contribution (a constant tax rate on capital and labor income) or employers and employees social contributions (with or without an impact of employees contributions on the fiscal wedge). The model predicts that the level of employment is less penalised by the former modality. We also explore the consequences of tougher conditions to get full pensions which, at the 2020 horizon, would lead to a one-year increase of the age of new retirees. In this case, the increase of the CSG that would be required to meet Maastricht criteria amounts to 4.3 points. Choosing between CSG and social contributions might nevertheless depend on other considerations, such as their incidence on the relative standards of living of workers and pensioners, or the wish to keep a strong correspondence between pension benefits and contributions paid during working life.retirement, ageing, growth, sustainability of public spending

Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting - the production function approach - in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast performance check a particular testing framework is derived that allows the computation of robust test statistics given the specific nature of the generated out-of sample forecasts. In addition, medium-term GDP projections from national and international institutions are examined and it is assessed whether these projections convey a reliable view about future economic developments and whether there is scope for improving their predictive content

MZE: a small macro-model for the euro area

This paper describes a small macro-model for the euro area. It has been built using Eurostat quarterly data and is aimed at improving the current tools used for forecasting and analysing the economy of the area. Some key data, such as capital stock or households disposable income, have been constructed beforehand by using partial data given by Eurostat. The model mingles short run Keynesian dynamics with a consistent neo-classical supply side. In the current version, potential output is given by a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function. Labour supply is determined via a Phillips curve or within a wage-setting framework and the rate of participation to the labour force depends on the rate of unemployment. The short run dynamics is determined by an error-correction model, which implicitly assumes the presence of adjustment costs that smooth the convergence towards the long run equilibrium. The properties of the model are satisfying in many ways. The forecasts given by the model can be favourably compared to those given by a Vector-Autoregression, using a few exogenous values reflecting both the foreign and monetary environment; the model also allows understanding the evolution of a range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the models responses to standard shocks are in line with usual analytical exercises. In the long run, potential output is determined by the working age population, total factor productivity, the terms of trade, wage taxation and the real cost of capital. The model can also be used with rational-expectation-hypothesis dealing with the exchange rate and the long-term interest rate. This enables an illustrative study for the choice of monetary reaction functions.Macroeconometric Modelling, Euro Area Dataset, Forecasting, Impulse Response, Rational Expectations, Monetary Reaction Functions