Comment on \u201cCan assimilation of crowdsourced data in hydrological modelling improve flood prediction?\u201d by Mazzoleni et al. (2017)

Citizen science and crowdsourcing are gaining increasing attention among hydrologists. In a recent contribution, Mazzoleni et al. (2017) investigated the integration of crowdsourced data (CSD) into hydrological models to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasts. The authors used synthetic CSD (i.e. not actually measured), because real CSD were not available at the time of the study. In their work, which is a proof-of-concept study, Mazzoleni et al. (2017) showed that assimilation of CSD improves the overall model performance; the impact of irregular frequency of available CSD, and that of data uncertainty, were also deeply assessed. However, the use of synthetic CSD in conjunction with (semi-)distributed hydrological models deserves further discussion. As a result of equifinality, poor model identifiability, and deficiencies in model structure, internal states of (semi-)distributed models can hardly mimic the actual states of complex systems away from calibration points. Accordingly, the use of synthetic CSD that are drawn from model internal states under best-fit conditions can lead to overestimation of the effectiveness of CSD assimilation in improving flood prediction. Operational flood forecasting, which results in decisions of high societal value, requires robust knowledge of the model behaviour and an in-depth assessment of both model structure and forcing data. Additional guidelines are given that are useful for the a priori evaluation of CSD for real-time flood forecasting and, hopefully, for planning apt design strategies for both model calibration and collection of CSD

Modelling urban floods using a finite element staggered scheme with an anisotropic dual porosity model

In porosity models for urban flooding, artificial porosity is used as a statistical descriptor of the urban medium. Buildings are treated as subgrid-scale features and, even with the use of relatively coarse grids, their effects on the flow are accounted for. Porosity models are attractive for large-scale applications due to limited computational demand with respect to solving the classical Shallow Water Equations on high-resolution grids. In the last decade, effective schemes have been developed that allowed accounting for a wealth of sub-grid processes; unfortunately, they are known to suffer from over-sensitivity to mesh design in the case of anisotropic porosity fields, which are typical of urban layouts. In the present study, a dual porosity approach is implemented into a two-dimensional Finite Element numerical scheme that uses a staggered unstructured mesh. The presence of buildings is modelled using an isotropic porosity in the continuity equation, to account for the reduced water storage, and a tensor formulation for conveyance porosity in the momentum equations, to account for anisotropy and effective flow velocity. The element-by-element definition of porosities, and the use of a staggered grid in which triangular cells convey fluxes and continuity is balanced at grid nodes, allow avoiding undesired mesh-dependency. Tested against refined numerical solutions and data from a laboratory experiment, the model provided satisfactory results. Model limitations are discussed in view of applications to more complex, real urban layouts

Modelling urban floods using a finite element staggered scheme with porosity and anisotropic resistance

Artificial porosity models for urban flooding use porosity as a statistical descriptor for the presence of buildings, which are then treated as subgridscale features. Computational efficiency makes porosity models attractive for large-scale applications. These models are typically implemented in the framework of two-dimensional (2D) finite volume collocated schemes. The most effective schemes, falling under the category of Integral Porosity models, allow accounting for a wealth of sub-grid processes, but they are known to suffer from oversensitivity to mesh design in the case of anisotropic porosity fields. In the present exploratory study, a dual porosity approach is implemented into a staggered finite element numerical model. The free surface elevation is defined at grid nodes, where continuity equation is solved; fluxes are conveyed by triangular cells, which act as 2D-links between adjacent grid nodes. The presence of building is modelled using an isotropic porosity in the continuity equation to account for the reduced water storage, and an anisotropic conveyance porosity in the momentum equations to compute bottom shear stress. Both porosities are defined on an element-by-element basis, thus avoiding mesh-dependency. Although suffering a number of limitations, the model shows promising results

Deconvolution of Images from BLAST 2005: Insight into the K3-50 and IC 5146 Star-forming Regions

We present an implementation of the iterative flux-conserving Lucy-Richardson (L-R) deconvolution method of image restoration for maps produced by the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (BLAST). Compared to the direct Fourier transform method of deconvolution, the L-R operation restores images with better-controlled background noise and increases source detectability. Intermediate iterated images are useful for studying extended diffuse structures, while the later iterations truly enhance point sources to near the designed diffraction limit of the telescope. The L-R method of deconvolution is efficient in resolving compact sources in crowded regions while simultaneously conserving their respective flux densities. We have analyzed its performance and convergence extensively through simulations and cross-correlations of the deconvolved images with available high-resolution maps. We present new science results from two BLAST surveys, in the Galactic regions K3-50 and IC 5146, further demonstrating the benefits of performing this deconvolution. We have resolved three clumps within a radius of 4'.5 inside the star-forming molecular cloud containing K3-50. Combining the well-resolved dust emission map with available multi-wavelength data, we have constrained the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of five clumps to obtain masses (M), bolometric luminosities (L), and dust temperatures (T). The L-M diagram has been used as a diagnostic tool to estimate the evolutionary stages of the clumps. There are close relationships between dust continuum emission and both 21 cm radio continuum and ^(12)CO molecular line emission. The restored extended large-scale structures in the Northern Streamer of IC 5146 have a strong spatial correlation with both SCUBA and high-resolution extinction images. A dust temperature of 12 K has been obtained for the central filament. We report physical properties of ten compact sources, including six associated protostars, by fitting SEDs to multi-wavelength data. All of these compact sources are still quite cold (typical temperature below ~ 16 K) and are above the critical Bonner-Ebert mass. They have associated low-power young stellar objects. Further evidence for starless clumps has also been found in the IC 5146 region

Correlations in the (Sub)millimeter Background from ACT × BLAST

We present measurements of the auto- and cross-frequency correlation power spectra of the cosmic (sub)millimeter background at 250, 350, and 500 μm (1200, 860, and 600 GHz) from observations made with the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (BLAST); and at 1380 and 2030 μm (218 and 148 GHz) from observations made with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). The overlapping observations cover 8.6 deg^2 in an area relatively free of Galactic dust near the south ecliptic pole. The ACT bands are sensitive to radiation from the cosmic microwave background, to the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect from galaxy clusters, and to emission by radio and dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs), while the dominant contribution to the BLAST bands is from DSFGs. We confirm and extend the BLAST analysis of clustering with an independent pipeline and also detect correlations between the ACT and BLAST maps at over 25σ significance, which we interpret as a detection of the DSFGs in the ACT maps. In addition to a Poisson component in the cross-frequency power spectra, we detect a clustered signal at 4σ, and using a model for the DSFG evolution and number counts, we successfully fit all of our spectra with a linear clustering model and a bias that depends only on redshift and not on scale. Finally, the data are compared to, and generally agree with, phenomenological models for the DSFG population. This study demonstrates the constraining power of the cross-frequency correlation technique to constrain models for the DSFGs. Similar analyses with more data will impose tight constraints on future models

Evidence for Environmental Changes in the Submillimeter Dust Opacity

The submillimeter opacity of dust in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) in the Galactic plane has been quantified using a pixel-by-pixel correlation of images of continuum emission with a proxy for column density. We used multi-wavelength continuum data: three Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope bands at 250, 350, and 500 μm and one IRAS band at 100 μm. The proxy is the near-infrared color excess, E(J – K_s), obtained from the Two Micron All Sky Survey. Based on observations of stars, we show how well this color excess is correlated with the total hydrogen column density for regions of moderate extinction. The ratio of emission to column density, the emissivity, is then known from the correlations, as a function of frequency. The spectral distribution of this emissivity can be fit by a modified blackbody, whence the characteristic dust temperature T and the desired opacity σ_e(1200) at 1200 GHz or 250 μm can be obtained. We have analyzed 14 regions near the Galactic plane toward the Vela molecular cloud, mostly selected to avoid regions of high column density (N_H > 10^(22) cm^(–2)) and small enough to ensure a uniform dust temperature. We find σ_e(1200) is typically (2-4) × 10^(–25) cm^2 H^(–1) and thus about 2-4 times larger than the average value in the local high Galactic latitude diffuse atomic ISM. This is strong evidence for grain evolution. There is a range in total power per H nucleon absorbed (and re-radiated) by the dust, reflecting changes in the strength of the interstellar radiation field and/or the dust absorption opacity. These changes in emission opacity and power affect the equilibrium T, which is typically 15 K, colder than at high latitudes. Our analysis extends, to higher opacity and lower temperature, the trend of increasing σ_e(1200) with decreasing T that was found at high latitudes. The recognition of changes in the emission opacity raises a cautionary flag because all column densities deduced from dust emission maps, and the masses of compact structures within them, depend inversely on the value adopted

The Balloon-Borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (BLAST) 2005: A 10 deg^2 Survey of Star Formation in Cygnus X

We present Cygnus X in a new multi-wavelength perspective based on an unbiased BLAST survey at 250, 350, and 500 μm, combined with rich data sets for this well-studied region. Our primary goal is to investigate the early stages of high-mass star formation. We have detected 184 compact sources in various stages of evolution across all three BLAST bands. From their well-constrained spectral energy distributions, we obtain the physical properties mass, surface density, bolometric luminosity, and dust temperature. Some of the bright sources reaching 40 K contain well-known compact H_(II) regions. We relate these to other sources at earlier stages of evolution via the energetics as deduced from their position in the luminosity-mass (L-M) diagram. The BLAST spectral coverage, near the peak of the spectral energy distribution of the dust, reveals fainter sources too cool (~10 K) to be seen by earlier shorter-wavelength surveys like IRAS. We detect thermal emission from infrared dark clouds and investigate the phenomenon of cold "starless cores" more generally. Spitzer images of these cold sources often show stellar nurseries, but these potential sites for massive star formation are "starless" in the sense that to date there is no massive protostar in a vigorous accretion phase. We discuss evolution in the context of the L-M diagram. Theory raises some interesting possibilities: some cold massive compact sources might never form a cluster containing massive stars, and clusters with massive stars might not have an identifiable compact cold massive precursor

Submillimetre observations of galaxy clusters with the BLAST: the star formation activity in Abell 3112

We present observations at 250, 350 and 500 μm of the nearby galaxy cluster Abell 3112 (z = 0.075) carried out with the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope. Five cluster members are individually detected as bright submillimetre (submm) sources. Their far-infrared spectral energy distributions and optical colours identify them as normal star-forming galaxies of high mass, with globally evolved stellar populations. They all have (B−R) colours of 1.38 ± 0.08, transitional between the blue, active population and the red, evolved galaxies that dominate the cluster core. We stack to estimate the mean submm emission from all cluster members, which is determined to be 16.6 ± 2.5, 6.1 ± 1.9 and 1.5 ± 1.3 mJy at 250, 350 and 500 μm, respectively. Stacking analyses of the submm emission of cluster members reveal trends in the mean far-infrared luminosity with respect to clustercentric radius and K_(S-)band magnitude. We find that a large fraction of submm emission comes from the boundary of the inner, virialized region of the cluster, at clustercentric distances around R_(500). Stacking also shows that the bulk of the submm emission arises in intermediate-mass galaxies with K_S magnitude ~1 mag fainter than the characteristic magnitude K^*_s. The results and constraints obtained in this work will provide a useful reference for the forthcoming surveys to be conducted on galaxy clusters by Herschel

The evolution of the dust and gas content in galaxies

We use deep Herschel observations taken with both PACS and SPIRE imaging cameras to estimate the dust mass of a sample of galaxies extracted from the GOODS-S, GOODS-N and the COSMOS fields. We divide the redshift–stellar mass (Mstar)–star formation rate (SFR) parameter space into small bins and investigate average properties over this grid. In the first part of the work we investigate the scaling relations between dust mass, stellar mass and SFR out to z = 2.5. No clear evolution of the dust mass with redshift is observed at a given SFR and stellar mass. We find a tight correlation between the SFR and the dust mass, which, under reasonable assumptions, is likely a consequence of the Schmidt-Kennicutt (S-K) relation. The previously observed correlation between the stellar content and the dust content flattens or sometimes disappears when considering galaxies with the same SFR. Our finding suggests that most of the correlation between dust mass and stellar mass obtained by previous studies is likely a consequence of the correlation between the dust mass and the SFR combined with the main sequence, i.e., the tight relation observed between the stellar mass and the SFR and followed by the majority of star-forming galaxies. We then investigate the gas content as inferred from dust mass measurements. We convert the dust mass into gas mass by assuming that the dust-to-gas ratio scales linearly with the gas metallicity (as supported by many observations). For normal star-forming galaxies (on the main sequence) the inferred relation between the SFR and the gas mass (integrated S-K relation) broadly agrees with the results of previous studies based on CO measurements, despite the completely different approaches. We observe that all galaxies in the sample follow, within uncertainties, the same S-K relation. However, when investigated in redshift intervals, the S-K relation shows a moderate, but significant redshift evolution. The bulk of the galaxy population at z ~ 2 converts gas into stars with an efficiency (star formation efficiency, SFE = SFR/M_gas, equal to the inverse of the depletion time) about 5 times higher than at z ~ 0. However, it is not clear what fraction of such variation of the SFE is due to an intrinsic redshift evolution and what fraction is simply a consequence of high-z galaxies having, on average, higher SFR, combined with the super-linear slope of the S-K relation (while other studies find a linear slope). We confirm that the gas fraction (f_gas = M_gas/(M_gas + M_star)) decreases with stellar mass and increases with the SFR. We observe no evolution with redshift once M_star and SFR are fixed. We explain these trends by introducing a universal relation between gas fraction, stellar mass and SFR that does not evolve with redshift, at least out to z ~ 2.5. Galaxies move across this relation as their gas content evolves across the cosmic epochs. We use the 3D fundamental f_gas–M_star–SFR relation, along with the evolution of the main sequence with redshift, to estimate the evolution of the gas fraction in the average population of galaxies as a function of redshift and as a function of stellar mass: we find that M_star ≳ 10^11 M_⊙ galaxies show the strongest evolution at z ≳ 1.3 and a flatter trend at lower redshift, while f_gas decreases more regularly over the entire redshift range probed in Mstar ≲ 10^11 M_⊙ galaxies, in agreement with a downsizing scenario