The mechanism of the Einstellung (set) effect: A pervasive source of cognitive bias

Copyright @ The Authors 2010The eye movements of expert players trying to solve a chess problem show that the first idea that comes to mind directs attention towards sources of information consistent with itself and away from inconsistent information. This bias continues unconsciously even when the player believes he is looking for alternatives. The result is that alternatives to the first idea are ignored. This mechanism for biasing attention ensures a speedy response in familiar situations but it can lead to errors when the first thought that comes to mind is not appropriate. We propose that this mechanism is the source of many cognitive biases from phenomena in problem solving and reasoning, to perceptual errors and failures in memory

Making mentoring work: The need for rewiring epistemology

To help produce expert coaches at both participation and performance levels, a number of governing bodies have established coach mentoring systems. In light of the limited literature on coach mentoring, as well as the risks of superficial treatment by coach education systems, this paper therefore critically discusses the role of the mentor in coach development, the nature of the mentor-mentee relationship and, most specifically, how expertise in the mentee may best be developed. If mentors are to be effective in developing expert coaches then we consequently argue that a focus on personal epistemology is required. On this basis, we present a framework that conceptualizes mentee development on this level through a step by step progression, rather than unrealistic and unachievable leap toward expertise. Finally, we consider the resulting implications for practice and research with respect to one-on-one mentoring, communities of practice, and formal coach education

PSYCHOLOGY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY

Key Words error and bias, tradeoff reasoning, prospect theory, accountability pressures, internalization s Abstract Organized around several major theoretical traditions in international relations, this essay suggests which literature in psychology should be of greatest interest to different kinds of international relations scholars. New work in cognitive social psychology and behavioral decision theory simultaneously expands on and qualifies earlier error-and-bias portraits of the foreign policy maker, thereby enriching our understanding of internal divisions within the realist camp. Work on bounded rationality in competitive markets and mixed-motive games, as well as the literature on the power of human emotions to shape judgments of what represents an equitable allocation of scarce resources or a just resolution of conflicts of interest, can inform neo-institutionalist and constructivist theories. Developments in cross-cultural social psychology shed light on constructivist arguments about the creation and maintenance of international social order that typically rest on assumptions about decision making that are qualitatively different from realist and institutionalist approaches to world politics

An extreme firm-specific news sentiment asymmetry based trading strategy

News sentiment has been empirically observed to have impact on financial market returns. In this study, we investigate firm-specific news from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics data from 2003 to 2014 and propose an optimal trading strategy based on a sentiment shock score and a sentiment trend score which measure extreme positive and negative sentiment levels for individual stocks. The intuition behind this approach is that the impact of events that generate extreme investor sentiment changes tends to have long and lasting effects to market movement and hence provides better prediction to market returns. We document that there exists an optimal signal region for both indicators. And we also show extreme positive sentiment provides better a signal than extreme negative sentiment, which presents an asymmetric market behavior in terms of news sentiment impact. The back test results show that extreme positive sentiment generates robust and superior trading signals in all market conditions, and its risk-adjusted returns significantly outperform the S&P 500 index over the same time period

Exploring the topology of the plausible: Fs/QCA counterfactual analysis and the plausible fit of unobserved organizational configurations

The main aim of this contribution is to expand the dominant rationale of organizational design research by including solutions and possibilities not observed in reality. We believe that the counterfactual approach to configurations responds to an open call in organization theory and strategy to move the modelling of fit towards a more robust and theory-based specification. With this new approach we propose to rediscover the roots of organization design as a distinct normative discipline that ‘should stand approximately in relation to the basic social sciences as engineering stands with respect to physical sciences or medicine to the biological’. At a more general level, our view implies an expansion of the dominant meaning of the concept of ‘relevance’ in management research. While we agree with Gulati (2007: 780) that we as scholars should probe ‘more deeply into the problems and other issues that managers care about’, we also believe that relevance does not necessarily mean that researchers have to use an ex-post rationality by studying only empirically frequent phenomena. In contrast, we think that any management esearcher should bring with her or himself a fragment of the spirit of the great Greek philosopher Anaximander (c. 610–c. 546 BC), who foresaw the concept of the infinite universe without the support of any empirical observation and against the predominant wisdom of the time. Not by chance, Karl Popper (1998) onsidered Anaximander’s intuitions among the most vivid demonstrations of the power of human thought and logic

Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget's ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions

Decisional Conflict and User Acceptance of Multicriteria Decision-Making Aids *

Despite the development of increasingly sophisticated and refined multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, an examination of the experimental evidence indicates that users most often prefer relatively unsophisticated methods. In this paper, we synthesize theories and empirical findings from the psychology of judgment and choice to provide a new theoretical explanation for such user preferences. Our argument centers on the assertion that the MCDM method preferred by decision makers is a function of the degree to which the method tends to introduce decisional conflict. The model we develop relates response mode, decision strategy, and the salience of decisional conflict to user preferences among decision aids. We then show that the model is consistent with empirical results in MCDM studies. Next, the role of decisional conflict in problem formulation aids is briefly discussed. Finally, we outline future research needed to thoroughly test the theoretical mechanisms we have proposed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73461/1/j.1540-5915.1991.tb00371.x.pd