System Analysis in International Development: From Concept to Application in Flood Prone Communities

Disasters pose a growing threat to sustainable development. Disaster risk management efforts have largely failed to arrest key drivers of uncontrolled urbanization and proliferation of assets in high risk areas. Systems analysis provides a unique interpretation of this failure, and a new pathway for remedy. Increasing “buzz” around the concept of disaster “resilience” (fundamentally a systems concept) has opened the door for the application of systems analysis in the complex arena of the social-ecological foundations of risk and development; yet it has been vaguely conceptualized, not offering a concrete approach to operationalization. We propose a conceptualization of disaster resilience built on system thinking. This conceptualization is centered on wellbeing (healthy system functioning) and explicitly draws attention to system interactions over the long term. We then present a systems analysis conceptual framework for exploring the real-world interconnections between disasters and development. Finally we outline how this framework has been applied with stakeholders in Peru, and present key lessons pertinent for researchers applying systems thinking in complex, socio-ecological governance settings

Assessing the resilience of a river management regime: Informal learning in a shadow network in the Tisza River Basin

Global sources of change offer unprecedented challenges to conventional river management strategies, which no longer appear capable of credibly addressing a trap: the failure of conventional river defense engineering to manage rising trends of disordering extreme events, including frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, and water stagnation in the Hungarian reaches of the Tisza River Basin. Extreme events punctuate trends of stagnation or decline in the ecosystems, economies, and societies of this river basin that extend back decades, and perhaps, centuries. These trends may be the long-term results of defensive strategies of the historical river management regime that reflect a paradigm dating back to the Industrial Revolution: "Protect the Landscape from the River." Since then all policies have defaulted to the imperatives of this paradigm such that it became the convention underlying the current river management regime. As an exponent of this convention the current river management regimes' methods, concepts, infrastructure, and paradigms that reinforce one another in setting the basin's development trajectory, have proven resilient to change from wars, political, and social upheaval for centuries. Failure to address the trap makes the current river management regimes resilience appear detrimental to the regions future development prospects and prompts demand for transformation to a more adaptive river management regime. Starting before transition to democracy, a shadow network has generated multiple dialogues in Hungary, informally exploring the roots of this trap as part of a search for ideas and methods to revitalize the region. We report on how international scientists joined one dialogue, applying system dynamics modeling tools to explore barriers and bridges to transformation of the current river management regime and develop the capacity for participatory science to expand the range of perspectives that inform, monitor, and revise learning, policy, and the practice of river management

Conceptual modeling for adaptive environmental assessment and management in the Barycz Valley, Lower Silesia, Poland

The complexity of interactions in socio-ecological systems makes it very difficult to plan and implement policies successfully. Traditional environmental management and assessment techniques produce unsatisfactory results because they often ignore facets of system structure that underlie complexity: delays, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Assuming that causes are linked in a linear chain, they concentrate on technological developments (“hard path”) as the only solutions to environmental problems. Adaptive Management is recognized as a promising alternative approach directly addressing links between social and ecological systems and involving stakeholders in the analysis and decision process. This “soft path” requires special tools to facilitate collaboration between “experts” and stakeholders in analyzing complex situations and prioritizing policies and actions. We have applied conceptual modeling to increase communication, understanding and commitment in the project of seven NGOs “Sustainable Regional Development in the Odra Catchment”. The main goal was to help our NGO partners to facilitate their efforts related to developing sustainable policies and practices to respond to large-scale challenges (EU accession, global changes in climate and economy) to their natural, economic and socio-cultural heritages. Among the variety of sustainability issues explored by these NGOs, two (extensive agricultural practices and “green” local products) were examined by using Adaptive Management (AM) as a framework that would link analysis, discussion, research, actions and monitoring. Within the AM framework the project coordinators used tools of systems analysis (Mental Model Mapping) to facilitate discussions in which NGO professionals and local stakeholders could graphically diagram and study their understanding of what factors interacted and how they affect the region’s sustainability. These discussions produced larger-scale Regional Sustainability Models as well as more detailed sub-models of particular factors, processes, and feedback loops that appear critical to a sustainable future. The Regional Sustainability Model was used to identify a subset of key interacting factors (variables). For each variable, several sustainability indicators were suggested. The growing understanding and acceptance of the AM framework and systems analysis created a momentum both locally and within the region, which makes continued successful use of these indicators quite likely. In contrast to expert-driven projects that inject outside knowledge into a local context, this project established a broad basis for stakeholder-driven discussion that is articulated into goals, objectives, conceptual models, and indicators. The ability to learn and adapt in the AM framework increases the capacity to innovate and find policies and practices that enhance resilience and sustainability in a world in transition

A game of common-pool resource management: Effects of communication, risky environment and worldviews

The ‘tragedy of the commons’ has been investigated for several decades. At its centre is the question whether a common resource will collapse under over-exploitation. The isolated analysis of one resource has many conceptual benefits, yet in reality resources and welfare are intertwined. In this paper, we investigate a situation where a resource which is exploited for profit has the additional feature of protecting against risk. Our main question is whether participants in an experimental game will prioritize such additional feature over maximizing profit and, if so, to what extent. Therefore, we designed a forest-harvesting game: Participants can harvest trees to generate income, and at the same time the forest serves as a protection against floods. Communication has been shown to play a vital role in managing commons. Our second aim is to test the importance of communication when the resource functions as a device of protecting against external risk. Lastly, we introduce a new perspective to the tragedy of the commons literature. Specifically, we investigate how the anthropologically motivated theory of risk perception (often called Cultural Theory) correlates with behaviour in our economic game. We believe that there is much potential in combining insights from these separate disciplines

Navigating Conservation-Development-Disaster Complexities in Social-Ecological Systems Using Role-play Serious Gaming

Globally natural disaster and climate change risk is on the rise, so does the uncertainty of their impact at local/regional scales. The increasing uncertainty in disaster and climate hazards creates daunting challenges for conservation and development, especially in Global Biodiversity Hotspots. Building resilience with limited resources in these complex Social-Ecological Systems require critical understanding of stakeholder cognitive and decision-making processes. Serious Game (aka social simulation) emerges as a new method to understand stakeholder decision-making and interaction under uncertainty and how resilience/vulnerability emerges as a result of such dynamic interactions. Simulation games is an effective education and communication tool in building soft skill capacities on communication, coordination, leadership, negotiation and collective action, which the current capacity-building system often do not provide

Thermodynamics of entropy-driven phase transformations

Thermodynamic properties of one-dimensional lattice models exhibiting entropy-driven phase transformations are discussed in quantum and classical regimes. Motivated by the multistability of compounds exhibiting photoinduced phase transitions, we consider systems with asymmetric, double, and triple well on-site potential. One finds that among a variety of regimes, quantum versus classical, discrete versus continuum, a key feature is asymmetry distinguished as a "shift" type and "shape" type in limiting cases. The behavior of the specific heat indicates one phase transformation in a "shift" type and a sequence of two phase transformations in "shape"-type systems. Future analysis in higher dimensions should allow us to identify which of these entropy-driven phase transformations would evolve into phase transitions of the first order