Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron. After optimizing our architecture with ALADIN and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model ANN/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the na\"ive persistence predictor. Note that in the stand alone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposedComment: Energy (2012)

Mechanisms of carbonyl activation by BINOL N-triflylphosphoramides: enantioselective nazarov cyclizations

BINOL N-triflylphosphoramides are versatile organocatalysts for reactions of carbonyl compounds. Upon activation by BINOL N-triflylphosphoramides, divinyl ketones undergo rapid and highly enantioselective (torquoselective) Nazarov cyclizations, making BINOL N-triflylphosphoramides one of the most important classes of catalysts for the Nazarov cyclization. However, the activation mechanism and the factors that determine enantioselectivity have not been established until now. Theoretical calculations with ONIOM and M06-2X are reported which examine how BINOL N-triflylphosphoramides activate divinyl ketones and control the torquoselectivity of the cyclization. Unexpectedly, the computations reveal that the traditionally accepted mechanisms for these catalysts (i.e., NH⋯O=C hydrogen bonding or proton transfer) are not the dominant activation mechanisms. Instead, the active catalyst is a less-stable tautomer of the phosphoramide containing a P(=NTf)OH group. Proton transfer from the catalyst to the substrate occurs concomitantly with ring closure. The enantioselectivities of Nazarov cyclizations of three different classes of divinyl ketones are shown to depend on a combination of factors, including catalyst distortion, the degree of proton transfer, intramolecular substrate stabilization, and intermolecular noncovalent interactions between the substrate and catalyst in the transition state, all of which relate to how well the cyclizing divinyl ketone fits into the chiral binding pocket of the catalyst

Evaluating a new logMAR chart designed to improve visual acuity assessment in population-based surveys.

AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate a new chart designed to improve the collection of visual acuity data in population-based surveys. The Reduced logMAR E chart (RLME) employs three letters per line, 'tumbling E' optotypes, and conforms to accepted contemporary design principles. METHODS: The performance of the chart was assessed within a population-based glaucoma survey in Thailand. Performance indices were test-retest variability (TRV) and agreement with acuity data measured using the ETDRS logMAR chart which acted as the 'gold standard'. RESULTS: The 95% confidence limits for TRV of RLME acuity data were +/-0.15 logMAR. This figure is consistent with published data on the TRV of acuities measured using five-letter-per-line logMAR charts. The mean difference between RLME and ETDRS acuity data was 0.00 logMAR (95% confidence intervals of +/-0.05 logMAR) indicating that RLME acuities agreed well with those of the ETDRS chart. The chart and its method of use was readily accepted by the local ancillary staff who required only minimal training before acuity measurement could be delegated to them. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated that the RLME chart is capable of accurate and repeatable acuity measurements. Certain aspects of the design of the RLME chart may be particularly pertinent to the measurement of vision in population-based surveys

Older Women's Fears Of Violence: The Need for Interventions that Enable Active Ageing

Women’s fear of violence can impact negatively on their active participation in life. An ageing survey conducted with 2620 Australian respondents aged 50 to 90 years examined aspects of work, learning, social, spiritual and emotional status, health, vision, home, life events, demographics, and asked an open ended question about what being actively engaged in life meant. Ordinal regression was carried out on two dependent variables: wanting and needing to learn to discourage violence. Analyses found that as women’s age increased, those on lower incomes were more likely than others to say they needed to learn how to discourage violence against them. This paper investigates the variables associated with the findings - transport, finances, news media, home safety, and reduced social interactions. Results highlight the importance of understanding women’s fear in the context of personal and social issues, and the need to provide learning opportunities to improve safety and social engagement

Mapping Factors Influencing the Selection of Subsea Petroleum Production Systems

Part 1: Production ProcessInternational audienceThe development, design and selection of subsea petroleum production equipment and facilities are critical activities, as the decisions made will impact the success and profitability of the project. Technical, economic and government regulations are some of the factors that need to be evaluated in order to contract subsea services and procurement activities. Pre-studies need to be conducted to design the best subsea concept and to assess the development costs in order to succeed in the project execution and to keep the production rate and profits as expected. There are many factors that should be addressed before selecting the concept. By identifying and studying these aspects, the project management will be able to develop an optimum production system and select the best equipment to cover the functions needed, as well as identify health, safety, environmental and quality requirements and spare parts’ availability for maintenance interventions. This will help to achieve the integrity of the installation and to reduce risks. In this paper we identify various aspects, factors and design criteria that need to be addressed in the design phase

A prospective study of (1)(8)FDG-PET with CT coregistration for radiation treatment planning of lymphomas and other hematologic malignancies

PURPOSE: This prospective single-institution study examined the impact of positron emission tomography (PET) with the use of 2-[(18)F] fluoro-2-deoxyglucose and computed tomography (CT) scan radiation treatment planning (TP) on target volume definition in lymphoma. METHODS AND MATERIALS: 118 patients underwent PET/CT TP during June 2007 to May 2009. Gross tumor volume (GTV) was contoured on CT-only and PET/CT studies by radiation oncologists (ROs) and nuclear medicine physicians (NMPs) for 95 patients with positive PET scans. Treatment plans and dose-volume histograms were generated for CT-only and PET/CT for 95 evaluable sites. Paired t test statistics and Pearson correlation coefficients were used for analysis. RESULTS: 70 (74%) patients had non-Hodgkin lymphoma, 10 (11%) had Hodgkin lymphoma, 12 (10%) had plasma-cell neoplasm, and 3 (3%) had other hematologic malignancies. Forty-three (45%) presented with relapsed/refractory disease. Forty-five (47%) received no prior chemotherapy. The addition of PET increased GTV as defined by ROs in 38 patients (median, 27%; range, 5%-70%) and decreased GTV in 41 (median, 39.5%; range, 5%-80%). The addition of PET increased GTV as defined by NMPs in 27 patients (median, 26.5%; range, 5%-95%) and decreased GTV in 52 (median, 70%; range, 5%-99%). The intraobserver correlation between CT-GTV and PET-GTV was higher for ROs than for NMPs (0.94,