A Probabilistic, Facility-Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location

A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision~ith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology

Weather research requirements to improve space launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

Weather has a large affect on operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Weather is the leading source of scrubs and delays to space launch from CCAFS/KSC. Weather has an even larger impact on ground processing as space launch vehicles and payloads are prepared in the months before space launch. Many of those operations are very sensitive to weather. In addition, the weather in Florida is notoriously difficult to predict, especially during the summer when rapid deep convection can occur in minutes. Finally, the weather can be extremely subtle in this area during summer, e.g. exceedingly weak low-level boundaries usually determine where thunderstorms form. The Air Force 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) provides comprehensive weather support to CCAFS/KSC. The 45WS uses one of the most dense and unique suite of weather sensors in operational meteorology to provide that weather support. The 45 WS has an active program of facilitating research and transitioning that research into operations. These efforts include working with universities, government agencies, and contractors. Of special note is NASA’s Applied Meteorology Unit, a NASA funded organization that performs technology transition to improve weather support to America’s space program. There are many areas of research that would help 45WS improve their weather support: lightning cessation, lightning onset, lightning detection/warnings/reports, convective winds, elevated peak winds in winter, and many others. The 45WS especially wants research to improve applications of two tools: local numerical models and dual polarization radar. This paper will also discuss opportunities for improved space weather support

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis

Evaluation of bio-integration of rat knee cartilage repair using in vivo MRI at 7T

National audienceHigh-field magnetic resonance systems allowing high-resolution magnetic resosnance imaging -HR-MRI) is a powerful research tool to visualize and examine hyaline cartilage of small joints non-invasively. Different studies have shown that qualitative assessment of degenerative joint disease, derived from MR images, was reliable. The capability to show pathologic changes throughout the time course of the disease from three-dimensional (3D) datasets has also been demonstrated. However, in vivo quantitative imaging for an accurate determination of cartilage thickness and volume is challenging due to small size of rodent joints and dedicated coils are mandatory. Surgical articular cartilage repair therapies for cartilage defects such as osteochondral autograft transfer, autologous chondrocyte implantation or matrix associated autologous cell transplantation require non invasive technique to evaluate longitudinally the biointegration of the graft. The aim of this study was to follow using 7T MRI the biointegration of biomaterials colonized by mesenchymal stem cells or not after implantation in a calibrated full thickness focal lesion in the rat knee

Design of a four-channel array coil for dual high-resolution rat knee MR Imaging

International audienc

Rare coding SNP in DZIP1 gene associated with late-onset sporadic Parkinson's disease

We present the first application of the hypothesis-rich mathematical theory to genome-wide association data. The Hamza et al. late-onset sporadic Parkinson's disease genome-wide association study dataset was analyzed. We found a rare, coding, non-synonymous SNP variant in the gene DZIP1 that confers increased susceptibility to Parkinson's disease. The association of DZIP1 with Parkinson's disease is consistent with a Parkinson's disease stem-cell ageing theory.Comment: 14 page

Land, history or modernization? Explaining ethnic fractionalization

Ethnic fractionalization (EF) is frequently used as an explanatory tool in models of economic development, civil war and public goods provision. However, if EF is endogenous to political and economic change, its utility for further research diminishes. This turns out not to be the case. This paper provides the first comprehensive model of EF as a dependent variable. It contributes new data on the founding date of the largest ethnic group in each state. It builds political and international variables into the analysis alongside historical and geoclimatic parameters. It extends previous work by testing models of politically relevant EF. In addition, this research interprets model results in light of competing theories of nationalism and political change. Results show that cross-national variation in EF is largely exogenous to modern politico-economic change. However, the data are inconclusive with respect to competing geoclimatic, historical institutional and modernist theories of ethnogenesis