Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13. Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch

Prevention of Neural Tube Defects: A Cross-Sectional Study of the Uptake of Folic Acid Supplementation in Nearly Half a Million Women

BACKGROUND: Taking folic acid supplements before pregnancy to reduce the risk of a neural tube defect (NTD) is especially important in countries without universal folic acid fortification. The extent of folic acid supplementation among women who had antenatal screening for Down's syndrome and NTDs at the Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, London between 1999 and 2012 was assessed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: 466,860 women screened provided details on folic acid supplementation. The proportion of women who took folic acid supplements before pregnancy was determined according to year and characteristics of the women. The proportion of women taking folic acid supplements before pregnancy declined from 35% (95% CI 34%-35%) in 1999-2001 to 31% (30%-31%) in 2011-2012. 6% (5%-6%) of women aged under 20 took folic acid supplements before pregnancy compared with 40% of women aged between 35 and 39. Non-Caucasian women were less likely to take folic acid supplements before pregnancy than Caucasian women; Afro-Caribbean 17% (16%-17%), Oriental 25% (24%-25%) and South Asian 20% (20%-21%) compared with 35% (35%-35%) for Caucasian women. 51% (48%-55%) of women who previously had an NTD pregnancy took folic acid supplements before the current pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The policy of folic acid supplementation is failing and has led to health inequalities. This study demonstrates the need to fortify flour and other cereal grain with folic acid in all countries of the world

Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools

BACKGROUND: Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results. METHODS: The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions. RESULTS: Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example, incidence of pneumonia, distribution of serotypes causing pneumonia) were influential parameters in the models we compared. Understanding the differences and similarities of such CE tools through regular comparisons could render decision-making processes in different countries more efficient, as well as providing guiding information for further clinical and epidemiological research. A tool comparison exercise using standardized data sets can help model developers to be more transparent about their model structure and assumptions and provide analysts and decision makers with a more in-depth view behind the disease dynamics. Adherence to the WHO guide of economic evaluations of immunization programs may also facilitate this process. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/9/55

Invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology and control measures: a framework for evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meningococcal disease can have devastating consequences. As new vaccines emerge, it is necessary to assess their impact on public health. In the absence of long-term real world data, modeling the effects of different vaccination strategies is required. Discrete event simulation provides a flexible platform with which to conduct such evaluations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A discrete event simulation of the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease was developed to quantify the potential impact of implementing routine vaccination of adolescents in the United States with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine protecting against serogroups A, C, Y, and W-135. The impact of vaccination is assessed including both the direct effects on individuals vaccinated and the indirect effects resulting from herd immunity. The simulation integrates a variety of epidemiologic and demographic data, with core information on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and outbreak frequency derived from data available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Simulation of the potential indirect benefits of vaccination resulting from herd immunity draw on data from the United Kingdom, where routine vaccination with a conjugate vaccine has been in place for a number of years. Cases of disease are modeled along with their health consequences, as are the occurrence of disease outbreaks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When run without a strategy of routine immunization, the simulation accurately predicts the age-specific incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and the site-specific frequency of outbreaks in the Unite States. 2,807 cases are predicted annually, resulting in over 14,000 potential life years lost due to invasive disease. In base case analyses of routine vaccination, life years lost due to infection are reduced by over 45% (to 7,600) when routinely vaccinating adolescents 12 years of age at 70% coverage. Sensitivity analyses indicate that herd immunity plays an important role when this population is targeted for vaccination. While 1,100 cases are avoided annually when herd immunity effects are included, in the absence of any herd immunity, the number of cases avoided with routine vaccination falls to 380 annually. The duration of vaccine protection also strongly influences results.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the absence of appropriate real world data on outcomes associated with large-scale vaccination programs, decisions on optimal immunization strategies can be aided by discrete events simulations such as the one described here. Given the importance of herd immunity on outcomes associated with routine vaccination, published estimates of the economic efficiency of routine vaccination with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine in the United States may have considerably underestimated the benefits associated with a policy of routine immunization of adolescents.</p

Riverhood: political ecologies of socionature commoning and translocal struggles for water justice

Mega-damming, pollution and depletion endanger rivers worldwide. Meanwhile, modernist imaginaries of ordering ‘unruly waters and humans’ have become cornerstones of hydraulic-bureaucratic and capitalist development. They separate hydro/social worlds, sideline river-commons cultures, and deepen socio-environmental injustices. But myriad new water justice movements (NWJMs) proliferate: rooted, disruptive, transdisciplinary, multi-scalar coalitions that deploy alternative river–society ontologies, bridge South–North divides, and translate river-enlivening practices from local to global and vice-versa. This paper's framework conceptualizes ‘riverhood’ to engage with NWJMs and river commoning initiatives. We suggest four interrelated ontologies, situating river socionatures as arenas of material, social and symbolic co-production: ‘river-as-ecosociety’, ‘river-as-territory’, ‘river-as-subject’, and ‘river-as-movement’

A Phase II, Randomized Study on an Investigational DTPw-HBV/Hib-MenAC Conjugate Vaccine Administered to Infants in Northern Ghana

BACKGROUND: Combining meningococcal vaccination with routine immunization in infancy may reduce the burden of meningococcal meningitis, especially in the meningitis belt of Africa. We have evaluated the immunogenicity, persistence of immune response, immune memory and safety of an investigational DTPw-HBV/Hib-MenAC conjugate vaccine given to infants in Northern Ghana. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this phase II, double blind, randomized, controlled study, 280 infants were primed with DTPw-HBV/Hib-MenAC or DTPw-HBV/Hib vaccines at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age. At 12 months of age, children in each group received a challenge dose of serogroup A+C polysaccharides. Antibody responses were assessed pre, and one month-post dose 3 of the priming schedule and pre and 1 month after administration of the challenge dose. One month post-dose 3, 87.8% and 88.2% of subjects in the study group had bactericidal meningococcal serogroup A (SBA-MenA) and meningococcal serogroup C (SBA-MenC) antibody titres > or = 1:8 respectively. Seroprotection/seropositivity rates to the 5 antigens administered in the routine EPI schedule were non-inferior in children in the study group compared to those in the control group. The percentages of subjects in the study group with persisting SBA-MenA titres > or = 1:8 or SBA-MenC titres > or = 1:8 at the age of 12 months prior to challenge were significantly higher than in control group (47.7% vs 25.7% and 56.4% vs 5.1% respectively). The administration of 10 microg of serogroup A polysaccharide increased the SBA-MenA GMT by 14.0-fold in the DTPW-HBV/HibMenAC-group compared to a 3.8 fold increase in the control-group. Corresponding fold-increases in SBA-MenC titres following challenge with 10 microg of group C polysaccharide were 18.8 and 1.9 respectively. Reactogenicity following primary vaccination or the administration of the challenge dose was similar in both groups, except for swelling (Grade 3) after primary vaccination which was more frequent in children in the vaccine than in the control group (23.7%; 95%CI [19.6-28.1] of doses vs 14.1%; 95% CI [10.9-17.8] of doses). Fifty-nine SAEs (including 8 deaths), none of them related to vaccination, were reported during the entire study. CONCLUSIONS: Three dose primary vaccination with DTPw-HBV/Hib-MenAC was non-inferior to DTPw-HBV/Hib for the 5 common antigens used in the routine EPI schedule and induced bactericidal antibodies against Neisseria meningitidis of serogroups A and C in the majority of infants. Serogroup A and C bactericidal antibody levels had fallen below titres associated with protection in nearly half of the infants by the age of 12 months confirming that a booster dose is required at about that age. An enhanced memory response was shown after polysaccharide challenge. This vaccine could provide protection against 7 important childhood diseases (including meningococcal A and C) and be of particular value in countries of the African meningitis belt. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN35754083

Periconceptional Maternal Folic Acid Use of 400 µg per Day Is Related to Increased Methylation of the IGF2 Gene in the Very Young Child

Background: Countries worldwide recommend women planning pregnancy to use daily 400 mg of synthetic folic acid in the periconceptional period to prevent birth defects in children. The underlying mechanisms of this preventive effect are not clear, however, epigenetic modulation of growth processes by folic acid is hypothesized. Here, we investigated whether periconceptional maternal folic acid use and markers of global DNA methylation potential (S-adenosylmethionine and S-adenosylhomocysteine blood levels) in mothers and children affect methylation of the insulin-like growth factor 2 gene differentially methylation region (IGF2 DMR) in the child. Moreover, we tested whether the methylation of the IGF2 DMR was independently associated with birth weight. Methodology/Principal Findings: IGF2 DMR methylation in 120 children aged 17 months (SD 0.3) of whom 86 mothers had used and 34 had not used folic acid periconceptionally were studied. Methylation was measured of 5 CpG dinucleotides covering the DMR using a mass spectrometry-based method. Children of mother who used folic acid had a 4.5% higher methylation of the IGF2 DMR than children who were not exposed to folic acid (49.5% vs. 47.4%; p = 0.014). IGF2 DMR methylation of the children also was associated with the S-adenosylmethionine blood level of the mother but not of the child (+1.7% methylation per SD S-adenosylmethionine; p = 0.037). Finally, we observed an inverse independent association between IGF2 DMR methylation and birth weight (-1.7% methylation per SD birthweight; p = 0.034). Conclusions: Periconceptional folic acid use is associated with epigenetic changes in IGF2 in the child that may affect intrauterine programming of growth and development with consequences for health and disease throughout life. These results indicate plasticity of IGF2 methylation by periconceptional folic acid use