49 research outputs found
Weakly Convergent Nonparametric Forecasting of Stationary Time Series
The conditional distribution of the next outcome given the infinite past of a
stationary process can be inferred from finite but growing segments of the
past. Several schemes are known for constructing pointwise consistent
estimates, but they all demand prohibitive amounts of input data. In this paper
we consider real-valued time series and construct conditional distribution
estimates that make much more efficient use of the input data. The estimates
are consistent in a weak sense, and the question whether they are pointwise
consistent is still open. For finite-alphabet processes one may rely on a
universal data compression scheme like the Lempel-Ziv algorithm to construct
conditional probability mass function estimates that are consistent in expected
information divergence. Consistency in this strong sense cannot be attained in
a universal sense for all stationary processes with values in an infinite
alphabet, but weak consistency can. Some applications of the estimates to
on-line forecasting, regression and classification are discussed
Ergodicity, Decisions, and Partial Information
In the simplest sequential decision problem for an ergodic stochastic process
X, at each time n a decision u_n is made as a function of past observations
X_0,...,X_{n-1}, and a loss l(u_n,X_n) is incurred. In this setting, it is
known that one may choose (under a mild integrability assumption) a decision
strategy whose pathwise time-average loss is asymptotically smaller than that
of any other strategy. The corresponding problem in the case of partial
information proves to be much more delicate, however: if the process X is not
observable, but decisions must be based on the observation of a different
process Y, the existence of pathwise optimal strategies is not guaranteed.
The aim of this paper is to exhibit connections between pathwise optimal
strategies and notions from ergodic theory. The sequential decision problem is
developed in the general setting of an ergodic dynamical system (\Omega,B,P,T)
with partial information Y\subseteq B. The existence of pathwise optimal
strategies grounded in two basic properties: the conditional ergodic theory of
the dynamical system, and the complexity of the loss function. When the loss
function is not too complex, a general sufficient condition for the existence
of pathwise optimal strategies is that the dynamical system is a conditional
K-automorphism relative to the past observations \bigvee_n T^n Y. If the
conditional ergodicity assumption is strengthened, the complexity assumption
can be weakened. Several examples demonstrate the interplay between complexity
and ergodicity, which does not arise in the case of full information. Our
results also yield a decision-theoretic characterization of weak mixing in
ergodic theory, and establish pathwise optimality of ergodic nonlinear filters.Comment: 45 page
An open Problem on Strongly Consistent Learning of the Best Prediction for Gaussian Processes
The RTU Graduate School Executive Master's Program for school year 2011-2012 as viewed by its respondents
This study was conducted to ascertain the views and opinions of the faculty and personnel as recipients of the Rizal Technological University (RTU) Graduate School Executive Master's program as to its reasons for availment, importance of the core and major subjects of the curriculum, lecturers' professional skills, duration/time allotment, level of satisfaction, significant difference of the two programs, problem encountered and gathered possible solutions to the problems; determine whether the Executive Master's Program was able to realize its goals and objectives and find out the overall impression of the recipients about the Executive Master's Program. A total of fifty (50) RTU faculty and personnel graduated from this Executive Master's program, twenty six (26) Master of Arts in Education (MAEd) and twenty four (24) Master of Arts in Engineering (MAE)
The Value of Information for Populations in Varying Environments
The notion of information pervades informal descriptions of biological
systems, but formal treatments face the problem of defining a quantitative
measure of information rooted in a concept of fitness, which is itself an
elusive notion. Here, we present a model of population dynamics where this
problem is amenable to a mathematical analysis. In the limit where any
information about future environmental variations is common to the members of
the population, our model is equivalent to known models of financial
investment. In this case, the population can be interpreted as a portfolio of
financial assets and previous analyses have shown that a key quantity of
Shannon's communication theory, the mutual information, sets a fundamental
limit on the value of information. We show that this bound can be violated when
accounting for features that are irrelevant in finance but inherent to
biological systems, such as the stochasticity present at the individual level.
This leads us to generalize the measures of uncertainty and information usually
encountered in information theory
A Polynomial Optimization Approach to Constant Rebalanced Portfolio Selection
We address the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with the constant rebalancing strategy. This problem is formulated as a polynomial optimization problem (POP) by using a mean-variance criterion. In order to solve the POPs of high degree, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm based on semidefinite programming. Our algorithm can solve problems that can not be handled by any of known polynomial optimization solvers.
Strong universal pointwise consistency of some regression function estimates
The strong universal pointwise consistency of some modified versions of the standard regression function estimates of partitioning, kernel, and nearest neighbor type is shown
ASYMPTOTICALLY OPTIMAL PORTFOLIOS
This paper extends to continuous time the concept of universal portfolio introduced by Cover (1991). Being a performance weighted average of constant rebalanced portfolios, the universal portfolio outperforms constant rebalanced and buy-and-hold portfolios exponentially over the long run. an asymptotic formula summarizing its long-term performance is reported that supplements the one given by Cover. A criterion in terms of long-term averages of instantaneous stock drifts and covariances is found which determines the particular form of the asymptotic growth. A formula for the expected universal wealth is given. Copyright 1992 Blackwell Publishers.