A Fresh Approach to Forecasting in Astroparticle Physics and Dark Matter Searches

We present a toolbox of new techniques and concepts for the efficient forecasting of experimental sensitivities. These are applicable to a large range of scenarios in (astro-)particle physics, and based on the Fisher information formalism. Fisher information provides an answer to the question what is the maximum extractable information from a given observation?. It is a common tool for the forecasting of experimental sensitivities in many branches of science, but rarely used in astroparticle physics or searches for particle dark matter. After briefly reviewing the Fisher information matrix of general Poisson likelihoods, we propose very compact expressions for estimating expected exclusion and discovery limits (equivalent counts method). We demonstrate by comparison with Monte Carlo results that they remain surprisingly accurate even deep in the Poisson regime. We show how correlated background systematics can be efficiently accounted for by a treatment based on Gaussian random fields. Finally, we introduce the novel concept of Fisher information flux. It can be thought of as a generalization of the commonly used signal-to-noise ratio, while accounting for the non-local properties and saturation effects of background and instrumental uncertainties. It is a powerful and flexible tool ready to be used as core concept for informed strategy development in astroparticle physics and searches for particle dark matter.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figure

Is the 130 GeV Line Real? A Search for Systematics in the Fermi-LAT Data

Our recent claims of a Galactic center feature in Fermi-LAT data at approximately 130 GeV have prompted an avalanche of papers proposing explanations ranging from dark matter annihilation to exotic pulsar winds. Because of the importance of such interpretations for physics and astrophysics, a discovery will require not only additional data, but a thorough investigation of possible LAT systematics. While we do not have access to the details of each event reconstruction, we do have information about each event from the public event lists and spacecraft parameter files. These data allow us to search for suspicious trends that could indicate a spurious signal. We consider several hypotheses that might make an instrumental artifact more apparent at the Galactic center, and find them implausible. We also search for an instrumental signature in the Earth limb photons, which provide a smooth reference spectrum for null tests. We find no significant 130 GeV feature in the Earth limb sample. However, we do find a marginally significant 130 GeV feature in Earth limb photons with a limited range of detector incidence angles. This raises concerns about the 130 GeV Galactic center feature, even though we can think of no plausible model of instrumental behavior that connects the two. A modest amount of additional limb data would tell us if the limb feature is a statistical fluke. If the limb feature persists, it would raise doubts about the Pass 7 processing of E > 100 GeV events. At present we find no instrumental systematics that could plausibly explain the excess Galactic center emission at 130 GeV.Comment: 16 pages, 22 figure

Bayesian Model Comparison and Analysis of the Galactic Disk Population of Gamma-Ray Millisecond Pulsars

Pulsed emission from almost one hundred millisecond pulsars (MSPs) has been detected in $\gamma$-rays by the Fermi Large-Area Telescope. The global properties of this population remain relatively unconstrained despite many attempts to model their spatial and luminosity distributions. We perform here a self-consistent Bayesian analysis of both the spatial distribution and luminosity function simultaneously. Distance uncertainties, arising from errors in the parallax measurement or Galactic electron-density model, are marginalized over. We provide a public Python package for calculating distance uncertainties to pulsars derived using the dispersion measure by accounting for the uncertainties in Galactic electron-density model YMW16. Finally, we use multiple parameterizations for the MSP population and perform Bayesian model comparison, finding that a broken power law luminosity function with Lorimer spatial profile are preferred over multiple other parameterizations used in the past. The best-fit spatial distribution and number of $\gamma$-ray MSPs is consistent with results for the radio population of MSPs.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables + Appendix. Public code and source list available from http://github.com/tedwards2412/MSPDis

A Unique Multi-Messenger Signal of QCD Axion Dark Matter

We propose a multi-messenger probe of QCD axion Dark Matter based on observations of black hole-neutron star binary inspirals. It is suggested that a dense Dark Matter spike may grow around intermediate mass black holes ($10^{3}-10^{5} \mathrm{\,M_{\odot}}$). The presence of such a spike produces two unique effects: a distinct phase shift in the gravitational wave strain during the inspiral and an enhancement of the radio emission due to the resonant axion-photon conversion occurring in the neutron star magnetosphere throughout the inspiral and merger. Remarkably, the observation of the gravitational wave signal can be used to infer the Dark Matter density and, consequently, to predict the radio emission. We study the projected reach of the LISA interferometer and next-generation radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array. Given a sufficiently nearby system, such observations will potentially allow for the detection of QCD axion Dark Matter in the mass range $10^{-7}\,\mathrm{eV}$ to $10^{-5}\,\mathrm{eV}$.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Appendix added with additional figures. Updated to published versio