Tony Blair and John Howard: comparative predominance and 'Institution Stretch' in the UK and Australia

It has recently been argued that the UK premier enjoys a level of executive power unavailable to US presidents, but how does he or she compare to another prime minister operating within a broadly similar system? Commonalities of intra-executive influence and capacity exist under the premierships in the UK and Australia. Discrete institutional constraints and deviations are evident, but trends and similarities in resource capacity can be clearly identified. These include: the growth of the leaders' office; broadening and centralising of policy advice and media operations; and strengthening of the role and function of ministerial advisers. I contend that this amounts to 'institution stretch', with new structures, processes and practices becoming embedded in the political system by the incumbents. © 2007 The Author. Journal compilation © 2007 Political Studies Association

High prevalence of subclinical tuberculosis in HIV-1-infected persons without advanced immunodeficiency: implications for TB screening

Background The prevalence of asymptomatic tuberculosis (TB) in recently diagnosed HIV-1-infected persons attending pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics is not well described. In addition, it is unclear if the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in these patients clearly represents an early asymptomatic phase leading to progressive disease or transient excretion of bacilli. Objective To describe the prevalence and outcome of subclinical TB disease in HIV-1-infected persons not eligible for ART. Methods The study was conducted in 274 asymptomatic ART-naive HIV-1-infected persons in Khayelitsha Day Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa. All participants were screened for TB using a symptom screen and spoligotyping was performed to determine genotypes. Results The prevalence of subclinical TB disease was 8.5% (95% CI 5.1% to 13.0%) (n = 18; median days to culture positivity 17 days), with 22% of patients being smear-positive. Spoligotyping showed a diverse variety of genotypes with all paired isolates being of the same spoligotype, effectively excluding cross-contamination. 56% of patients followed up developed symptoms 3 days to 2 months later. All were well and still in care 6-12 months after TB diagnosis; 60% were started on ART. A positive tuberculin skin test (OR 4.96, p = 0.064), low CD4 count (OR 0.996, p = 0.06) and number of years since HIV diagnosis (OR 1.006, p = 0.056) showed trends towards predicting TB disease. Conclusion This study found a high prevalence but good outcome (retained in care) of subclinical TB disease in HIV-1-infected persons. The results suggest that, in high HIV/TB endemic settings, a positive HIV-1 test should prompt TB screening by sputum culture irrespective of symptoms, particularly in those with a positive tuberculin skin test, longer history of HIV infection and low CD4 count. Operational difficulties in resource-constrained settings with respect to screening with TB culture highlight the need for rapid and affordable point-of-care tests to identify persons with clinical and subclinical TB disease.Immunogenetics and cellular immunology of bacterial infectious disease

"It All Ended in an Unsporting Way": Serbian Football and the Disintegration of Yugoslavia, 1989-2006

Part of a wider examination into football during the collapse of Eastern European Communism between 1989 and 1991, this article studies the interplay between Serbian football and politics during the period of Yugoslavia's demise. Research utilizing interviews with individuals directly involved in the Serbian game, in conjunction with contemporary Yugoslav media sources, indicates that football played an important proactive role in the revival of Serbian nationalism. At the same time the Yugoslav conflict, twinned with a complex transition to a market economy, had disastrous consequences for football throughout the territories of the former Yugoslavia. In the years following the hostilities the Serbian game has suffered decline, major financial hardship and continuing terrace violence, resulting in widespread nostalgia for the pre-conflict era

Assessing the authority of political office-holders: the leadership capital index

This article argues that the extent to which political office-holders can effectively attain and wield authority is a function of the stock of ‘leadership capital.’ Drawing on the concept of political capital, we define leadership capital as aggregate authority composed of three dimensions: skills; relations; and reputation of a leader. Leadership capital ebbs and flows over time within a trajectory of acquisition, expenditure and inevitable depreciation. We present a Leadership Capital Index (LCI) that systematically maps out the three broad areas combining concrete measures with interpretive aspects. This can be used as a tool for systematically tracking and comparing the political fortunes of leaders in a way that is both more nuanced and robust than exclusive reliance on the latest approval ratings. We offer an illustrative case study of Tony Blair demonstrating the LCI. We conclude by discerning several promising paths for future development of the LCI

Bounded rationality and the Brexit negotiations:Why Britain failed to understand the EU

Research on the Brexit negotiations has linked the problems faced by Britain to flawed assumptions in the UK’s perception of EU interests. These include the idea that the EU would be open to compromise on key principles, that it would offer the UK a bespoke relationship, that national capitals would respond favourably to bilateral initiatives, and that EU unity would not hold. Yet the origins of these assumptions have been subject to little systematic scrutiny. How did such wrong-headed assumptions about the EU’s interests emerge? Drawing on insights from bounded rationality we identify three aspects of the decision-making environment linked with biased thinking: (1) ill-fitting routines and lessons, (2) a lack of decision-making openness, and (3) a lack of EU expertize and contact. We demonstrate our argument using data obtained from interviews in Brussels and London in 2017–18 and accounts of those involved in the decisions

The Influence of HIV on the Evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

HIV significantly affects the immunological environment during tuberculosis coinfection, and therefore may influence the selective landscape upon which M. tuberculosis evolves. To test this hypothesis whole genome sequences were determined for 169 South African M. tuberculosis strains from HIV-1 coinfected and uninfected individuals and analyzed using two Bayesian codon-model based selection analysis approaches: FUBAR which was used to detect persistent positive and negative selection (selection respectively favoring and disfavoring nonsynonymous substitutions); and MEDS which was used to detect episodic directional selection specifically favoring nonsynonymous substitutions within HIV-1 infected individuals. Among the 25,251 polymorphic codon sites analyzed, FUBAR revealed that 189-fold more were detectably evolving under persistent negative selection than were evolving under persistent positive selection. Three specific codon sites within the genes celA2b, katG, and cyp138 were identified by MEDS as displaying significant evidence of evolving under directional selection influenced by HIV-1 coinfection. All three genes encode proteins that may indirectly interact with human proteins that, in turn, interact functionally with HIV proteins. Unexpectedly, epitope encoding regions were enriched for sites displaying weak evidence of directional selection influenced by HIV-1. Although the low degree of genetic diversity observed in our M. tuberculosis data set means that these results should be interpreted carefully, the effects of HIV-1 on epitope evolution in M. tuberculosis may have implications for the design of M. tuberculosis vaccines that are intended for use in populations with high HIV-1 infection rates

Celecoxib exerts protective effects in the vascular endothelium via COX-2-independent activation of AMPK-CREB-Nrf2 signalling

Although concern remains about the athero-thrombotic risk posed by cyclo-oxygenase (COX)-2-selective inhibitors, recent data implicates rofecoxib, while celecoxib appears equivalent to NSAIDs naproxen and ibuprofen. We investigated the hypothesis that celecoxib activates AMP kinase (AMPK) signalling to enhance vascular endothelial protection. In human arterial and venous endothelial cells (EC), and in contrast to ibuprofen and naproxen, celecoxib induced the protective protein heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). Celecoxib derivative 2,5-dimethyl-celecoxib (DMC) which lacks COX-2 inhibition also upregulated HO-1, implicating a COX-2-independent mechanism. Celecoxib activated AMPKα(Thr172) and CREB-1(Ser133) phosphorylation leading to Nrf2 nuclear translocation. Importantly, these responses were not reproduced by ibuprofen or naproxen, while AMPKα silencing abrogated celecoxib-mediated CREB and Nrf2 activation. Moreover, celecoxib induced H-ferritin via the same pathway, and increased HO-1 and H-ferritin in the aortic endothelium of mice fed celecoxib (1000 ppm) or control chow. Functionally, celecoxib inhibited TNF-α-induced NF-κB p65(Ser536) phosphorylation by activating AMPK. This attenuated VCAM-1 upregulation via induction of HO-1, a response reproduced by DMC but not ibuprofen or naproxen. Similarly, celecoxib prevented IL-1β-mediated induction of IL-6. Celecoxib enhances vascular protection via AMPK-CREB-Nrf2 signalling, a mechanism which may mitigate cardiovascular risk in patients prescribed celecoxib. Understanding NSAID heterogeneity and COX-2-independent signalling will ultimately lead to safer anti-inflammatory drugs

Radical nostalgia, progressive patriotism and Labour's 'English problem'

‘Progressive patriots’ have long argued that Englishness can form the basis of a transformative political project, whether based on an historic tradition of resistance to state power or an open and cosmopolitan identity. However, this article suggests that the politics of Englishness present a number of specific dilemmas for Labour. First the historical narrative of a radical tradition in British history is not straightforwardly English and cannot easily be used to support a competitive politics of nationhood, in the way that disaffected English identifiers might desire. Second, the deliberately alternative nature of this ‘radical nostalgic’ narrative makes it an unlikely basis for a unifying national story. It is also at odds with Labour’s status as a successful party of government, committed to using the power of the British state, rather than opposing it. Finally, while ‘everyday Englishness’ may well align with core Labour values and be less socially conservative, intolerant or racially exclusive than it is often described, its very nature as an everyday practice, rather than a political identity makes it difficult for Labour to co-opt