SARA LEE FOODS TAKES FLIGHT: AN ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A TURKEY PLANT CLOSURE

In 1998, the Sara Lee Corporation implemented a corporate strategy of deverticalization. Bil Mar Foods, Inc., a subsidiary of Sara Lee responsible for the processing of packaged meat products, followed the strategy by shutting down its turkey slaughter facility in Zeeland, Michigan. As a consequence, turkey growers in Michigan were left with no viable outlet for live bird slaughter and the potential end of live bird production in the region. This study analyzes the economic impact associated with the cessation of live bird slaughter at the Bil Mar Foods plant. The economic consequences may be as high as an $81 million loss in total industry output, a$29 million loss in income, and a total employment loss of nearly 800 jobs. Faced with these economic consequences, turkey growers in the region joined forces to form a valued-added cooperative.impact analysis, plant closure, turkey industry, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Livestock Production/Industries,

It Could Not Be Seen Because It Could Not Be Believed on June 30, 2013

Nineteen Prescott Fire Department, Granite Mountain Hot Shot (GMHS) wildland firefighters (WF) perished in Arizona in June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire, an inexplicable wildland fire disaster. In complex wildland fires, sudden, dynamic changes in human factors and fire conditions can occur, thus mistakes can be unfortunately fatal. Individual and organizational faults regarding the predictable, puzzling, human failures that will result in future WF deaths are addressed. The GMHS were individually, then collectively fixated with abandoning their Safety Zone to reengage, committing themselves at the worst possible time, to relocate to another Safety Zone - a form of collective tunnel vision. Our goal is to provoke meaningful discussion toward improved wildland firefighter safety with practical solutions derived from a long-established wildland firefighter expertise/performance in a fatality-prone profession. Wildfire fatalities are unavoidable, hence these proposals, applied to ongoing training, can significantly contribute to other well-thought-out and validated measures to reduce them

Nonparametric Markovian Learning of Triggering Kernels for Mutually Exciting and Mutually Inhibiting Multivariate Hawkes Processes

In this paper, we address the problem of fitting multivariate Hawkes processes to potentially large-scale data in a setting where series of events are not only mutually-exciting but can also exhibit inhibitive patterns. We focus on nonparametric learning and propose a novel algorithm called MEMIP (Markovian Estimation of Mutually Interacting Processes) that makes use of polynomial approximation theory and self-concordant analysis in order to learn both triggering kernels and base intensities of events. Moreover, considering that N historical observations are available, the algorithm performs log-likelihood maximization in $O(N)$ operations, while the complexity of non-Markovian methods is in $O(N^{2})$. Numerical experiments on simulated data, as well as real-world data, show that our method enjoys improved prediction performance when compared to state-of-the art methods like MMEL and exponential kernels

Defining and refining effectiveness: Applying narrative and dialogue methods in aid monitoring and evaluation

In this chapter we argue that definitions of 'effectiveness' should be negotiated and that this can be assisted through the careful selection of monitoring and evaluation methods. A flexible view of 'effectiveness' is necessary because the world is complex and ever-changing, and even more importantly because the concept is contended. Inevitably, different stakeholders in development aid hold different perspectives about what 'effectiveness' means in their context. We propose that the use of certain types of qualitative methods in monitoring and evaluation is an important way to promote dialogue on the different definitions of effectiveness between stakeholders. In support of our argument, we demonstrate how two open-ended inquiry methods were applied in the field to first define and then refine the meaning of effectiveness. We also apply a validation framework to test the quality of these methods and to generate insight into the strengths and weaknesses of their application in the field. A key strength of these methods is found to be their attention to capturing diversity of perspective. In addition, both the narrative and dialogue methods are seen to indeed facilitate the negotiation of meaning of effectiveness between the different project stakeholders. We conclude that a thoughtful and flexible approach to monitoring and evaluation that incorporates such qualitative methods enables effectiveness to be defined and refined, and is conducive to more appropriate, better managed aid.© 2007 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved

Local perspectives on weirs in the Upper Nepean

The Independent Expert Panel of the HawkesburyâNepean River Management Forum commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to conduct research into the values held by river users and community members in relation to the weirs on the Upper Nepean River and concerns they would have with any change to the current situation. The weirs at the centre of this research are Bergins, Thurns, Sharpes and Brownlow Hill. The research questions guiding the project are: What is the nature of the social and economic relationship between people and weirs at a local level In what ways would people want to participate in decisions about the weirs and river management Local people were asked about how they use the weirs, what value they see the weirs having for their community, culture and industry and what concerns there may be about potential changes. The research aims to help the Expert Panel and the Forum make appropriate decisions about potential retention, modification or removal of the weirs and the fishways associated with them. A further aim is to facilitate public participation in the decision-making process. Within any community, there are different individuals and groups with diverse interests and experiences. These differences might result in multiple perspectives between and within groups. To differentiate some of these perspectives, the broader community was divided into four sectors: general public, community groups, identifiable water users such as irrigators and recreational users and Indigenous groups. The general public participants emphasised the aesthetic and leisure value of the river. They appear to identify very strongly with the river, with participants interpreting the existence of the weirs as integral to both the riverâs survival and the ongoing economic survival of the region. The findings indicate that this group view the weirs as an integral part of the river and the river as an integral part of the Camden community

First-Order Provenance Games

We propose a new model of provenance, based on a game-theoretic approach to query evaluation. First, we study games G in their own right, and ask how to explain that a position x in G is won, lost, or drawn. The resulting notion of game provenance is closely related to winning strategies, and excludes from provenance all "bad moves", i.e., those which unnecessarily allow the opponent to improve the outcome of a play. In this way, the value of a position is determined by its game provenance. We then define provenance games by viewing the evaluation of a first-order query as a game between two players who argue whether a tuple is in the query answer. For RA+ queries, we show that game provenance is equivalent to the most general semiring of provenance polynomials N[X]. Variants of our game yield other known semirings. However, unlike semiring provenance, game provenance also provides a "built-in" way to handle negation and thus to answer why-not questions: In (provenance) games, the reason why x is not won, is the same as why x is lost or drawn (the latter is possible for games with draws). Since first-order provenance games are draw-free, they yield a new provenance model that combines how- and why-not provenance

A dependent nominal type theory

Nominal abstract syntax is an approach to representing names and binding pioneered by Gabbay and Pitts. So far nominal techniques have mostly been studied using classical logic or model theory, not type theory. Nominal extensions to simple, dependent and ML-like polymorphic languages have been studied, but decidability and normalization results have only been established for simple nominal type theories. We present a LF-style dependent type theory extended with name-abstraction types, prove soundness and decidability of beta-eta-equivalence checking, discuss adequacy and canonical forms via an example, and discuss extensions such as dependently-typed recursion and induction principles

Laser photogrammetry reveals variation in growth and early survival in free-ranging bottlenose dolphins

Acknowledgements Many thanks to the Chicago Zoological Society team for their assistance during photo-identification surveys in Sarasota, Florida and the Scottish Marine Animal Stranding Scheme and University of North Carolina Wilmington Marine Mammal Stranding Program for providing measurements of stranded bottlenose dolphins. Thanks to Holly Fearnbach and Isla Graham for statistical advice, to Hera Sengers and all our fieldwork assistants for their fieldwork support and to four anonymous reviewers who kindly provided comments on the manuscript. Scottish Natural Heritage, Department of Energy and Climate Change, Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Ltd, Moray Offshore Renewables Ltd, Marine Scotland, The Crown Estate and Highlands and Islands Enterprise all provided funding for photo-identification surveys. Survey work was conducted under Scottish Natural Heritage Animal Scientific LicencesPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Improving the condition number of estimated covariance matrices

High dimensional error covariance matrices and their inverses are used to weight the contribution of observation and background information in data assimilation procedures. As observation error covariance matrices are often obtained by sampling methods, estimates are often degenerate or ill-conditioned, making it impossible to invert an observation error covariance matrix without the use of techniques to reduce its condition number. In this paper we present new theory for two existing methods that can be used to ‘recondition’ any covariance matrix: ridge regression, and the minimum eigenvalue method. We compare these methods with multiplicative variance inflation, which cannot alter the condition number of a matrix, but is often used to account for neglected correlation information. We investigate the impact of reconditioning on variances and correlations of a general covariance matrix in both a theoretical and practical setting. Improved theoretical understanding provides guidance to users regarding method selection, and choice of target condition number. The new theory shows that, for the same target condition number, both methods increase variances compared to the original matrix, with larger increases for ridge regression than the minimum eigenvalue method. We prove that the ridge regression method strictly decreases the absolute value of off-diagonal correlations. Theoretical comparison of the impact of reconditioning and multiplicative variance inflation on the data assimilation objective function shows that variance inflation alters information across all scales uniformly, whereas reconditioning has a larger effect on scales corresponding to smaller eigenvalues. We then consider two examples: a general correlation function, and an observation error covariance matrix arising from interchannel correlations. The minimum eigenvalue method results in smaller overall changes to the correlation matrix than ridge regression, but can increase off-diagonal correlations. Data assimilation experiments reveal that reconditioning corrects spurious noise in the analysis but underestimates the true signal compared to multiplicative variance inflation