Improving population-level refractive error monitoring via mixture distributions

Introduction: Sampling and describing the distribution of refractive error in populations is critical to understanding eye care needs, refractive differences between groups and factors affecting refractive development. We investigated the ability of mixture models to describe refractive error distributions. Methods: We used key informants to identify raw refractive error datasets and a systematic search strategy to identify published binned datasets of community-representative refractive error. Mixture models combine various component distributions via weighting to describe an observed distribution. We modelled raw refractive error data with a single-Gaussian (normal) distribution, mixtures of two to six Gaussian distributions and an additive model of an exponential and Gaussian (ex-Gaussian) distribution. We tested the relative fitting accuracy of each method via Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and then compared the ability of selected models to predict the observed prevalence of refractive error across a range of cut-points for both the raw and binned refractive data. Results: We obtained large raw refractive error datasets from the United States and Korea. The ability of our models to fit the data improved significantly from a single-Gaussian to a two-Gaussian-component additive model and then remained stable with ≥3-Gaussian-component mixture models. Means and standard deviations for BIC relative to 1 for the single-Gaussian model, where lower is better, were 0.89 ± 0.05, 0.88 ± 0.06, 0.89 ± 0.06, 0.89 ± 0.06 and 0.90 ± 0.06 for two-, three-, four-, five- and six-Gaussian-component models, respectively, tested across US and Korean raw data grouped by age decade. Means and standard deviations for the difference between observed and model-based estimates of refractive error prevalence across a range of cut-points for the raw data were −3.0% ± 6.3, 0.5% ± 1.9, 0.6% ± 1.5 and −1.8% ± 4.0 for one-, two- and three-Gaussian-component and ex-Gaussian models, respectively. Conclusions: Mixture models appear able to describe the population distribution of refractive error accurately, offering significant advantages over commonly quoted simple summary statistics such as mean, standard deviation and prevalence

Accounting for risk of non linear portfolios: a novel Fourier approach

The presence of non linear instruments is responsible for the emergence of non Gaussian features in the price changes distribution of realistic portfolios, even for Normally distributed risk factors. This is especially true for the benchmark Delta Gamma Normal model, which in general exhibits exponentially damped power law tails. We show how the knowledge of the model characteristic function leads to Fourier representations for two standard risk measures, the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall, and for their sensitivities with respect to the model parameters. We detail the numerical implementation of our formulae and we emphasizes the reliability and efficiency of our results in comparison with Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures. Final version accepted for publication on Eur. Phys. J.

A Closed-Form Solution of the Multi-Period Portfolio Choice Problem for a Quadratic Utility Function

In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed and no assumption on the distribution is imposed. All expressions are presented in terms of the conditional mean vectors and the conditional covariance matrices. If the multivariate process of the asset returns is independent it is shown that in the case without a riskless asset the solution is presented as a sequence of optimal portfolio weights obtained by solving the single-period Markowitz optimization problem. The process dynamics are included only in the shape parameter of the utility function. If a riskless asset is present then the multi-period optimal portfolio weights are proportional to the single-period solutions multiplied by time-varying constants which are depending on the process dynamics. Remarkably, in the case of a portfolio selection with the tangency portfolio the multi-period solution coincides with the sequence of the simple-period solutions. Finally, we compare the suggested strategies with existing multi-period portfolio allocation methods for real data.Comment: 38 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, changes: VAR(1)-CCC-GARCH(1,1) process dynamics and the analysis of increasing horizon are included in the simulation study, under revision in Annals of Operations Researc

The best Of CafeLit 2011

Each story in this little volume is the right length and quality for enjoying as you sip the assigned drink in your favourite Creative Café. You need never feel alone again in a café. So what’s the mood today? Espresso? Earl Grey tea? Hot chocolate with marshmallows? You’ll find most drinks in our drinks index. If you’re reading the café’s copy and you have your Kindle or iPhone with you, why not download the Kindle version? Or browse the CaféLit web site for more examples of CaféLit stories? http://cafelitcreativecafe.blogspot.com/ and http://creativecafeproject.co.uk/CafLit.aspx CaféLit supports the Creative Café project

A method for automatic segmentation and splitting of hyperspectral images of raspberry plants collected in field conditions

Abstract Hyperspectral imaging is a technology that can be used to monitor plant responses to stress. Hyperspectral images have a full spectrum for each pixel in the image, 400–2500 nm in this case, giving detailed information about the spectral reflectance of the plant. Although this technology has been used in laboratory-based controlled lighting conditions for early detection of plant disease, the transfer of such technology to imaging plants in field conditions presents a number of challenges. These include problems caused by varying light levels and difficulties of separating the target plant from its background. Here we present an automated method that has been developed to segment raspberry plants from the background using a selected spectral ratio combined with edge detection. Graph theory was used to minimise a cost function to detect the continuous boundary between uninteresting plants and the area of interest. The method includes automatic detection of a known reflectance tile which was kept constantly within the field of view for all image scans. A method to split images containing rows of multiple raspberry plants into individual plants was also developed. Validation was carried out by comparison of plant height and density measurements with manually scored values. A reasonable correlation was found between these manual scores and measurements taken from the images (r2 = 0.75 for plant height). These preliminary steps are an essential requirement before detailed spectral analysis of the plants can be achieved

Impact of pharmaceutical promotion on prescribing decisions of general practitioners in Eastern Turkey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Commercial sources of information are known to have greater influence than scientific sources on general practitioners' (GPs) prescribing behavior in under developed and developing countries. The study aimed to determine the self-reported impact of pharmaceutical promotion on the decision-making process of prescription of GPs in Eastern Turkey.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional, exploratory survey was performed among 152 GPs working in the primary health centers and hospitals in Erzurum province of Eastern Turkey in 2006. A self-administered structured questionnaire was used. The questionnaire included questions regarding sociodemographics, number of patients per day, time per patient, frequency of sales representative visits to GPs, participation of GPs in training courses on prescribing (in-service training, drug companies), factors affecting prescribing decision, reference sources concerning prescribing and self-reported and self-rated effect of the activities of sales representatives on GPs prescribing decisions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 152 subjects, 53.3% were male and 65.8% were working at primary health care centers, respectively. Mean patient per day was 58.3 ± 28.8 patients per GP. For majority of the GPs (73.7%), the most frequent resource used in case of any problems in prescribing process was drug guides of pharmaceutical companies. According to self-report of the GPs, their prescribing decisions were affected by participation in any training activity of drug companies, frequent visits by sales representatives, high number of patient examinations per day and low year of practice (p < 0.05 for all).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that for the majority of the GPs, primary reference sources concerning prescribing was commercial information provided by sales representatives of pharmaceutical companies, which were reported to be highly influential on their decision-making process of prescribing by GPs. Since this study was based on self-report, the influence reported by the GPs may have been underestimated.</p

Internet-based medical education: a realist review of what works, for whom and in what circumstances

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Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined

Developing consensus-based policy solutions for medicines adherence for Europe: a Delphi study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-adherence to prescribed medication is a pervasive problem that can incur serious effects on patients’ health outcomes and well-being, and the availability of resources in healthcare systems. This study aimed to develop practical consensus-based policy solutions to address medicines non-adherence for Europe.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A four-round Delphi study was conducted. The Delphi Expert Panel comprised 50 participants from 14 countries and was representative of: patient/carers organisations; healthcare providers and professionals; commissioners and policy makers; academics; and industry representatives. Participants engaged in the study remotely, anonymously and electronically. Participants were invited to respond to open questions about the causes, consequences and solutions to medicines non-adherence. Subsequent rounds refined responses, and sought ratings of the relative importance, and operational and political feasibility of each potential solution to medicines non-adherence. Feedback of individual and group responses was provided to participants after each round. Members of the Delphi Expert Panel and members of the research group participated in a consensus meeting upon completion of the Delphi study to discuss and further refine the proposed policy solutions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>43 separate policy solutions to medication non-adherence were agreed by the Panel. 25 policy solutions were prioritised based on composite scores for importance, and operational and political feasibility. Prioritised policy solutions focused on interventions for patients, training for healthcare professionals, and actions to support partnership between patients and healthcare professionals. Few solutions concerned actions by governments, healthcare commissioners, or interventions at the system level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Consensus about practical actions necessary to address non-adherence to medicines has been developed for Europe. These actions are also applicable to other regions. Prioritised policy solutions for medicines non-adherence offer a benefit to policymakers and healthcare providers seeking to address this multifaceted, complex problem.</p