Persistence of inflationary shocks: Implications for West African Monetary Union Membership

Plans are far advanced to form a second monetary union, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), in Africa. While much attention is being placed on convergence criteria and preparedness of the five aspiring member states, less attention is being placed on the extent to which the dynamics of inflation in individual countries are (dis)similar. This paper aims to stimulate debate on the long term sustainability of the union by examining the dynamics of inflation within these countries. Using Fractional Integration (FI) methods, we establish that some significant differences exist among the countries. Shocks to inflation in Sierra Leone are non mean reverting; results for The Gambia, Ghana and Guinea-Bissau suggest some inflation persistence, despite being mean reverting. Some policy implications are discussed and some warnings are raised

Modern macroeconomics: a review of the post 2008/2009 crisis debate

This paper reviews the current debate on the state of modern macroeconomics from methodological standpoint. While some senior figures in economics have argued that modern macroeconomics has gone wayward and thus become irrelevant for policy, others argue otherwise. Methodologically, the fundamental sources of dispute have centered on realism of assumptions, mathematical formalism and empiricism and falsification of economic models. Our conclusion from this review is that the observable world upon which macroeconomist rely on to make their assumptions, theories and predictions represent a very tiny fraction of physical reality. Thus any policy derived from such partial and short sighted analysis can only produce a sub-optimal outcome. Moreover, the fundamental analysis employed in macroeconomic analysis overlook peculiarities which should be the rule rather than the exception for addressing important economic conundrums. In short, although we do not support the position of most critics on the view that macroeconomics of the last 30 years is completely useless, we are of the view that there is need for serious rethinking about the future of macroeconomics. This is the only way forward, if the subject has anything to say about policy. Keywords: Financial Crisis, Modern Macroeconomics, Rational Expectations, Illusion, Perception and Realit

What does corporate social advocacy signal? Evidence from boycott participation decisions

PURPOSE – This paper explores how a firm’s public stand on a social-political issue can be a salient signal of the firm’s values, identity and reputation. In particular, it investigates how boycott participation–conceptualized as a cue of a corporation’s stand on important social-political issues–may affect the stock market valuation of that corporation, as well as how corporations legitimise their stand on the issues. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH – The authors employ a mixed-methods design that uses both qualitative techniques (content analysis) and quantitative methods (event study methodology) to examine a sample of US firms who participated in a boycott campaign that sought to call attention to issues of hate speech, misinformation and discriminatory content on social media platform Facebook. FINDINGS – Findings from the qualitative content analysis of company statements show that firms legitimise their stand on, and participation in, the boycott by expressing altruistic values and suggesting to stakeholders that their stand aligns not only with organizational values/convictions but also with the greater social good. Importantly, the event study results show that firms who publicly announced their intention to participate in the boycott, on average, earn a statistically significant positive abnormal stock return of 2.68% in the four days immediately after their announcements. Research limitations/implications – Findings relate to a specific case of a boycott campaign. Also, the sample size is limited and restricted to US stocks. The signalling value of corporate social advocacy actions may vary across countries due to institutional and cultural differences. Market reaction may also be different for issues that are more charged than the ones examined in this study. Therefore, future research might investigate other markets, use larger sample sizes and consider a broader range of social-political issues. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS – The presence of significant stock price changes for firms that publicly announced their decision to side with activists on the issue of hate propaganda and misinformation offers potentially valuable insights on the timing of trades for investors and arbitrageurs. Insights from the study also provide a practical resource that can be used to inform organizations’ decision-making about such issues. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS – Taking the lead to push on social-political issues, such as hate propaganda, discrimination, among others, and communicating their stands in a way that speaks to their values and identity, could be rewarding for companies. ORIGINALITY/VALUE – This study provides novel evidence on the impact that corporate stances on important social-political issues can have on stock market valuation of firms and therefore extends the existing related research which until now has focused on the impact on consumer purchasing intent and brand loyalty.https://www.emerald.com/insight/2514-4774.htmam2022Economic

Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the Interaction Between ICT Diffusion and Financial Development

Despite the momentous rise in ICT diffusion, and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), their plausible joint effect on inclusive growth have not been explored, leaving a lacuna in the literature. This study, therefore, examines the direct and indirect effects of ICT diffusion on inclusive growth in 42 SSA countries over the period 1980–2019. We provide evidence robust to several specifications from the dynamic system GMM to show that: (i) ICT skills, access and usage induce inclusive growth in SSA, and (ii) the effects of ICT skills, access and usage are enhanced in the presence of financial development. These findings remain the same when we focussed on financial institution access. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the region’s green growth agenda and striving efforts at improving socioeconomic development

Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real and Monetary Policy Convergence Analysis

A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the EMU crisis. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states. Inspired by the premise of the EMU crisis, this paper assesses real and monetary policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. In the analysis, monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size while real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels. Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence; an indication that candidate countries still have to work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in fundamental, structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the convergence process

Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Convergence Analysis

Purpose – A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the EMU crisis. This paper assesses real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of central bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states. Design/methodology/approach – In the analysis: monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size; real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels; while, fiscal policy targets debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios. A dynamic panel GMM estimation with data from different non-overlapping intervals is employed. The implied rate of convergence and the time required to achieve full (100%) convergence are then computed from the estimations. Findings – Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence: (1) initial conditions for financial development are different across countries; (2) fundamental characteristics as common monetary policy initiatives and IMF backed financial reform programs are implemented differently across countries; (3) there is remarkable evidence of cross-country variations in structural characteristics of macroeconomic performance; (4) institutional cross-country differences could also be responsible for the deficiency in convergence within the potential monetary zones; (5) absence of fiscal policy convergence and no potential for eliminating idiosyncratic fiscal shocks due to business cycle incoherence. Practical implications – As a policy implication, heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics across countries are giving rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Thus, member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of convergence in monetary, real and fiscal policies. This could be done by stringently monitoring the implementation of existing common initiatives and/or the adoption of new reforms programs. Originality/value – It is one of the few attempts to investigate the issue of convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM unions

Real and Monetary Policy Convergence: EMU Crisis to the CFA Zone

A major lesson of the EMU crisis is that serious disequilibria result from regional monetary arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. The purpose of this paper is to assess these disequilibria within the CEMAC, UEMOA and CFA zones. In the assessments, monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size while real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth. We also provide the speed of convergence and time required to achieve a 100% convergence. But for financial intermediary size within the CFA zone, findings for the most part support only unconditional convergence. There is no form of convergence within the CEMAC zone. The broad insignificance of conditional convergence results have substantial policy implications. Monetary and real policies which are often homogenous for member states are thwarted by heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics which give rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Therefore member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of monetary policies