Are we there yet?: Advances in anytime-valid methods for hypothesis testing and prediction

Statistical considerations guide the design and implementation of the experiments that scientists perform. For instance, in a clinical trial about a the efficacy of a treatment, its effect in a certain minimum amount of patients has to be observed in order to make confident assertions about the efficacy of the treatment in the general population---observing one or two patients is, as an extreme example, not enough. Sound statistical methods are required to assess the quality of these general assertions. Currently, the most flexible methods allow experimentalists to analyze the data that they gather as it is collected, and to make decisions about gathering more data, stopping an experiment or starting new one based on their findings. In short, they allow experimentalists to ask "are we there yet?" as their experiments are ongoing. This is crucial in applications such as monitoring of clinical trials, online experimentation and quality control in engineering. The statistical methods that make this degree of flexibility possible are called, in the statistical community, anytime valid; they are the main focus of this dissertation. In this work, a number of mathematical results about optimal anytime-valid methods are shown. Group-invariant models, the analysis of time-to-event data, and prediction with expert advice are investigated.Number theory, Algebra and Geometr

HTLV-1 infection in solid organ transplant donors and recipients in Spain

HTLV-1 infection is a neglected disease, despite infecting 10-15 million people worldwide and severe illnesses develop in 10% of carriers lifelong. Acknowledging a greater risk for developing HTLV-1 associated illnesses due to immunosuppression, screening is being widely considered in the transplantation setting. Herein, we report the experience with universal HTLV testing of donors and recipients of solid organ transplants in a survey conducted in Spain. All hospitals belonging to the Spanish HTLV network were invited to participate in the study. Briefly, HTLV antibody screening was performed retrospectively in all specimens collected from solid organ donors and recipients attended since the year 2008. A total of 5751 individuals were tested for HTLV antibodies at 8 sites. Donors represented 2312 (42.2%), of whom 17 (0.3%) were living kidney donors. The remaining 3439 (59.8%) were recipients. Spaniards represented nearly 80%. Overall, 9 individuals (0.16%) were initially reactive for HTLV antibodies. Six were donors and 3 were recipients. Using confirmatory tests, HTLV-1 could be confirmed in only two donors, one Spaniard and another from Colombia. Both kidneys of the Spaniard were inadvertently transplanted. Subacute myelopathy developed within 1 year in one recipient. The second recipient seroconverted for HTLV-1 but the kidney had to be removed soon due to rejection. Immunosuppression was stopped and 3 years later the patient remains in dialysis but otherwise asymptomatic. The rate of HTLV-1 is low but not negligible in donors/recipients of solid organ transplants in Spain. Universal HTLV screening should be recommended in all donor and recipients of solid organ transplantation in Spain. Evidence is overwhelming for very high virus transmission and increased risk along with the rapid development of subacute myelopathy

RICORS2040 : The need for collaborative research in chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a silent and poorly known killer. The current concept of CKD is relatively young and uptake by the public, physicians and health authorities is not widespread. Physicians still confuse CKD with chronic kidney insufficiency or failure. For the wider public and health authorities, CKD evokes kidney replacement therapy (KRT). In Spain, the prevalence of KRT is 0.13%. Thus health authorities may consider CKD a non-issue: very few persons eventually need KRT and, for those in whom kidneys fail, the problem is 'solved' by dialysis or kidney transplantation. However, KRT is the tip of the iceberg in the burden of CKD. The main burden of CKD is accelerated ageing and premature death. The cut-off points for kidney function and kidney damage indexes that define CKD also mark an increased risk for all-cause premature death. CKD is the most prevalent risk factor for lethal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the factor that most increases the risk of death in COVID-19, after old age. Men and women undergoing KRT still have an annual mortality that is 10- to 100-fold higher than similar-age peers, and life expectancy is shortened by ~40 years for young persons on dialysis and by 15 years for young persons with a functioning kidney graft. CKD is expected to become the fifth greatest global cause of death by 2040 and the second greatest cause of death in Spain before the end of the century, a time when one in four Spaniards will have CKD. However, by 2022, CKD will become the only top-15 global predicted cause of death that is not supported by a dedicated well-funded Centres for Biomedical Research (CIBER) network structure in Spain. Realizing the underestimation of the CKD burden of disease by health authorities, the Decade of the Kidney initiative for 2020-2030 was launched by the American Association of Kidney Patients and the European Kidney Health Alliance. Leading Spanish kidney researchers grouped in the kidney collaborative research network Red de Investigación Renal have now applied for the Redes de Investigación Cooperativa Orientadas a Resultados en Salud (RICORS) call for collaborative research in Spain with the support of the Spanish Society of Nephrology, Federación Nacional de Asociaciones para la Lucha Contra las Enfermedades del Riñón and ONT: RICORS2040 aims to prevent the dire predictions for the global 2040 burden of CKD from becoming true

Measurement of the cross section of high transverse momentum Z→bb̄ production in proton–proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This Letter reports the observation of a high transverse momentum Z→bb̄ signal in proton–proton collisions at √s=8 TeV and the measurement of its production cross section. The data analysed were collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.5 fb−¹. The Z→bb̄ decay is reconstructed from a pair of b -tagged jets, clustered with the anti-ktkt jet algorithm with R=0.4R=0.4, that have low angular separation and form a dijet with pT>200 GeVpT>200 GeV. The signal yield is extracted from a fit to the dijet invariant mass distribution, with the dominant, multi-jet background mass shape estimated by employing a fully data-driven technique that reduces the dependence of the analysis on simulation. The fiducial cross section is determined to be σZ→bb¯fid=2.02±0.20 (stat.) ±0.25 (syst.)±0.06 (lumi.) pb=2.02±0.33 pb, in good agreement with next-to-leading-order theoretical predictions

Measurement of the branching ratio Γ(Λb⁰ → ψ(2S)Λ0)/Γ(Λb⁰ → J/ψΛ0) with the ATLAS detector

An observation of the $\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow \psi(2S) \Lambda^0$ decay and a comparison of its branching fraction with that of the $\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow J/\psi \Lambda^0$ decay has been made with the ATLAS detector in proton--proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=8\,$TeV at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of $20.6\,$fb$^{-1}$. The $J/\psi$ and $\psi(2S)$ mesons are reconstructed in their decays to a muon pair, while the $\Lambda^0\rightarrow p\pi^-$ decay is exploited for the $\Lambda^0$ baryon reconstruction. The $\Lambda_b^0$ baryons are reconstructed with transverse momentum $p_{\rm T}>10\,$GeV and pseudorapidity $|\eta|<2.1$. The measured branching ratio of the $\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow \psi(2S) \Lambda^0$ and $\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow J/\psi \Lambda^0$ decays is $\Gamma(\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow \psi(2S)\Lambda^0)/\Gamma(\Lambda_b^0 \rightarrow J/\psi\Lambda^0) = 0.501\pm 0.033 ({\rm stat})\pm 0.019({\rm syst})$, lower than the expectation from the covariant quark model.Comment: 12 pages plus author list (28 pages total), 5 figures, 1 table, published on Physics Letters B 751 (2015) 63-80. All figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/BPHY-2013-08

Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson decay to μ+μ− with the ATLAS detector

A search is reported for Higgs boson decay to μ+μ−μ+μ− using data with an integrated luminosity of 24.8 fb−124.8 fb−¹ collected with the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at √s=7 and 8 TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The observed dimuon invariant mass distribution is consistent with the Standard Model background-only hypothesis in the 120–150 GeV search range. For a Higgs boson with a mass of 125.5 GeV, the observed (expected) upper limit at the 95% confidence level is 7.0 (7.2) times the Standard Model expectation. This corresponds to an upper limit on the branching ratio BR(H→μ+μ−)of 1.5×10−31.5×10−3

Search for H→γγ produced in association with top quarks and constraints on the Yukawa coupling between the top quark and the Higgs boson using data taken at 7 TeV and 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is performed for Higgs bosons produced in association with top quarks using the diphoton decay mode of the Higgs boson. Selection requirements are optimized separately for leptonic and fully hadronic final states from the top quark decays. The dataset used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.5 fb−14.5 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and 20.3 fb−1 at 8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess over the background prediction is observed and upper limits are set on the tt¯H production cross section. The observed exclusion upper limit at 95% confidence level is 6.7 times the predicted Standard Model cross section value. In addition, limits are set on the strength of the Yukawa coupling between the top quark and the Higgs boson, taking into account the dependence of the tt¯H and tH cross sections as well as the H→γγ branching fraction on the Yukawa coupling. Lower and upper limits at 95% confidence level are set at −1.3 and +8.0 times the Yukawa coupling strength in the Standard Model

Fiducial and differential cross sections of Higgs boson production measured in the four-lepton decay channel in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections of Higgs boson production in the H→ZZ∗ → 4ℓ decay channel are presented. The cross sections are determined within a fiducial phase space and corrected for detection efficiency and resolution effects. They are based on 20.3 fb−¹ of pp collision data, produced at √s = 8 TeV centre-of-mass energy at the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector. The differential measurements are performed in bins of transverse momentum and rapidity of the four-lepton system, the invariant mass of the subleading lepton pair and the decay angle of the leading lepton pair with respect to the beam line in the four-lepton rest frame, as well as the number of jets and the transverse momentum of the leading jet. The measured cross sections are compared to selected theoretical calculations of the Standard Model expectations. No significant deviation from any of the tested predictions is found

Measurements of fiducial cross-sections for t\bart production with one or two additional b-jets in pp collisions at √s =8 TeVusing the ATLAS detector

Fiducial cross-sections for $t\bar{t}$ production with one or two additional $b$-jets are reported, using an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb$^{-1}$ of proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider, collected with the ATLAS detector. The cross-section times branching ratio for $t\bar{t}$ events with at least one additional $b$-jet is measured to be 950 $\pm$ 70 (stat.) $^{+240}_{-190}$ (syst.) fb in the lepton-plus-jets channel and 50 $\pm$ 10 (stat.) $^{+15}_{-10}$ (syst.) fb in the $e \mu$ channel. The cross-section times branching ratio for events with at least two additional $b$-jets is measured to be 19.3 $\pm$ 3.5 (stat.) $\pm$ 5.7 (syst.) fb in the dilepton channel ($e \mu$,\,$\mu\mu$, and \,$ee$) using a method based on tight selection criteria, and 13.5 $\pm$ 3.3 (stat.) $\pm$ 3.6 (syst.) fb using a looser selection that allows the background normalisation to be extracted from data. The latter method also measures a value of 1.30 $\pm$ 0.33 (stat.) $\pm$ 0.28 (syst.)\% for the ratio of $t\bar{t}$ production with two additional $b$-jets to $t\bar{t}$ production with any two additional jets. All measurements are in good agreement with recent theory predictions.Comment: 41 pages plus author list + cover page (58 total), 9 Figures, 16 tables, submitted to EPJC, all figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/TOPQ-2014-10