The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence

We document the role of independence for Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) as it matters to successful implementation of monetary policy. We compare the implementation of monetary policy pre- and post-crisis periods within an empirical framework which allows us to measure the role of independence quantitatively. We estimate a Taylor rule with time varying coefficients by employing a dual extended Kalman filter. We find that the coefficient of inflation gap has increased substantially since CBRT gained de-juro independence.Taylor Rule, Kalman Filter, Monetary Policy

On the Political Economy of the Informal Sector and Income Redistribution

In this paper we analyze a general equilibrium model in which agents choose to be employed in formal or in the informal sector. The formal sector is taxed to provide income subsidies and the level of redistribution is determined endogenously through majority voting. We explore how the demand for redistribution determined by majority voting interacts with the incentive to work in the untaxed informal market. We also investigate how different levels of the informal sector wage can explain simultaneous changes in the size of the informal sector and level of redistribution. The model is simulated to produce qualitative results to illustrate the differences between economies with different distributional features. The model accounts for the different sizes of informal sector and income redistribution in Mexico and United States.Informal Sector, Income Redistribution, Median Voter

Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey

Design of policy rules for an an emerging market central bank (EMCB) operating in an inflation-targeting framework presents additional challenges beyond those for describing the behavior of a central bank in a developed economy. Even though an inflation-targeting regime entails abolishing the exchange rate target in favor of an inflation target, it is more difficult for an EMBC to ignore movements in exchange rates given the relatively shallow depth of financial markets and the the high degree of dollarization. Additionally the EMCB may be forced to change the pursued exchange rate regime following a capital account reversal so that linear Taylor rules may be inadequate for describing EMCB reactions. We develop an empirical framework that addresses these issues and propose a new methodology to estimate unobserved variables such as expected inflation and potential output within the rule. Specifically, we employ a structural, nonlinear Kalman filter algorithm to estimate time-dependent parameters and unobserved variables, and we experiment with various exchange rate mechanisms that can be employed by an EMCB. This approach allows us to track any changes in EMCB behavior - including regime shifts - following a switch to inflation targeting. Using post-2001 data from Turkey, which is a fairly dollarized small open economy, we document that the Central Bank of Turkey has given relatively more importance to the inflation gap than to the output gap or to exchange rates, but not until some time after it had switched to an inflation-targeting framework.Dual Extended Kalman Filter, Taylor Rule, inflation targeting, emerging markets

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Inequality and Innovation in a Schumpeterian Framework

I empirically investigate the non-linear relationship between inequality and innovation in a Schumpeterian setup where growth is expressed by the rate of innovations. In this framework income distribution plays a role in determining the dynamic market sizes for innovators and therefore is a major determinant of growth. By using two new cross-country inequality data sets, I find support for an inverted U-shaped relationship between inequality and innovative activities. This result is robust to two common inequality definitions and several parametric and non-parametric estimation procedures.inequality, innovation, patents