Essays on International Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy

A sound monetary policy depends on a solid understanding of how external shocks reverberate throughout the economy. This is particularly true in emerging market economies under the inflation targeting (IT) framework since these economies tend to be subject to large external shocks, and don\u27t have a long IT track record. My dissertation studies the macroeconomic consequences of external shocks under IT in emerging market economies, and the policy response to such shocks. The first chapter studies whether foreign exchange interventions (FXI) are effective under IT in the context of commodity prices shocks. It also explores the extent to which lack of public confidence in the central bank\u27s ability to meet its inflation objectives may frustrate the success of FXI. Using an interacted panel vector autoregression framework, I find that, when the central bank fights simultaneous appreciation and inflationary pressures driven by positive commodity price shocks, FXI indeed leads to less exchange rate appreciation. However, lack of credibility – reflected by the (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations – can undermine a central bank\u27s FXI effort since less credible central banks increase interest rates more aggressively to stabilize inflation. The simultaneous effort to depreciate the currency is thus weakened in the presence of higher rates. The second chapter investigates the implications of international trade costs shocks for exchange rate determination under different inflation targets. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model I show that, given a shock to international trade costs, the nominal exchange rate exhibits higher volatility under higher inflation targets. The results suggest that monetary policy authorities should choose inflation targets with caution, especially in a context of uncertainty regarding international trade costs. The third chapter empirically estimates the extent to which changes in the exchange rate induce changes in the prices of imported agricultural goods in Turkey. I show that agricultural commodities have a low and incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results suggest that Turkish monetary policymakers may allow nominal exchange rate fluctuations to stabilize real activity without having to worry about a spike in CPI inflation induced by higher import prices

Mapeamento e análise da geração de cultivares nas unidades descentralizadas da Embrapa.

Este estudo aborda a geração de ativos de propriedade intelectual, especificamente a geração de cultivares nas diversas Unidades da Embrapa. A análise cobre um período aproximado de duas décadas de pesquisa e focou resultados alcançados por Unidades de Produto e Unidades Ecorregionais. Foi realizado um amplo levantamento a partir da base de dados do Sistema Nacional de Proteção de Cultivares, ligado ao Ministério de Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento, e junto aos Comitês Locais de Propriedade Intelectual (CLPI) das Unidades pesquisadas. Os resultados mostram que no período estudado, a Embrapa gerou 1.289 cultivares, atingindo uma média de 69 cultivares por ano, do total gerado no período, a Embrapa Tabuleiros Costeiros foi responsável por 18 cultivares. A análise de uma amostra composta por 10 Unidades de Produto, mostra que foram geradas 522 cultivares neste período. O mapeamento da geração de cultivares mostra que quando analisadas individualmente, algumas culturas se destacam, entre elas: soja (264), milho (117) e arroz (109). As diversas análises efetuadas evidenciaram um fato que merece destaque e reflexão, a geração de cultivares ao longo dos anos, se mostrou totalmente aleatória, tendo anos onde ocorreram picos de geração de cultivares, seguidos imediatamente por anos com baixíssima quantidade de cultivares. O mapeamento e análises realizadas deixam claro que, usando como parâmetro a geração de novas cultivares, a Embrapa não apresenta um padrão de inovação, nem de geração constante de ativos de propriedade intelectual

Pot-in-pot reactions: a simple and green approach to efficient organic synthesis

Incompatible organic reactions impede efficient green synthesis by making multi-component or cascade reactions a big challenge. This review highlights pot-in-pot reactions (multiple reactions carried out in one pot by separating key reactions with a thin polymeric membrane) as an efficient, green synthetic alternative to conventional synthesis. We discuss the advantages of homogeneous processes to develop new cascade reaction sequences by reviewing the use of polymeric thimbles as selective semi-permeable walls. These thimbles allow small organic molecules to diffuse through while retaining polar reagents, polar solvents, and/or organometallic catalysts. The dynamic and versatile nature of this technique is demonstrated by performing 2- and 3-step cascade reactions in one glass pot. A pot-in-pot reaction approach to synthesis circumvents the need to isolate intermediates, or handling of toxic/unpleasant by-products, therefore enabling synthesis of otherwise challenging molecules, improving the efficiency, or enabling greener approaches to modular synthesis

Anxiety sensitivity and medication nonadherence in patients with uncontrolled hypertension

Objective Anxiety sensitivity—fear of the negative social, physical, or cognitive consequences of anxiety related sensations—has been linked to cardiovascular disease and adverse cardiovascular health behaviors. Medication nonadherence may account for this association. We examined whether anxiety sensitivity was independently associated with objectively measured medication nonadherence in a multi-ethnic primary care sample. Methods Eighty-eight patients with uncontrolled hypertension completed the Anxiety Sensitivity Index and had their adherence to blood pressure (BP) medications measured during the interval between two primary care visits using an electronic pillbox (MedSignals®). Multivariable Poisson regressions were conducted to determine the relative risks of medication nonadherence associated with anxiety sensitivity after adjustment for age, gender, Hispanic/Latino ethnicity, education, total number of prescribed medications, and depressive and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Results Nearly twice as many patients with high anxiety sensitivity were nonadherent to BP medications compared to patients with low anxiety sensitivity (65.0% vs. 36.8%; p = 0.03). Patients with high anxiety sensitivity had higher relative risks of medication nonadherence than their low anxiety sensitivity counterparts (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.03–3.03). Conclusions In this first study of the association between anxiety sensitivity and medication adherence, we found that high anxiety sensitivity was strongly associated with BP medication nonadherence, even after adjustment for known confounders. Our results suggest that teaching patients who have uncontrolled hypertension adaptive strategies to manage their anxiety sensitivity may help improve their medication adherence, and thereby lower their cardiovascular risk

Characterization of submicron aerosol chemical composition and sources in the coastal area of Central Chile

Chemical characteristics and the sources of submicron particles (<1 mu m in diameter) were investigated in Valle Alegre, the coastal area of Central Chile. The chemical composition of particles was studied by using a Soot particle Aerosol Mass Spectrometer and Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer. Submicron particles were dominated by organics (42% of mass) and sulfate (39% of mass) while the mass fractions of ammonium, nitrate and black carbon were much smaller (13, 2 and 4% of mass, respectively). Additionally, several metals (V, Zn, Fe, Cd, Cu, K, Na and Mg) were detected in submicron particles and also some of their inorganic salts (e.g. NaCl+, MgCl2+, CaCl2+, KCl+ and KNO3+). The sources of particles were examined by using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Organic aerosol (OA) was divided into five factors by using PMF; hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), biomass burning OA (BBOA), low-volatility oxygenated OA (LV-OOA), semi-volatile OA (SV-OOA) and marine oxygenated OOA (MOOA), Oxygenated factors (LV-OOA; SV-OOA and MOOA) comprised 75% of total OA with LV-OOA being the dominant factor (38% of OA). Sulfate had two major sources in Valle Alegre; similar to 70% of sulfate was related to anthropogenic sources through the oxidation of gas phase SO2 whereas similar to 24% of sulfate was associated with biogenic origin related to the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide in the marine environment. Regarding total submicron particle mass (campaign-average 9.5 mu g m(-3)), the contribution of anthropogenic sources was at least as large as that of biogenic origin.Peer reviewe

Sowing density effect on common bean leaf area development

Sowing density is a major management factor that affects growth and development of grain crops by modifying the canopy light environment and interplant competition for water and nutrients. While the effects of sowing density and plant architecture on static vegetative and reproductive growth traits have been explored previously in the common bean, few studies have focused on the impacts of sowing density on the dynamics of node addition and leaf area development. We present the results from two sites of field experiments where the effects of sowing densities (5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 35 plants m-2) and genotypes with contrasting plant architectures (two each from growth habits I through III) on the dynamics of node addition and leaf area were assessed. Analysis of the phyllochron (°C node-1) indicated genotype and density effects (but no interaction) on the rate of node addition. While significant, these differences amounted to less than two days of growth at either site. In terms of leaf area development, analysis using a power function reflected large differences in the dynamics and final size of individual plant leaf area between the lower density (20 plants m-2) at the growth habit, but not genotype level. These differences in node addition and leaf development dynamics translated to marked differences between growth habits and sowing densities in estimated leaf area indices, and consequently, in the estimated fraction of intercepted light at lower densities

Análisis y detección de características de la varicela en imágenes de la piel

Las técnicas de procesamiento de imágenes pueden resultar de gran ayuda a los profesionales de la medicina en el diagnóstico temprano de enfermedades de la piel. Este trabajo se centra en el análisis y detección de características propias de la varicela sobre fotografías digitales del paciente. El procedimiento utilizado consiste en el análisis de la luminancia, el mejoramiento del contraste por medio de la ecualización del histograma, la suavización de la imagen y la detección de bordes. Luego aplicamos operaciones morfológicas sobre los bordes hallados y la transformada de Hough para detectar círculos, teniendo en cuenta un grado de tolerancia, dado que las ampollas de la varicela no son círculos perfectos. De esta forma se consigue, para un conjunto representativo de imágenes, un método de detección de ampollas de la varicela con una tasa razonable de aciertos.Sociedad Argentina de Informática e Investigación Operativ