Foreign inflows of remittances into sub-Saharan Africa

Please read the abstract in the 00front of this document.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2011.Economicsunrestricte

Remittances and the Dutch disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. A Dynamic Panel Approach

This paper investigates the effect of remittance inflows on the real exchange rate in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using annual data from 1980 to 2008 for 34 SSA countries, generalised method of moments by Arellano and Bover (1995) andfeasible generalised least squares by Parks (1967) and Kmenta (1971, 1986). We find that when cross-sectional dependence and individual effects are controlled for, remittances to SSA as a whole appreciate the underlying real exchange rate ofrecipient countries. However the Dutch-disease effect is not experienced via the loss of export competitiveness, because the exchange rate appreciation is mitigated by monetary policy positioning and overdependence on imports due to low levels of domestic production in these countries. We also find reverse causality between remittances and the real exchange rate.Dutch disease, remittances, real exchange rate, Sub-Saharan Africa

Editorial: Climate change, variability and sustainable food systems

Peer Reviewe

The impact of disasters on economic growth in selected Southern Africa Development Community countries

This research study explores the impact of disasters on economic growth in selected Southern Africa Development Community countries. Annual data from 2005 to 2019 and panel data econometric estimation techniques are used in this study. The estimation approaches used control for both pooled and individual effects, heteroscedasticity, serial correlation, moderate levels of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence (CSD). We found that although the impact of disasters on economic growth may be negative contemporaneously, reconstruction and recovery activities if well-resourced could facilitate building back better, which could ultimately lead to positive outcomes on economic growth a year after the disaster. We further tested the hypothesis in existing literature and confirm that quality institutions, favourable financial conditions and adequate access to international markets enhance a country’s coping and adaptive capabilities to disasters, thereby reducing the country’s level of risk to disasters.The Human Sciences Research Council for the research project, and the Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Tshwane University of Technology funded the publication of the article.http://www.jamba.org.za/index.php/jambaam2022Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen

Structural breaks and GARCH models of stock return volatility : the case of South Africa

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in forecasting stock return volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests applied to daily returns of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index from 07/02/1995 to 08/25/2010. We find evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of the stock returns series over the period, with high levels of persistence and variability in the parameter estimates of the GARCH(1,1) model across the sub-samples defined by the structural breaks. This indicates that structural breaks are empirically relevant to stock return volatility in South Africa. However, based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that even though there structural breaks in the volatility , there are no statistical gains from using competing models that explicitly accounts for structural breaks, relative to a GARCH(1,1) model with expanding window. This could be because of the fact that the two identified structural breaks occurred in our out-of-sample, and recursive estimation of the GARCH(1,1) model is perhaps sufficient to account for the effect of the breaks on the parameter estimates. Finally, we highlight that, given the point of the breaks, perhaps what seems more important in South Africa, is accounting for leverage effects, especially in terms of long-horizon forecasting of stock return volatility.www.elsevier.com/locate/ecmodhb201

The new normal? Cluster farming and smallholder commercialization in Ethiopia

Cluster farming is increasingly recognized as a viable means of improving smallholder economic integration and commercialization in many developing countries. However, little is known about its impact on smallholder welfare and livelihoods. We examine the relationship between cluster farming and small-holder commercialization using a large-scale survey of 3969 farm householding Ethiopia cultivating high-acreage crops such as teff, wheat, maize, barley,and sesame. Using switching regressions and instrumental variable estimators, we show that cluster farming is associated with commercialization measured as commercialization index, market surplus value, and market price. To further deal with endogeneity concerns, we also employ some pseudo-panel models where we observe similar insights. Beyond this, we account for heterogeneities by dis-aggregating households based on farm scales and crops cultivated. Our findings show that cluster farming is positively associated with commercialization for all farms and crop types despite this disaggregation. However, the related gains are higher among medium and large farms and vary per crop type. These findings imply that cluster farming is crucial in improving smallholder commercialization and may be a critical entry and leveraging point for policy. We thus lend support to initiatives and plans that seek to upscale cluster farming as they can potentially improve smallholder commercialization with ensuing impacts on rural livelihoods and welfare.https://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/agecAgricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen

Baseline malaria vector transmission dynamics in communities in Ahafo mining area in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Malaria vector dynamics are relevant prior to commencement of mining activities. A baseline entomology survey was conducted in Asutifi and Tano (referred to as Ahafo) in the Brong-Ahafo geo-political region of Ghana during preparatory stages for mining by Newmont Ghana Gold Limited. METHODS: Between November 2006 and August 2007, eight Centre for Disease Control light traps were set daily (Monday-Friday) to collect mosquitoes. Traps were hanged in rooms that were selected from a pool of 1,100 randomly selected houses. Types of materials used in construction of houses were recorded and mosquito prevention measures were assessed from occupants. RESULTS: A total of 5,393 mosquitoes were caught that comprised Anopheles gambiae (64.8%), Anopheles funestus (4.2%), as well as Culicines, comprising of Culex (30.4%) and Aedes species (0.6%). The entomological inoculation rate in Asutifi (279 infective bites/person/month) and Tano (487 infective bites/person/month) demonstrate relatively high malaria transmission in Ahafo. The presence or absence of Anopheles vectors in rooms was influenced by the type of roofing material (OR 2.33, 95%CI: 1.29-4.22, p = 0.01) as well as the presence of eaves gaps (OR 1.80, 95%CI: 1.37-2.37, p < 0.01). It was also associated with bed net availability in the room (OR 1.39, 95%CI: 1.08-1.80, p = 0.01). Over 80% of the houses were roofed with corrugated zinc sheets. Over 60% of the houses in Ahafo had no eaves gaps to give access to mosquito entry and exit into rooms and mosquito bed net coverage was over 50%. Other measures used in preventing mosquito bites included; coil (22.1%), insecticide spray (9.4%), repellent cream (4.0%) and smoky fires (1.1%), contributed minimally to individual mosquito preventive measures in impact areas. Similarly, levels of protection; coil (16.9%), insecticide spray (2.8%) and repellent cream (0.3%) for the non-impact areas, depict low individual prevention measures. CONCLUSIONS: The survey identified areas where intensified vector control activities would be beneficial. It also demonstrates that transmission in Asutifi and Tano is high even before the commencement of mining operations. This study serves as baseline information to assess impact of mining activities in relation to future vector control interventions

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

The impact of monetary policy on household consumption in South Africa: Evidence from vector autoregressive techniques

Background: This article adds to scarce sub-Saharan African and South African literature on monetary policy transmission mechanisms by looking into: (1) the Keynesian interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission in South Africa, focussing on the behaviour of household credit and household consumption; (2) using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (VAR) techniques with stochastic volatility to capture the time-varying nature of the underlying structure of the South African economy to see whether it performs better than the constant parameter VAR in so doing and (3) policy implications emerging from the findings of the study. Aim: In testing the hypotheses of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission, the aim is to see how household credit and ultimately household consumption have evolved in South Africa: (1) before inflation targeting (1994–1999), (2) after inflation targeting (2000–2007) and (3) during the global financial crisis (2007–2012) in response to different monetary policy positioning. Setting: We focus on three periods: post transition from apartheid, during inflation targeting and during the global financial crisis, periods which saw changes in the monetary policy stance in South Africa. Methods: Quarterly data from 1994Q1 to 2012Q4, constant parameter VAR and time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) techniques are used in this study. The use of the TVP-VAR is to capture the time-varying nature of the underlying structure of the South African economy and also to investigate whether it performs better than the constant parameter VAR in so doing. Results: The results show that household credit and consumption declined and stayed negative post transition and after inflation targeting – periods of monetary tightening in South Africa - but increased during the global financial crisis, which saw expansionary monetary policy measures aimed at mitigating the negative output gap in South Africa. Conclusion: These changes in household credit and consumption across the different time periods show evidence of the cost of credit effect of monetary policy on household consumption in South Africa. They further reflect the impact of different structural changes and exogenous shocks on monetary policy conduct in South Africa and its pass through effect on household consumption in South Africa. We further conclude that the time TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility performs better than the constant parameter VAR in capturing the time-varying nature of the underlying structure of the South African economy

Farming under irrigation management transfer scheme and its impact on yield and net returns in Ghana

This article analyses smallholder irrigation management transfer (IMT) scheme participation and its impacts on yield and net farm returns of rice farmers in northern Ghana. We apply the endogenous switching regression and control function approaches to account for both observed and unobserved policy-relevant drivers of farmers' decision to participate in IMT and potential endogeneity. Our results show that farmers' participation in the IMT scheme can enhance their rice yields by 39.56 % and net farm returns by 24.52 % in Ghana. The increased in yield and net returns are linked to the perceived improvement in water supply and availability of water at critical stages of production as well as personal, farm, institutional and location characteristics. Farmers' decision to operate under IMT schemes are influenced by both observed and unobserved drivers. Large scale rice production tends to be viable under IMT schemes. We discuss the policy implications of IMT scheme participation and recommend succinct policies based on its impact on the welfare of smallholder farmers in developing countries