Stochastic models of population extinction

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase exponentially with population size, whereas variation in environmental conditions can lead to a power law scaling. Recent work has focused especially on the influence of the autocorrelation structure ("color") of environmental noise. In theoretical physics, there is a burst of research activity in analyzing large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics. This research provides powerful tools for determining extinction times and characterizing the pathway to extinction. It yields, therefore, sharp insights into extinction processes and has great potential for further applications in theoretical biology.Comment: A popular review, to appear in "Trends in Ecology & Evolution", 42 pages, 5 figure

Prospects of Finnish regional development under EMU and deepening integration

Deepening integration and EMU will bring about different economic benefits and costs, which will be unevenly distributed between regions. In order to form an optimum currency area, the economic structures of regions should be similar and diversified enough to enable them to avoid large-scale asymmetric shocks. However, if the regions are structurally very different, there is a risk of these shocks, especially in the structurally most different, non-diversified and often economically weak areas. The risk will further increase if EMU leads to increasing and deepening regional specialisation. Within EMU the adjustment mechanisms of the economy are more limited than before, as the members of the monetary union do not have independent monetary policy. Fiscal policy is also controlled by different criteria and sanctions, and its ability to support the development of the weaker regions is limited. Therefore, the role of labour market flexibility and labour mobility as shock absorbers increases, although they both have traditionally been relatively low in Europe. Thus the future of regions under EMU is not without threats, and despite all the potential benefits of EMU, there is a risk of regionally imbalanced development. Regional differences in Finland are quite remarkable in terms of economic and production structures, production level, employment, economic sensitivity etc. The objective of the paper is to estimate the impacts of integration and EMU on the development of the Finnish regions. The main theoretical starting points are the theories of regional economic development and optimum currency area. The empirical part of the paper concentrates on a statistical analysis of the Finnish regional production and differences in the regional economic structures. The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the sensitivity of different regions, and analyse the potential benefits and costs under EMU. The analysis is mainly carried out at NUTS 3 level (provinces of Finland). The major indicators include production structure, export base, and entrepreneurship (number of SMEs). The paper also provides indices which describe the structural similarity of regional production compared to the average of Finland and potential EMU countries. The paper also tries to identify the special features and assess the competitiveness of different regions, also with an objective to find possible proposals on how to promote their development. Although the paper concentrates on the prospects of Finnish regions, the topics are also relevant from a wider European perspective.

Assessing the recreational demand for agricultural land in Finland

It is widely assumed that the scenic attractiveness and other public good aspects of agricultural land can be utilized as a source of livelihood in rural areas in the form of recreation and tourism. In this study we use two approaches to consider whether agricultural landscapes are preferred as a destination for recreation (day trips) and rural tourism (overnight trips). We first analyse the choice of recreation site type based on a model that aggregates sites using the presence of agricultural land as an aggregation variable. Population survey data on recreation trips reveal an association between the respondent’s living environment, recreational activities and visit characteristics and the probability of choosing a destination with agricultural land. Second, we also estimate the demand functions for trips to agricultural sites and other destination types to consider whether the presence of agricultural land, as opposed to other land use categories, increases the number of trips and the benefits of recreation. The results suggest that agricultural landscapes are inferior to alternative site types in terms of per-trip benefits. However, agricultural landscapes are associated with high annual benefits because of the high rate of visitation

Consumer versus citizen preferences in contingent valuation: evidence on the role of question framing

Rather than individual consumer preferences, responses to referendum-style contingent valuation surveys on environmental goods may express citizen assessments that take into account benefits to others. We reconsider the consumer versus citizen hypothesis with a focus on the role of framing information. Survey data on conservation areas in Ilomantsi, Finland, are used. Different versions of the valuation question were used to encourage the respondents to take the consumer or the citizen role. The citizen version expectedly resulted in substantially fewer zero-WTP responses and protests and higher mean and median WTP, suggesting that the framing information has a major effect on the preferences expressed. The findings support the idea of multiple preferences. For a more confident interpretation of contingent valuation responses, future studies should recognise their intended use in survey design and gain information about respondents’ motives to determine the presence and type of altruistic motives.altruism, benefit–cost analysis, conservation areas, contingent valuation, multiple preference orderings, referendum, spike model, Consumer/Household Economics,

Pollution-Induced Forest Damage, Optimal Harvest Age and Timber Supply: Some Theoretical Considerations

This paper examines the relationships of pollution-induced forest damage, optimal age of stand harvest, and timber supply from a theoretical perspective. Since future levels of forest damage will be important determinants of harvesting and silvicultural practices and thus of wood supply, they must be explicitly taken into account in any realistic analysis of alternative scenarios of future forest decline and appropriate policy responses

Prospects of Finnish regional development under EMU and deepening integration

Deepening integration and EMU will bring about different economic benefits and costs, which will be unevenly distributed between regions. In order to form an optimum currency area, the economic structures of regions should be similar and diversified enough to enable them to avoid large-scale asymmetric shocks. However, if the regions are structurally very different, there is a risk of these shocks, especially in the structurally most different, non-diversified and often economically weak areas. The risk will further increase if EMU leads to increasing and deepening regional specialisation. Within EMU the adjustment mechanisms of the economy are more limited than before, as the members of the monetary union do not have independent monetary policy. Fiscal policy is also controlled by different criteria and sanctions, and its ability to support the development of the weaker regions is limited. Therefore, the role of labour market flexibility and labour mobility as shock absorbers increases, although they both have traditionally been relatively low in Europe. Thus the future of regions under EMU is not without threats, and despite all the potential benefits of EMU, there is a risk of regionally imbalanced development. Regional differences in Finland are quite remarkable in terms of economic and production structures, production level, employment, economic sensitivity etc. The objective of the paper is to estimate the impacts of integration and EMU on the development of the Finnish regions. The main theoretical starting points are the theories of regional economic development and optimum currency area. The empirical part of the paper concentrates on a statistical analysis of the Finnish regional production and differences in the regional economic structures. The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the sensitivity of different regions, and analyse the potential benefits and costs under EMU. The analysis is mainly carried out at NUTS 3 level (provinces of Finland). The major indicators include production structure, export base, and entrepreneurship (number of SMEs). The paper also provides indices which describe the structural similarity of regional production compared to the average of Finland and potential EMU countries. The paper also tries to identify the special features and assess the competitiveness of different regions, also with an objective to find possible proposals on how to promote their development. Although the paper concentrates on the prospects of Finnish regions, the topics are also relevant from a wider European perspective