Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia

The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half-century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate-driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age-structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70-y-old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan Genotype-II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity exhibited by endemic DENV-1. Finally, we simulate an age-structured, mechanistic model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older-age infections witnessed in our data

Childhood encephalitis in the Greater Mekong region (the SouthEast Asia Encephalitis Project): a multicentre prospective study

International audienceBackgroundEncephalitis is a worldwide public health issue, with a substantially high burden among children in southeast Asia. We aimed to determine the causes of encephalitis in children admitted to hospitals across the Greater Mekong region by implementing a comprehensive state-of-the-art diagnostic procedure harmonised across all centres, and identifying clinical characteristics related to patients’ conditions.MethodsIn this multicentre, observational, prospective study of childhood encephalitis, four referral hospitals in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar recruited children (aged 28 days to 16 years) who presented with altered mental status lasting more than 24 h and two of the following minor criteria: fever (within the 72 h before or after presentation), one or more generalised or partial seizures (excluding febrile seizures), a new-onset focal neurological deficit, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) white blood cell count of 5 per mL or higher, or brain imaging (CT or MRI) suggestive of lesions of encephalitis. Comprehensive diagnostic procedures were harmonised across all centres, with first-line testing was done on samples taken at inclusion and results delivered within 24 h of inclusion for main treatable causes of disease and second-line testing was done thereafter for mostly non-treatable causes. An independent expert medical panel reviewed the charts and attribution of causes of all the included children. Using multivariate analyses, we assessed risk factors associated with unfavourable outcomes (ie, severe neurological sequelae and death) at discharge using data from baseline and day 2 after inclusion. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04089436, and is now complete.FindingsBetween July 28, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, 664 children with encephalitis were enrolled. Median age was 4·3 years (1·8–8·8), 295 (44%) children were female, and 369 (56%) were male. A confirmed or probable cause of encephalitis was identified in 425 (64%) patients: 216 (33%) of 664 cases were due to Japanese encephalitis virus, 27 (4%) were due to dengue virus, 26 (4%) were due to influenza virus, 24 (4%) were due to herpes simplex virus 1, 18 (3%) were due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, 17 (3%) were due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, 17 (3%) were due to enterovirus A71, 74 (9%) were due to other pathogens, and six (1%) were due to autoimmune encephalitis. Diagnosis was made within 24 h of admission to hospital for 83 (13%) of 664 children. 119 (18%) children had treatable conditions and 276 (42%) had conditions that could have been preventable by vaccination. At time of discharge, 153 (23%) of 664 children had severe neurological sequelae and 83 (13%) had died. In multivariate analyses, risk factors for unfavourable outcome were diagnosis of M tuberculosis infection upon admission (odds ratio 3·23 [95% CI 1·04–10·03]), coma on day 2 (2·90 [1·78–4·72]), supplementary oxygen requirement (1·89 [1·25–2·86]), and more than 1 week duration between symptom onset and admission to hospital (3·03 [1·68–5·48]). At 1 year after inclusion, of 432 children who were discharged alive from hospital with follow-up data, 24 (5%) had died, 129 (30%) had neurological sequelae, and 279 (65%) had completely recovered.InterpretationIn southeast Asia, most causes of childhood encephalitis are either preventable or treatable, with Japanese encephalitis virus being the most common cause. We provide crucial information that could guide public health policy to improve diagnostic, vaccination, and early therapeutic guidelines on childhood encephalitis in the Greater Mekong region