Twitter Attribute Classification with Q-Learning on Bitcoin Price Prediction

Aspiring to achieve an accurate Bitcoin price prediction based on people's opinions on Twitter usually requires millions of tweets, using different text mining techniques (preprocessing, tokenization, stemming, stop word removal), and developing a machine learning model to perform the prediction. These attempts lead to the employment of a significant amount of computer power, central processing unit (CPU) utilization, random-access memory (RAM) usage, and time. To address this issue, in this paper, we consider a classification of tweet attributes that effects on price changes and computer resource usage levels while obtaining an accurate price prediction. To classify tweet attributes having a high effect on price movement, we collect all Bitcoin-related tweets posted in a certain period and divide them into four categories based on the following tweet attributes: $(i)$ the number of followers of the tweet poster, $(ii)$ the number of comments on the tweet, $(iii)$ the number of likes, and $(iv)$ the number of retweets. We separately train and test by using the Q-learning model with the above four categorized sets of tweets and find the best accurate prediction among them. Especially, we design several reward functions to improve the prediction accuracy of the Q-leaning. We compare our approach with a classic approach where all Bitcoin-related tweets are used as input data for the model, by analyzing the CPU workloads, RAM usage, memory, time, and prediction accuracy. The results show that tweets posted by users with the most followers have the most influence on a future price, and their utilization leads to spending 80\% less time, 88.8\% less CPU consumption, and 12.5\% more accurate predictions compared with the classic approach.Comment: Submitted to a journa

From Prediction to Profit: A Comprehensive Review of Cryptocurrency Trading Strategies and Price Forecasting Techniques

The rapid evolution of cryptocurrency markets and the increasing complexity of trading strategies necessitate a comprehensive understanding of price-prediction models and their direct impact on trading efficacy. While extensive research has been conducted separately on price prediction methods and trading strategies, there remains a significant gap in studies explicitly correlating precise price forecasts with successful trading outcomes. This review paper addresses this gap by critically examining the role of accurate cryptocurrency price predictions in enhancing trading strategies. We conducted a systematic review of sufficient scholarly articles and web resources, focusing on the methodologies and effectiveness of various predictive models and their integration into cryptocurrency trading strategies. Our selection criteria ensured the inclusion of papers that demonstrate methodological rigor, relevance, and recent contributions to the field, spanning from economic theories and statistical models to advanced machine learning techniques. The findings reveal that precise price predictions significantly contribute to the development of adaptive and risk-managed trading strategies, which are crucial in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. The review also identifies current challenges and proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary approaches and ethical considerations in predictive modeling. This synthesis aims to bridge the existing research gap and guide future studies, thereby fostering more sophisticated and profitable trading strategies in the cryptocurrency domain

Forecasting Bitcoin Volatility Through on-Chain and Whale-Alert Tweet Analysis Using the Q-Learning Algorithm

As the adoption of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (BTC) continues to rise in today’s digital economy, understanding their unpredictable nature becomes increasingly critical. This research paper addresses this need by investigating the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, mainly focusing on Bitcoin trend prediction utilizing on-chain data and whale-alert tweets. By employing a Q-learning algorithm, a type of reinforcement learning, we analyze variables such as transaction volume, network activity, and significant Bitcoin transactions highlighted in whale-alert tweets. Our findings indicate that the algorithm effectively predicts Bitcoin trends when integrating on-chain and Twitter data. Consequently, this study offers valuable insights that could potentially guide investors in informed Bitcoin investment decisions, thereby playing a pivotal role in the realm of cryptocurrency risk management