ASSESSMENT OF TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN KARGI, MAIKONA, DAKABARICHA AND SOLOLO WARDS OF MARSABIT COUNTY, KENYA

Background. Climate change is a global phenomenon, with varying indicators and impacts from one region to another. The impacts of the changing climate are high in developing countries that are mainly dependent on climate-driven economic sectors such as pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. Objective. Analyze the temporal trend, the variability in temperature and precipitation, and the relationship between both parameters to determine the influence of the El Niño phenomenon in Marsabit County, Kenya, from 1981 to 2021. Methodology. Daily rainfall and temperature data for the four study locations (Maikona, Kargi, Dakabaricha, and Sololo) were obtained. The analysis of extremes was the main method used in the analysis of the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and temperature to establish the frequency and magnitude of climate variability in the study area. The seasonal mean plus or minus 1 Standard deviation for the entire period of study was used in the analysis of extremes. Results. Findings from trend analysis showed that rainfall trends have significantly increased in Marsabit County. Further, results on seasonal trends and variability of rainfall showed that March-April-May rainfall has been decreasing over the years. Below average rainfall has been experienced in Maikona in 2000 and 2011 with a magnitude of -42.9 mm, and -39.3 mm, respectively, while below average rainfall has been experienced in Kargi in 2000, 2009, 2011, and 2012 with a magnitude of -41.7 mm, -24.2 mm, -35.3 mm, and -34.3 mm, respectively. Analysis of the temperature trends and variability showed that both night and day temperatures have significantly increased over the years in Marsabit County. The magnitude of warming was found to be double that of cooling. The regression analysis further showed that there exists a negative correlation between temperatures and rainfall, implying that generally, rainfall decreases with increasing temperatures. Implications. This finding is important because it could help policymakers and people working on development in Marsabit County see what temperature and precipitation changes are happening locally. This could help them plan for climate change better. Both pastoral and agro-pastoral areas have been affected by both El Niño and La Niña activities, with the El Niño years recording the highest amounts of rainfall while the La Niña years recording the lowest amounts. Conclusions. This study recommends the use of rainwater harvesting during the October to December Season to take advantage of the increasing Trends and flood episodes associated with high magnitudes and frequencies of above average rainfall and use the same to cope with reduced rainfall in the March to May season

Gender-Differentiated Roles and Perceptions on Climate Variability among Pastoralist and Agro-Pastoralist Communities in Marsabit, Kenya

Climate variability and its impacts affect different members of gender groups in households and society differently. Within the pastoral community, women are more vulnerable, being among the poorest of the poor, and they are expected to be highly susceptible to climate variability effects. This study assesses gender perceptions of climate variability among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Marsabit County, Kenya. Results were triangulated with the use of data-collection techniques, including focused group discussions, individual interviews and field observations. These methods were used to analyse whether there is a difference in factors that determine the community perceptions of climate variability and trends by gender among the Marsabit pastoralist community. In analysing the study’s data, descriptive and inferential statistics were employed. The findings indicate that respondents’ perceptions of climate variability in the study area varied by gender, marital status and ethnic groups. The study reveals an increased workload of 48% for women and 32% for men resulting from climate impacts on daily household activities. In addition, the study found that 63% of male respondents primarily take on the role of decision-makers for their families, while 38% primarily serve as providers. In addition, 29% of male participants are responsible for providing security and 17% for managing family concerns within the community. In contrast, 33% of the female respondents predominantly fulfil the role of household domestic managers. The analysis further reveals that 90.3% of female and 86.8% of male respondents have noticed a decrease in rain received over time in the past two decades. This was reported to cause a burden on the most vulnerable members of the community, particularly women, by requiring them to travel long distances in search of water for household use. Gender and age affect who can access and control natural resources and household goods. This, in turn, affects the ability of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities to adapt, make a living and do other social and economic activities. The study recommends that, for climate impact adaptation measures to work, the community needs to put strategies that consider the different strengths, weaknesses and vulnerabilities of pastoral women and youth. Enactment and enforcement of gender-proactive policies and legislation that promote gender equity at the county level is highly recommended. The study further recommends using conventional weather forecasting to fill in the gaps left by the Indigenous Technical Knowledge Predictions. As a result, this study suggests that the public should be involved in creating agro-weather and climate advisories to lower vulnerability, boost resilience, boost productivity and ultimately improve the ability to adapt to climate impacts