Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations

© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Aflatoxins (AFs) are produced by fungi in crops and can cause liver cancer. Permitted levels are legislated and batches of grain are rejected based on average concentrations. Corn grown in Southern Georgia (GA), USA, which experiences drought during the mid-silk growth period in June, is particularly susceptible to infection by Aspergillus section Flavi species which produce AFs. Previous studies showed strong association between AFs and June weather. Risk factors were developed: June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and June rainfall  33 °C and rainfall < 50 mm increased and then plateaued for both emissions scenarios. The percentage of years thresholds were exceeded was greater for RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The spatial distribution of high-risk counties changed over time. Results suggest corn growth distribution should be changed or adaptation strategies employed like planting resistant varieties, irrigating and planting earlier. There were significantly more counties exceeding thresholds in 2010-2040 compared to 2000-2030 suggesting that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.Peer reviewe

Irrigation Scheduling to Promote Corn Productivity in Central Alabama

Agriculture is the largest consumer of water in the United States. Results from previous studies have shown thatit is possible to substantially reduce irrigation amounts and maintain corn yield. The objectives of this study wereto evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of two irrigation scheduling methods for corn production inAlabama. Two irrigation scheduling methods evaluated were: a) Checkbook, which is one of the conventionalmethods used by farmers that is based on the soil water balance estimated using water lost by evapotranspirationand its replacement through rainfall or irrigation, and b) Sensor-based, which was based on soil matric potentialvalues recorded by soil moisture tension sensors installed in the field. The experimental field was divided intotwo irrigation management zones (zone A and zone B) based on soil properties of each field. During the 2014season in zone A, significant grain yield differences were observed between the two irrigation methods. TheCheckbook plots exhibited greater yield than Sensor-based plots: 10181 kg ha-1 and 9696 kg ha-1, respectively.The greater yield on the Checkbook plots could be associated with higher irrigation rate applied, 148 mm more,compared with the Sensor-based plots. In zone B, there were no significant yield differences between bothirrigation methods; however, Sensor-based plots out yielded Checkbook plots, with 9673 kg ha-1 and 9584 kgha-1, respectively. Even though the irrigation amount applied in Checkbook located in zone B was higher, 102mm more, there were no significant yield differences. Therefore, it suggests that the Sensor-based method waspromissory irrigation scheduling strategy under the conditions of zone B. In 2015, there were no significant grainyield differences between zone A and zone B when the data from the Checkbook plots were analyzed. However,the Sensor-based treatment produced a statistically significant difference of grain yield of 13597 kg ha-1 in zoneA and 11659 kg ha-1 in zone B, also both zones received the same amount of irrigation. Overall results of bothgrowing seasons indicated that the use of the Sensor-based irrigation scheduling treatment resulted in similarvalues of total profit per hectare when compared to Checkbook method. The Sensor-based method seems apromising strategy that could result in water and financial savings, but more research is required.Fil: Da Cunha Leme Filho, Jose F.. Virginia Polytechnic Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Ortiz, Brenda V.. Auburn University.; Estados UnidosFil: Damianidis, Damianos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Santa Fe. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Oliveros; ArgentinaFil: Balkcom, Kipling S.. Usda-soil Dynamics Research; Estados UnidosFil: Dougherty, Mark. Auburn University.; Estados UnidosFil: Poschel, Thorsten. Auburn University.; Estados Unido

Retinoblastoma seeds: Impact on American Joint Committee on Cancer clinical staging

Aim To investigate whether the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) clinical category cT2b needs to be subclassified by the type and distribution of retinoblastoma (RB) seeding. Methods Multicentre, international registry-based data were collected from RB centres enrolled between January 2001 and December 2013. 1054 RB eyes with vitreous or subretinal seeds from 18 ophthalmic oncology centres, in 13 countries within six continents were analysed. Local treatment failure was defined as the use of secondary enucleation or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Clinical category cT2b included 1054 eyes. Median age at presentation was 16.0 months. Of these, 428 (40.6%) eyes were salvaged, and 430 (40.8%) were treated with primary and 196 (18.6%) with secondary enucleation. Of the 592 eyes that had complete data for globe salvage analysis, the distribution of seeds was focal in 143 (24.2%) and diffuse in 449 (75.8%). The 5-year Kaplan-Meier cumulative globe-salvage (without EBRT) was 78% and 49% for eyes with focal and diffuse RB seeding, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis confirmed a higher local treatment failure risk with diffuse seeds as compared with focal seeds (hazard rate: 2.8; p<0.001). There was insufficient evidence to prove or disprove an association between vitreous seed type and local treatment failure risk(p=0.06). Conclusion This international, multicentre, registry-based analysis of RB eyes affirmed that eyes with diffuse intraocular distribution of RB seeds at diagnosis had a higher risk of local treatment failure when compared with focal seeds. Subclassification of AJCC RB category cT2b into focal vs diffuse seeds will improve prognostication for eye salvage.Fil: Tomar, Ankit Singh. New York Eye Cancer Center; Estados UnidosFil: Finger, Paul T.. New York Eye Cancer Center; Estados UnidosFil: Gallie, Brenda. University Of Toronto. Hospital For Sick Children; CanadáFil: Kivelä, Tero. University of Helsinki; Finlandia. Helsinki University Hospital; FinlandiaFil: Mallipatna, Ashwin. University Of Toronto. Hospital For Sick Children; Canadá. Narayana Nethralaya; IndiaFil: Zhang, Chengyue. Beijing Children's Hospital; ChinaFil: Zhao, Junyang. Beijing Children's Hospital; ChinaFil: Wilson, Matthew. University of Tennessee; Estados UnidosFil: Brennan, Rachel. St Jude Children's Research Hospital; Estados UnidosFil: Burges, Michala. University of Tennessee; Estados UnidosFil: Kim, Jonathan. Keck Medical School of the University of Southern California; Estados UnidosFil: Berry, Jesse L.. Children's Hospital Los Angeles; Estados UnidosFil: Jubran, Rima. Childrens Hospital Society of Los Angeles; Estados UnidosFil: Khetan, Vikas. Vitreo Retinal Services; IndiaFil: Ganeshan, Suganeswari. Vitreo Retinal Services; IndiaFil: Yarovoy, Andrey. Fyodorov Eye Microsurgery Federal State Institution; RusiaFil: Yarovaya, Vera. Fyodorov Eye Microsurgery Federal State Institution; RusiaFil: Kotova, Elena. Fyodorov Eye Microsurgery Federal State Institution; RusiaFil: Volodin, Denis. Fyodorov Eye Microsurgery Federal State Institution; RusiaFil: Yousef, Yacoub. King Hussein Cancer Center; JordaniaFil: Nummi, Kalle. University of Helsinki; Finlandia. Helsinki University Hospital; FinlandiaFil: Ushakova, Tatiana L.. N.N. Blokhin Russian Cancer Research Center; Rusia. Russian Academy of Postgraduate Medical Education; RusiaFil: Yugay, Olga V.. N.N. Blokhin Russian Cancer Research Center; RusiaFil: Polyakov, Vladimir G. N.N. Blokhin Russian Cancer Research Center; Rusia. Russian Academy of Sciences; RusiaFil: Ramirez Ortiz, Marco Antonio. Hospital Infantil de Mexico Federico Gomez; MéxicoFil: Esparza Aguiar, Elizabeth. Hospital Infantil de Mexico Federico Gomez; MéxicoFil: Chantada, Guillermo Luis. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Pediatría "Juan P. Garrahan"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Schaiquevich, Paula Susana. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Pediatría "Juan P. Garrahan"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Fandiño, Adriana Cristina. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Pediatría "Juan P. Garrahan"; ArgentinaFil: Yam, Jason C.. The Chinese University of Hong Kong Faculty of Medicine; Hong Kon

TREASUREHUNT: Transients and Variability Discovered with HST in the JWST North Ecliptic Pole Time-domain Field

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) North Ecliptic Pole (NEP) Time-domain Field (TDF) is a >14′ diameter field optimized for multiwavelength time-domain science with JWST. It has been observed across the electromagnetic spectrum both from the ground and from space, including with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). As part of HST observations over three cycles (the “TREASUREHUNT” program), deep images were obtained with the Wide Field Camera on the Advanced Camera for Surveys in F435W and F606W that cover almost the entire JWST NEP TDF. Many of the individual pointings of these programs partially overlap, allowing an initial assessment of the potential of this field for time-domain science with HST and JWST. The cumulative area of overlapping pointings is ∼88 arcmin2, with time intervals between individual epochs that range between 1 day and 4+ yr. To a depth of m AB ≃ 29.5 mag (F606W), we present the discovery of 12 transients and 190 variable candidates. For the variable candidates, we demonstrate that Gaussian statistics are applicable and estimate that ∼80 are false positives. The majority of the transients will be supernovae, although at least two are likely quasars. Most variable candidates are active galactic nuclei (AGNs), where we find 0.42% of the general z ≲ 6 field galaxy population to vary at the ∼3σ level. Based on a 5 yr time frame, this translates into a random supernova areal density of up to ∼0.07 transients arcmin−2 (∼245 deg−2) per epoch and a variable AGN areal density of ∼1.25 variables arcmin−2 (∼4500 deg−2) to these depths

High anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroconversion rates before the second wave in Manaus, Brazil, and the protective effect of social behaviour measures: results from the prospective DETECTCoV-19 cohort

Background: The city of Manaus, Brazil, has seen two collapses of the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We report anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibody seroconversion rates and associated risk factors in Manaus residents before the second wave of the epidemic in Brazil. Methods: A convenience sample of adult (aged ≥18 years) residents of Manaus was recruited through online and university website advertising into the DETECTCoV-19 study cohort. The current analysis of seroconversion included a subgroup of DETECTCoV-19 participants who had at least two serum sample collections separated by at least 4 weeks between Aug 19 and Oct 2, 2020 (visit 1), and Oct 19 and Nov 27, 2020 (visit 2). Those who reported (or had no data on) having a COVID-19 diagnosis before visit 1, and who were positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies at visit 1 were excluded. Using an in-house ELISA, the reactivity index (RI; calculated as the optical density ratio of the sample to the negative control) for serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies was measured at both visits. We calculated the incidence of seroconversion (defined as RI values ≤1·5 at visit 1 and ≥1·5 at visit 2, and a ratio >2 between the visit 2 and visit 1 RI values) during the study period, as well as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) through cluster-corrected and adjusted Poisson regression models to analyse associations between seroconversion and variables related to sociodemographic characteristics, health access, comorbidities, COVID-19 exposure, protective behaviours, and symptoms. Findings: 2496 DETECTCoV-19 cohort participants returned for a follow-up visit between Oct 19 and Nov 27, 2020, of whom 204 reported having COVID-19 before the first visit and 24 had no data regarding previous disease status. 559 participants were seropositive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies at baseline. Of the remaining 1709 participants who were seronegative at baseline, 71 did not meet the criteria for seroconversion and were excluded from the analyses. Among the remaining 1638 participants who were seronegative at baseline, 214 showed seroconversion at visit 2. The seroconversion incidence was 13·06% (95% CI 11·52–14·79) overall and 6·78% (5·61–8·10) for symptomatic seroconversion, over a median follow-up period of 57 days (IQR 54–61). 48·1% of seroconversion events were estimated to be asymptomatic. The sample had higher proportions of affluent and higher-educated people than those reported for the Manaus city population. In the fully adjusted and corrected model, risk factors for seroconversion before visit 2 were having a COVID-19 case in the household (IRR 1·49 [95% CI 1·21–1·83]), not wearing a mask during contact with a person with COVID-19 (1·25 [1·09–1·45]), relaxation of physical distancing (1·31 [1·05–1·64]), and having flu-like symptoms (1·79 [1·23–2·59]) or a COVID-19 diagnosis (3·57 [2·27–5·63]) between the first and second visits, whereas working remotely was associated with lower incidence (0·74 [0·56–0·97]). Interpretation: An intense infection transmission period preceded the second wave of COVID-19 in Manaus. Several modifiable behaviours increased the risk of seroconversion, including non-compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions measures such as not wearing a mask during contact, relaxation of protective measures, and non-remote working. Increased testing in high-transmission areas is needed to provide timely information about ongoing transmission and aid appropriate implementation of transmission mitigation measures. Funding: Ministry of Education, Brazil; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas; Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO.World Health OrganizationRevisión por pare

A communal catalogue reveals Earth’s multiscale microbial diversity

Our growing awareness of the microbial world’s importance and diversity contrasts starkly with our limited understanding of its fundamental structure. Despite recent advances in DNA sequencing, a lack of standardized protocols and common analytical frameworks impedes comparisons among studies, hindering the development of global inferences about microbial life on Earth. Here we present a meta-analysis of microbial community samples collected by hundreds of researchers for the Earth Microbiome Project. Coordinated protocols and new analytical methods, particularly the use of exact sequences instead of clustered operational taxonomic units, enable bacterial and archaeal ribosomal RNA gene sequences to be followed across multiple studies and allow us to explore patterns of diversity at an unprecedented scale. The result is both a reference database giving global context to DNA sequence data and a framework for incorporating data from future studies, fostering increasingly complete characterization of Earth’s microbial diversity

A communal catalogue reveals Earth's multiscale microbial diversity

Our growing awareness of the microbial world's importance and diversity contrasts starkly with our limited understanding of its fundamental structure. Despite recent advances in DNA sequencing, a lack of standardized protocols and common analytical frameworks impedes comparisons among studies, hindering the development of global inferences about microbial life on Earth. Here we present a meta-analysis of microbial community samples collected by hundreds of researchers for the Earth Microbiome Project. Coordinated protocols and new analytical methods, particularly the use of exact sequences instead of clustered operational taxonomic units, enable bacterial and archaeal ribosomal RNA gene sequences to be followed across multiple studies and allow us to explore patterns of diversity at an unprecedented scale. The result is both a reference database giving global context to DNA sequence data and a framework for incorporating data from future studies, fostering increasingly complete characterization of Earth's microbial diversity.Peer reviewe

Global Retinoblastoma Presentation and Analysis by National Income Level.

Importance: Early diagnosis of retinoblastoma, the most common intraocular cancer, can save both a child's life and vision. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many children across the world are diagnosed late. To our knowledge, the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma has never been assessed on a global scale. Objectives: To report the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis in patients across the world during a single year, to investigate associations between clinical variables and national income level, and to investigate risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 278 retinoblastoma treatment centers were recruited from June 2017 through December 2018 to participate in a cross-sectional analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age at presentation, proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, and tumor stage and metastasis. Results: The cohort included 4351 new patients from 153 countries; the median age at diagnosis was 30.5 (interquartile range, 18.3-45.9) months, and 1976 patients (45.4%) were female. Most patients (n = 3685 [84.7%]) were from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, the most common indication for referral was leukocoria (n = 2638 [62.8%]), followed by strabismus (n = 429 [10.2%]) and proptosis (n = 309 [7.4%]). Patients from high-income countries (HICs) were diagnosed at a median age of 14.1 months, with 656 of 666 (98.5%) patients having intraocular retinoblastoma and 2 (0.3%) having metastasis. Patients from low-income countries were diagnosed at a median age of 30.5 months, with 256 of 521 (49.1%) having extraocular retinoblastoma and 94 of 498 (18.9%) having metastasis. Lower national income level was associated with older presentation age, higher proportion of locally advanced disease and distant metastasis, and smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma. Advanced disease at diagnosis was more common in LMICs even after adjusting for age (odds ratio for low-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 17.92 [95% CI, 12.94-24.80], and for lower-middle-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 5.74 [95% CI, 4.30-7.68]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study is estimated to have included more than half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017. Children from LMICs, where the main global retinoblastoma burden lies, presented at an older age with more advanced disease and demonstrated a smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, likely because many do not reach a childbearing age. Given that retinoblastoma is curable, these data are concerning and mandate intervention at national and international levels. Further studies are needed to investigate factors, other than age at presentation, that may be associated with advanced disease in LMICs

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress