Mathematical modelling and evaluation of the different routes of transmission of lumpy skin disease virus

Abstract Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe viral disease of cattle. Circumstantial evidence suggests that the virus is transmitted mechanically by blood-feeding arthropods. We compared the importance of transmission via direct and indirect contact in field conditions by using mathematical tools. We analyzed a dataset collected during the LSD outbreak in 2006 in a large dairy herd, which included ten separated cattle groups. Outbreak dynamics and risk factors for LSD were assessed by a transmission model. Transmission by three contact modes was modelled; indirect contact between the groups within a herd, direct contact or contact via common drinking water within the groups and transmission by contact during milking procedure. Indirect transmission was the only parameter that could solely explain the entire outbreak dynamics and was estimated to have an overall effect that was over 5 times larger than all other possible routes of transmission, combined. The R0 value induced by indirect transmission per the presence of an infectious cow for 1 day in the herd was 15.7, while the R0 induced by direct transmission was 0.36. Sensitivity analysis showed that this result is robust to a wide range of assumptions regarding mean and standard deviation of incubation period and regarding the existence of sub-clinically infected cattle. These results indicate that LSD virus spread within the affected herd could hardly be attributed to direct contact between cattle or contact through the milking procedure. It is therefore concluded that transmission mostly occurs by indirect contact, probably by flying, blood-sucking insects. This has important implications for control of LSD.</p

Association between Glycemic Control and Clinic Attendance in Emerging Adults with Type 1 Diabetes: A Tertiary Center Experience

Aims. The transition of emerging adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) from pediatric diabetes clinics to adult clinics between 18 and 21 years of age could result in decreased clinic attendance and thus worsen glycemic control. Our institutional policy offering surveillance till age 30 enabled us to evaluate clinic attendance without the confounding effect of transition. Our aim was to determine the association between glycemic control (HbA1c) and attendance rate. Methods. The medical records of 261 (54% males) young adult T1D patients (median age 22.9 years) were reviewed. Patients were stratified according to the attainment/nonattainment of glycemic targets (HbA1c ≤ 7% versus HbA1c > 7% (53 mmol/mol)). The attendance rate was calculated as the number of clinic visits/number of scheduled appointments. Results. Median annual number of scheduled visits was 3 (3, 4); attendance rate was 75% (53.6%, 100%). Seventy-four (28.4%) patients attained glycemic targets (median HbA1c 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) (6.3%, 6.8% (45.51 mmol/mol)); 187 (71.6%) patients had a median HbA1c of 7.8% (62 mmol/mol) (7.4%, 8.4% (57.68 mmol/mol)). The attainment of the treatment target was more prevalent in older patients (P=0.006), in male patients (P=0.007), and in patients with higher education (P=0.017). Higher attendance rate (β (2.483), P<0.001) and male gender (β (0.746), P=0.015) were associated with better metabolic control. Conclusions. In emerging adults with T1D during the ongoing stable phase of diabetes management, higher attendance rate, rather than absolute number of clinic visits, was associated with the attainment of glycemic targets

Bluetongue Serotype 3 in Israel 2013–2018: Clinical Manifestations of the Disease and Molecular Characterization of Israeli Strains

In this paper, the results of the diagnostic activities on Bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) conducted at Kimron Veterinary Institute (Beit Dagan, Israel) between 2013 and 2018 are reported. Bluetongue virus is the causative agent of bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, mostly transmitted by competent Culicoides species. In Israel, BTV-3 circulation was first detected in 2013 from a sheep showing classical BT clinical signs. It was also evidenced in 2016, and, since then, it has been regularly detected in Israeli livestock. Between 2013 and 2017, BTV-3 outbreaks were limited in sheep flocks located in the southern area only. In 2018, BTV-3 was instead found in the Israeli coastal area being one of the dominant BTV serotypes isolated from symptomatic sheep, cattle and goats. In Israeli sheep, BTV-3 was able to cause BT classical clinical manifestations and fatalities, while in cattle and goats infection ranged from asymptomatic forms to death cases, depending on either general welfare of the herds or on the occurrence of viral and bacterial co-infections. Three different BTV-3 strains were identified in Israel between 2013 and 2018: ISR-2019/13 isolated in 2013, ISR-2153/16 and ISR-2262/2/16 isolated in 2016. Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of these strains showed more than 99% identity by segment (Seg) 2, 5, 6, 7, and 8 sequences. In contrast, a wide range of diversity among these strains was exhibited in other viral gene segments, implying the occurrence of genome reassortment between these local circulating strains and those originating from Africa. The genome sequences of the BTV-3 isolated in 2017 and 2018 were most closely related to those of the ISR-2153/16 strain suggesting their common ancestor. Comparison of BTV-3 Israeli strains with those recently detected in the Mediterranean region uncovered high percentage identity (98.19–98.28%) only between Seg-2 of all Israeli strains and the BTV-3 Zarzis/TUN2016 strain. A 98.93% identity was also observed between Seg-4 sequences of ISR-2019/13 and the BTV-3 Zarzis/TUN2016 strain. This study demonstrated that BTV-3 has been circulating in the Mediterranean region at least since 2013, but, unlike the other Mediterranean strains, Israeli BTV-3 were able to cause clinical signs also in cattle