Shelf space strategy in long-tail markets

The Internet is known to have had a powerful impact on on-line retailer strategies in markets characterised by long-tail distribution of sales. Such retailers can exploit the long tail of the market, since they are effectively without physical limit on the number of choices on offer. Here we examine two extensions of this phenomenon. First, we introduce turnover into the long-tail distribution of sales. Although over any given period such as a week or a month, the distribution is right-skewed and often power law distributed, over time there is considerable turnover in the rankings of sales of individual products. Second, we establish some initial results on the implications for shelf-space strategy of physical retailers in such markets.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Relationship between minimum gap and success probability in adiabatic quantum computing

We explore the relationship between two figures of merit for an adiabatic quantum computation process: the success probability P and the minimum gap Δmin between the ground and first excited states, investigating to what extent the success probability for an ensemble of problem Hamiltonians can be fitted by a function of Δmin and the computation time T. We study a generic adiabatic algorithm and show that a rich structure exists in the distribution of P and Δmin. In the case of two qubits, P is to a good approximation a function of Δmin, of the stage in the evolution at which the minimum occurs and of T. This structure persists in examples of larger systems

Evidence of biological recovery from gross pollution in English and Welsh rivers over three decades

Uncertainty around the changing ecological status of European rivers reflects an evolving array of anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. Although previous studies have revealed some recovery from historical pollution in the 1990s and early-2000s, there are contrasting trends among pollutants across Europe and recovery may have even stalled or been reversed. To provide more contemporary evidence on trends and status, here we investigate changes in English and Welsh river macroinvertebrate communities over almost 30 years (1991–2019) using a network of nearly 4000 survey locations. Analysis comprised: i) trends in taxonomic and functional richness, community composition and ecological traits, ii) gains, losses and turnover of taxa, and the overall homogeneity of macroinvertebrate communities nationally, and iii) an exploration of how temporal trends varied with catchment characteristics. Taxonomic richness increased, primarily in the 1990s, whilst a shift towards pollution-sensitive taxa continued throughout the study period, accompanied by a growing prevalence in traits such as preferences for fast-flowing conditions, coarser substrata, and ‘shredding’ or ‘scraping’ feeding strategies. Changes consistent with improvement occurred in both urbanised and agricultural catchments, but were more pronounced in urban rivers as they gained pollution sensitive taxa that were otherwise more prevalent in rural rivers. Overall, these results indicate continuing biological recovery from organic pollution, consistent with national scale trends in water quality. Results reemphasise the importance of looking at multiple facets of diversity, with periods of near-constant richness disguising changes in taxonomic and functional composition. Whilst this national-scale picture is broadly positive, we highlight the need to investigate more local variations or pollutants that depart from this aggregate picture

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world

Enhanced methane reforming activity of a hydrothermally synthesised co-doped perovskite catalyst

A catalyst for the direct reforming of methane and simulated biogas has been prepared using a green and low temperature hydrothermal method. The nickel and iron co-doped SrZrO3 perovskite shows catalytic activity comparable to 10% Ni/Al2O3, but with an almost 50% saving in nickel content and a significant reduction in unwanted carbon deposition through thermal decomposition of methane and the Boudouard reaction. The use of a catalyst with a low active metal content produced via a hydrothermal route provides an attractive and sustainable method of production of synthesis gas from both methane and biogas for potential use in solid oxide fuel cells

Potential drivers of changing ecological conditions in English and Welsh rivers since 1990

River invertebrate communities across Europe have been changing in response to variations in water quality over recent decades, but the underlying drivers are difficult to identify because of the complex stressors and environmental heterogeneity involved. Here, using data from ~4000 locations across England and Wales, collected over 29 years, we use three approaches to help resolve the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in the face of this complexity: i) mapping changes in invertebrate richness and community composition; ii) structural equation modelling (SEM) to distinguish land cover, water quality and climatic influences; and iii) geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify how the apparent relationships between invertebrate communities and abiotic variables change across the area. Mapping confirmed widespread increases in richness and the proportion of pollution-sensitive taxa across much of England and Wales. It also revealed regions where pollution-sensitive taxa or overall richness declined, the former primarily in the uplands. SEMs confirmed strong increases in average biochemical oxygen demand and nutrient concentrations related to urban and agricultural land cover, but only a minority of land cover's effect upon invertebrate communities was explained by average water chemistry, highlighting potential factors such as episodic extremes or emerging contaminants. GWR identified strong geographical variation in estimated relationships between macroinvertebrate communities and environmental variables, with evidence that the estimated negative impacts of nutrients and water temperature were increasing through time. Overall the results are consistent with widespread biological recovery of Britain's rivers from past gross organic pollution, whilst highlighting declines in some of the most diverse and least impacted streams. Modelling points to a complex and changing set of drivers, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of catchment land cover and the evolving role of different stressors, with the relationship to gross organic pollution weakening, whilst estimated nutrient and warming effects strengthened

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world

Differential Drug Survival of Biologic Therapies for the Treatment of Psoriasis: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR)

Drug survival reflects a drug’s effectiveness, safety, and tolerability. We assessed the drug survival of biologics used to treat psoriasis in a prospective national pharmacovigilance cohort (British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR)). The survival rates of the first course of biologics for 3,523 biologic-naive patients with chronic plaque psoriasis were compared using survival analysis techniques and predictors of discontinuation analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Data for patients on adalimumab (n=1,879), etanercept (n=1,098), infliximab (n=96), and ustekinumab (n=450) were available. The overall survival rate in the first year was 77%, falling to 53% in the third year. Multivariate analysis showed that female gender (hazard ratio (HR) 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09–1.37), being a current smoker (HR 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03–1.38), and a higher baseline dermatology life quality index (HR 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02) were predictors of discontinuation. Presence of psoriatic arthritis (HR 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71–0.96) was a predictor for drug survival. As compared with adalimumab, patients on etanercept (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.45–1.84) or infliximab (HR 1.56; 95% CI: 1.16–2.09) were more likely to discontinue therapy, whereas patients on ustekinumab were more likely to persist (HR 0.48; 95% CI: 0.37–0.62). After accounting for relevant covariates, ustekinumab had the highest first-course drug survival. The results of this study will aid clinical decision making when choosing biologic therapy for psoriasis patients

Acidity promotes degradation of multi-species environmental DNA in lotic mesocosms

Accurate quantification of biodiversity is fundamental to understanding ecosystem function and for environmental assessment. Molecular methods using environmental DNA (eDNA) offer a non-invasive, rapid, and cost-effective alternative to traditional biodiversity assessments, which require high levels of expertise. While eDNA analyses are increasingly being utilized, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the dynamics of multispecies eDNA, especially in variable systems such as rivers. Here, we utilize four sets of upland stream mesocosms, across an acid–base gradient, to assess the temporal and environmental degradation of multispecies eDNA. Sampling included water column and biofilm sampling over time with eDNA quantified using qPCR. Our findings show that the persistence of lotic multispecies eDNA, sampled from water and biofilm, decays to non-detectable levels within 2 days and that acidic environments accelerate the degradation process. Collectively, the results provide the basis for a predictive framework for the relationship between lotic eDNA degradation dynamics in spatio-temporally dynamic river ecosystems