Combined hormonal contraceptive use in Europe before and after the European Commission mandated changes in product information

Objectives: We investigated combined hormonal contraceptives (CHC) prescribing patterns (focusing on combined oral contraceptives; COC) in three countries (Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom) in a time period preceding and in a time period following the European Commission's decision to update product information, and we estimated changes in incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) between the two periods. / Study design: We conducted a drug utilization analysis and a cohort study using routinely collected data. We calculated number, proportion and incidence rate of new users, switchers, and stoppers of COC in both time periods. VTE incidence was calculated in new users of COC and in all women aged 18–49 years. / Results: In all countries, the largest proportion (> 75%) of new users used COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate, (i.e., indicated by European Medicines Agency (EMA) as the safest preparations) in both time periods. Switching did not demonstrate a clear pattern towards these types of COC and distribution of stoppers was similar in both time periods. While the proportion of new users initiating COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate increased slightly, this did not translate to a decrease in the overall VTE incidence. / Conclusion: All three countries had the greatest proportion of women initiating a COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate, and this proportion increased in the period after the European Commission decision albeit the increase was small due to the high percentage of use before the decision. This did not translate into a measureable change in the incidence of VTE. / Implications: Both before and after the European Commission's decision, the largest proportion of new users started with combined oral contraceptives containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate. Earlier studies had already indicated an increased risk of VTE associated with COC containing other progestogens compared with these preparations, so it is possible that physicians were already preferentially prescribing COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate to new users

Risk of cancer in patients with thyroid disease and venous thromboembolism

Diana H Christensen,1 Katalin Veres,1 Anne G Ording,1 Jens Otto L Jørgensen,2 Suzanne C Cannegieter,3 Reimar W Thomsen,1 Henrik T Sørensen1 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Department of Endocrinology and Internal Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands Objective: Risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is increased in patients with hypo/hyperthyroidism. It is unknown whether VTE may be a presenting symptom of occult cancer in these patients. Design: Nationwide population-based cohort study based on Danish medical registry data. Methods: We identified all patients diagnosed with VTE during 1978–2013 who had a previous or concurrent diagnosis of hypothyroidism (N=1481) or hyperthyroidism (N=1788). We followed them until a first-time cancer diagnosis, death, emigration, or study end, whichever came first. We calculated 1-year absolute cancer risk and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer incidence in the study population compared with national cancer incidence in the general population. Results: During the first year after a VTE diagnosis, the 1-year absolute cancer risk was 3.0% among patients with hypothyroidism and 3.9% among those with hyperthyroidism. During the first year of follow-up, SIRs for cancer in the study population compared with the general population were 1.96 (95% CI: 1.42–2.64) among patients with hypothyroidism and 2.67 (95% CI: 2.07–3.39) among those with hyperthyroidism. SIRs declined substantially after 1 year but remained increased during the remainder of the follow-up period (up to 36 years) (SIR for hypothyroidism=1.16 [95% CI: 0.97–1.39]; SIR for hyperthyroidism=1.26 [95% CI: 1.08–1.46]). Conclusion: VTE may be a marker of underlying occult cancer in patients with hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism. Keywords: hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, venous thromboembolism, cancer, cohort stud

Concepts of comorbidities, multiple morbidities, complications, and their clinical epidemiologic analogs

Anne Gulbech Ording, Henrik Toft Sørensen Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark Abstract: The proportion of older people in the world population is expected to increase rapidly during the upcoming decades. Consequently, the number of patients with multimorbidity will increase dramatically. In epidemiologic research, the concepts of multimorbidity, comorbidity, and complications have been confusing, and some of these concepts are used interchangeably. In this commentary, the authors propose a clear terminology for clinical concepts describing different aspects of multimorbidity and elucidate the relationship between these clinical concepts and their epidemiologic analogs. Depending on whether a study uses causal or predictive models, a proper distinction between concepts of multimorbidity is important. It can be very difficult to separate complications of the index disease under study from comorbidity. In this context, use of comorbidity indices as confounding scores should be done with caution. Other methodologic issues are type, duration, severity, and number of comorbidities included in the ascertainment methods, as well as sources included in the research. Studies that recognize these challenges have the potential to yield valid estimates of the comorbidity burden and results that can be compared with other studies. Keywords: epidemiology, epidemiologic methods, comorbidity, complications, diagnosis-related groups, risk adjustmen

Challenges in translating end points from trials to observational cohort studies in oncology

Anne Gulbech Ording,1 Deirdre Cronin-Fenton,1 Vera Ehrenstein,1 Timothy L Lash,1,2 John Acquavella,1 Mikael Rørth,1 Henrik Toft Sørensen1 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA Abstract: Clinical trials are considered the gold standard for examining drug efficacy and for approval of new drugs. Medical databases and population surveillance registries are valuable resources for post-approval observational research, which are increasingly used in studies of benefits and risk of new cancer drugs. Here, we address the challenges in translating endpoints from oncology trials to observational studies. Registry-based cohort studies can investigate real-world safety issues – including previously unrecognized concerns – by examining rare endpoints or multiple endpoints at once. In contrast to clinical trials, observational cohort studies typically do not exclude real-world patients from clinical practice, such as old and frail patients with comorbidity. The observational cohort study complements the clinical trial by examining the effectiveness of interventions applied in clinical practice and by providing evidence on long-term clinical outcomes, which are often not feasible to study in a clinical trial. Various endpoints can be included in clinical trials, such as hard endpoints, soft endpoints, surrogate endpoints, and patient-reported endpoints. Each endpoint has it strengths and limitations for use in research studies. Endpoints used in oncology trials are often not applicable in observational cohort studies which are limited by the setting of standard clinical practice and by non-standardized endpoint determination. Observational studies can be more helpful moving research forward if they restrict focus to appropriate and valid endpoints. Keywords: endpoint determination, medical oncology, treatment outcome, neoplasms, research desig