Empirical assessment of the impact of external reserves on economic growth in Nigeria

In the last few decades, the continuous depreciation in the value of the naira occasioned by the dwindling external reserves affected the exchange rate resulting in several macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria. The objective of the study is to examine the impact of external reserves on economic growth in Nigeria. The study utilizes the descriptive approach for the trend analysis, while the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was relied upon in scrutinizing the contemporaneous dynamics for the unrestricted ECM. The data that were culled from several issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s annual report and statement of account covered the period 1986–2020. Descriptively, the study finds that economic growth rate and external reserves witnessed fluctuations with the latter being relatively more pronounced. Accordingly, the study finds that in the long run, all the explanatory variables were key determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, economic growth is significantly and positively responsive to changes in external reserves by 0.22%, inflation rate by 0.08%, and a one period lag of GDP of 0.21% contrary to its negative response to changes in exchange rate of 0.10% in the short run. The paper recommended that the government may consider providing conducive environment for increased productivity, thereby increasing foreign reserves. Likewise, the situation that may encourage exchange rate misalignment should be avoided. Finally, inflation rate must be controlled within a single digit

Agro-productivity amidst environmental degradation and energy usage in Nigeria

This study revisits the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 which aims to “end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” by highlighting the impact of environmental degradation (proxied by carbon emissions) and non-renewable energy on agro-productivity in Nigeria. Using annual time series data from 1980 to 2018, the study engages the Johansen cointegration and impulse response functions (IRFs) techniques within the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. Evidence reveals that carbon emissions significantly reduce agro-productivity by 0.23% while non-renewable energy boosts agro-productivity by 5.38%, on average, ceteris paribus. Other results reveal that domestic credit, rural population and arable land exert asymmetric effects. These outcomes are consistent and align with a priori expectations. Policy recommendations are discussed

Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Johannsen and Error Correction Model Techniques

The desire to ascertain the kind of relationship between finance and growth is not new among scholars. This study attempted to give a better understanding of the type of relationship by analysing post-SAP (Structural Adjustment Programme) time-series data since the notable financial reforms began with SAP in Nigeria. The study employed the Johannsen Cointegration, error correction and granger causality as estimation techniques to determine the nexus between financial deepening and economic growth. The variables contained in the model include the ratio of credit to the private sector to gross domestic product (CPS) which proxy bank-based financial deepening, the proportion of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (MCAP) which proxy for stock market development. The result of the analysis revealed that the Nigerian economic growth is influenced by financial deepening positively and significantly, especially the bank-based financial depth

Exchange rate fluctuations and manufacturing output: Stylized evidence in Nigeria

One of the key engines of growth in many countries is the manufacturing sector, whose performance is impacted by the movement of the local currency. The manufacturing sector also offers opportunities like increased commerce, innovation, competitiveness, increasing exports, and productivity, which will only be possible when exchange rate is in the form of currency appreciation. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian manufacturing output. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity technique was used in the study in order to examine the exchange rate oscillations. The result of the model estimation revealed that there is no persistence of shocks in the volatility of the exchange rate in the Nigerian economy. The business cycle stylized facts were also used to examine exchange rate volatility and the result established that exchange rate is highly volatile and has a negative effect on manufacturing output in Nigeria. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Bounds test was used to establish the long-run relationship and the result showed that there is a long-run relationship between exchange rate and manufacturing output. The variance decomposition and Impulse Response function were employed and the resul

THE NEXUS BETWEEN HUMAN CAPITAL AND INCOME INEQUALITY: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE

The study examines the relationship between human capital and income inequality in Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. The study made use of secondary data and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test estimation technique to analyze the data. The variables used in the analysis include income inequality, tertiary education enrolment, secondary school enrolment, government health expenditure, inflation rate, employment rate and gdp per capita. The results of the findings showed that one-year lagged income inequality and secondary school enrolment are both significant at the 5% level. In the long run, tertiary education enrolment, secondary school enrolment, government expenditure on health and employment rate are all statistically significant at the 1% level. Thus, in the long run, all the indicators of human capital are significant drivers of income inequality in Nigeria. Notwithstanding, of all the indicators, only tertiary school enrolment is negatively related to income inequality, as expected. The implication is that, in Nigeria, it is tertiary school enrolment that significantly lowers income inequality. Sequel to the finding in respect of the importance of tertiary school enrolment, it is recommended that policy makers continually support enrolment to tertiary schools in order to continuously witness significant declines in income inequality in Nigeria