The myth of a classless Britain: the political marginalisation of the working class

Drawing on a recent study, Oliver Heath presents an examination of class-based inequalities in turnout at British elections. These inequalities have substantially grown over time. The analysis suggests that the decline in proportion of elected representatives from working-class backgrounds is strongly associated with the rise of working-class abstention

Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Many of the lessons from the polling debacle of 1992 have been learned, but it may be time to address the underlying causes of the error rather than just treating the symptoms, writes Oliver Heath

Why the UK’s pre-election polls got it so wrong: is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

One of the key stories of the UK’s general election was the extent to which pre-election polling understated the true level of Conservative support in the electorate. Oliver Heath writes that while many of the lessons have been learned from the last major polling debacle in the UK in 1992, it may be time to take probability sampling more seriously

Has the rise of middle class politicians led to the decline of class voting in Britain?

How does the social background of MPs and candidates influence voting behaviour? Analysis by Oliver Heath of class voting in Britain between 1964 and 2010 shows that the social cues that parties send voters matter and that working class voters are relatively more likely to vote Labour when the party contains many working class MPs

A tale of two countries: Brexit and the ‘left behind’ thesis

Why did Britain vote for Brexit and what was the relative importance of social class, age, and immigration in determining the result? Using aggregate level data, Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath outline some of the key factors that accounted for the overall Leave victory and the variation in support experienced across different geographic areas

Why Theresa May's gamble at the polls failed

What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election result? What difference did the collapse of UKIP make? And what was the relative importance of factors such as turnout, education, age, and ethnic diversity on support for the two main parties? In a new article forthcoming in Political Quarterly, Oliver Heath and Matthew Goodwin answer these questions

The Structure of Party-Organization Linkages and the Electoral Strength of Cleavages in Italy, 1963–2008

No consensus exists on the causal mechanisms underpinning declining voting based on social cleavages – religion and class – in Europe. Previous research has emphasized two main factors: social change within the electorate (bottom-up) and parties’ policy polarization (top-down). This article presents a third level of analysis that links parties and cleavage-related social organizations, producing a factor capable of reinforcing group identity and interest representation. This hypothesis was tested for Italy in 1968–2008, where changes in the party system provided a natural experiment to assess the impact of changing structural alternatives at the party–organizational level. The level of cleavage voting in Italy then responded primarily to changes in the structure of party–organization linkages, while the impact of policy mobilization and social change was negligible