Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013

We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we investigate the forecasting power of the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio1 for these sectors. With regard to the CAPE ratio, which has originally been devised and employed by Campbell and Shiller (1988, 1998, 2001) as well as Shiller (2005), we define a methodological improvement to this ratio to not only be robust to inflationary changes, but also to changes in corporate payout policy. We then update the original evidence from Campbell and Shiller (1998, 2001) of the return predictability of the CAPE ratio for the overall stock market and furthermore extend this evidence to the three aforementioned sectors individually. Whereas this part of our analysis focuses on each sector of the US economy in isolation, we subsequently construct an indicator from the CAPE ratio that enables us to perform valuation comparisons across sectors. In addition to establishing the prediction of subsequent return differences based on differences in the CAPE-based valuation indicator, we also suggest a hypothetical, historical, and simple value investment strategy that rotates between the three sectors based on the valuation signals derived from the CAPE-based indicator, generating slightly more than 1:09% annualized, inflation-adjusted excess total return over the market benchmark during a period of nearly 110 years

Fictive Learning in Choice under Uncertainty: A Logistic Regression Model

This paper is an exposition of an experiment on revealed preferences, where we posite a novel discrete binary choice model. To estimate this model, we use general estimating equations or GEE. This is a methodology originating in biostatistics for estimating regression models with correlated data. In this paper, we focus on the motivation for our approach, the logic and intuition underlying our analysis and a summary of our findings. The missing technical details are in the working paper by Bunn, et al. (2013). The experimental data is available from the corresponding author: [email protected] . The recruiting poster and informed consent form are attached as appendices

Testing for Fictive Learning in Decision-Making under Uncertainty

We conduct two experiments where subjects make a sequence of binary choices between risky and ambiguous binary lotteries. Risky lotteries are defined as lotteries where the relative frequencies of outcomes are known. Ambiguous lotteries are lotteries where the relative frequencies of outcomes are not known or may not exist. The trials in each experiment are divided into three phases: pre-treatment, treatment and post-treatment. The trials in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases are the same. As such, the trials before and after the treatment phase are dependent, clustered matched-pairs, that we analyze with the alternating logistic regression (ALR) package in SAS. In both experiments, we reveal to each subject the outcomes of her actual and counterfactual choices in the treatment phase. The treatments differ in the complexity of the random process used to generate the relative frequencies of the payoffs of the ambiguous lotteries. In the first experiment, the probabilities can be inferred from the converging sample averages of the observed actual and counterfactual outcomes of the ambiguous lotteries. In the second experiment the sample averages do not converge. If we define fictive learning in an experiment as statistically significant changes in the responses of subjects before and after the treatment phase of an experiment, then we expect fictive learning in the first experiment, but no fictive learning in the second experiment. The surprising finding in this paper is the presence of fictive learning in the second experiment. We attribute this counterintuitive result to apophenia: “seeing meaningful patterns in meaningless or random data.” A refinement of this result is the inference from a subsequent Chi-squared test, that the effects of fictive learning in the first experiment are significantly different from the effects of fictive learning in the second experiment

The impact of Cochrane Systematic Reviews : a mixed method evaluation of outputs from Cochrane Review Groups supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research

© 2014 Bunn et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: There has been a growing emphasis on evidence-informed decision making in health care. Systematic reviews, such as those produced by the Cochrane Collaboration, have been a key component of this movement. The UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Systematic Review Programme currently supports 20 Cochrane Review Groups (CRGs). The aim of this study was to identify the impacts of Cochrane reviews published by NIHR funded CRGs during the years 2007-11. Methods: We sent questionnaires to CRGs and review authors, interviewed guideline developers and used bibliometrics and documentary review to get an overview of CRG impact and to evaluate the impact of a sample of 60 Cochrane reviews. We used a framework with four categories (knowledge production, research targeting, informing policy development, and impact on practice/services). Results: A total of 1502 new and updated reviews were produced by the 20 NIHR funded CRGs between 2007-11. The clearest impacts were on policy with a total of 483 systematic reviews cited in 247 sets of guidance; 62 were international, 175 national (87 from the UK) and 10 local. Review authors and CRGs provided some examples of impact on practice or services, for example safer use of medication, the identification of new effective drugs or treatments and potential economic benefits through the reduction in the use of unproven or unnecessary procedures. However, such impacts are difficult to objectively document and the majority of reviewers were unsure if their review had produced specific impacts. Qualitative data suggested that Cochrane reviews often play an instrumental role in informing guidance although a poor fit with guideline scope or methods, reviews being out of date and a lack of communication between CRGs and guideline developers were barriers to their use. Conclusions: Health and economic impacts of research are generally difficult to measure. We found that to be the case with this evaluation. Impacts on knowledge production and clinical guidance were easier to identify and substantiate than those on clinical practice. Questions remain about how we define and measure impact and more work is needed to develop suitable methods for impact analysis.Peer reviewe

Hybrid materials based on polyethylene and MCM-41 microparticles functionalized with silanes: catalytic aspects of in situ polymerization, crystalline features and mechanical properties

New nanocomposites based on polyethylene have been prepared by in situ polymerization of ethylene in presence of mesoporous MCM-41. The polymerization reactions were performed using a zirconocene catalyst either under homogenous conditions or supported onto mesoporous MCM-41 particles, which are synthesized and decorated post-synthesis with two silanes before polymerization in order to promote an enhanced interfacial adhesion. The existence of polyethylene chains able to crystallize within the mesoporous channels in the resulting nanocomposites is figured out from the small endothermic process, located at around 80 C, on heating calorimetric experiments, in addition to the main melting endotherm. These results indicate that polyethylene macrochains can grow up during polymerization either outside or inside the MCM-41 channels, these keeping their regular hexagonal arrangements. Mechanical response is observed to be dependent on the content in mesoporous MCM-41 and on the crystalline features of polyethylene. Accordingly, stiffness increases and deformability decreases in the nanocomposites as much as MCM-41 content is enlarged and polyethylene amount within channels is raised. Ultimate mechanical performance improves with MCM-41 incorporation without varying the final processing temperature

Single-cell RNA-seq and computational analysis using temporal mixture modelling resolves Th1/Tfh fate bifurcation in malaria.

Differentiation of naïve CD4+ T cells into functionally distinct T helper subsets is crucial for the orchestration of immune responses. Due to extensive heterogeneity and multiple overlapping transcriptional programs in differentiating T cell populations, this process has remained a challenge for systematic dissection in vivo. By using single-cell transcriptomics and computational analysis using a temporal mixtures of Gaussian processes model, termed GPfates, we reconstructed the developmental trajectories of Th1 and Tfh cells during blood-stage Plasmodium infection in mice. By tracking clonality using endogenous TCR sequences, we first demonstrated that Th1/Tfh bifurcation had occurred at both population and single-clone levels. Next, we identified genes whose expression was associated with Th1 or Tfh fates, and demonstrated a T-cell intrinsic role for Galectin-1 in supporting a Th1 differentiation. We also revealed the close molecular relationship between Th1 and IL-10-producing Tr1 cells in this infection. Th1 and Tfh fates emerged from a highly proliferative precursor that upregulated aerobic glycolysis and accelerated cell cycling as cytokine expression began. Dynamic gene expression of chemokine receptors around bifurcation predicted roles for cell-cell in driving Th1/Tfh fates. In particular, we found that precursor Th cells were coached towards a Th1 but not a Tfh fate by inflammatory monocytes. Thus, by integrating genomic and computational approaches, our study has provided two unique resources, a database www.PlasmoTH.org, which facilitates discovery of novel factors controlling Th1/Tfh fate commitment, and more generally, GPfates, a modelling framework for characterizing cell differentiation towards multiple fates

Testing for Fictive Learning in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

We conduct two experiments where subjects make a sequence of binary choices between risky and ambiguous binary lotteries. Risky lotteries are defined as lotteries where the relative frequencies of outcomes are known. Ambiguous lotteries are lotteries where the relative frequencies of outcomes are not known or may not exist. The trials in each experiment are divided into three phases: pre-treatment, treatment and post-treatment. The trials in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases are the same. As such, the trials before and after the treatment phase are dependent, clustered matched-pairs, that we analyze with the alternating logistic regression (ALR) package in SAS. In both experiments, we reveal to each subject the outcomes of her actual and counterfactual choices in the treatment phase. The treatments differ in the complexity of the random process used to generate the relative frequencies of the payoffs of the ambiguous lotteries. In the first experiment, the probabilities can be inferred from the converging sample averages of the observed actual and counterfactual outcomes of the ambiguous lotteries. In the second experiment the sample averages do not converge. If we define fictive learning in an experiment as statistically significant changes in the responses of subjects before and after the treatment phase of an experiment, then we expect fictive learning in the first experiment, but no fictive learning in the second experiment. The surprising finding in this paper is the presence of fictive learning in the second experiment. We attribute this counterintuitive result to apophenia: “seeing meaningful patterns in meaningless or random data.” A refinement of this result is the inference from a subsequent Chi-squared test, that the effects of fictive learning in the first experiment are significantly different from the effects of fictive learning in the second experiment

Old stones' song: Use-wear experiments and analysis of the Oldowan quartz and quartzite assemblage from Kanjera South (Kenya)

Evidence of Oldowan tools by w2.6 million years ago (Ma) may signal a major adaptive shift in hominin evolution. While tool-dependent butchery of large mammals was important by at least 2.0 Ma, the use of artifacts for tasks other than faunal processing has been difficult to diagnose. Here we report on use-wear analysis ofw2.0 Ma quartz and quartzite artifacts from Kanjera South, Kenya. A use-wear framework that links processing of specific materials and tool motions to their resultant use-wear patterns was developed. A blind test was then carried out to assess and improve the efficacy of this experimental use-wear framework, which was then applied to the analysis of 62 Oldowan artifacts from Kanjera South. Usewear on a total of 23 artifact edges was attributed to the processing of specific materials. Use-wear on seven edges (30%) was attributed to animal tissue processing,corroborating zooarchaeological evidence for butchery at the site. Use-wear on 16 edges (70%)was attributed to the processing of plant tissues, including wood, grit-covered plant tissues that we interpret asunderground storage organs (USOs), and stems of grass or sedges. These results expand our knowledge of the suite of behaviours carried out in the vicinity of Kanjera South to include the processing of materials that would be ‘invisible’ using standard archaeological methods. Wood cutting and scraping may represent the production and/or maintenance of wooden tools. Use-wear related to USO processing extends the archaeological evidence for hominin acquisition and consumption of this resource by over 1.5 Ma. Cutting of grasses, sedges or reeds may be related to a subsistence task (e.g., grass seed harvesting, cutting out papyrus culm for consumption) and/or a non-subsistence related task (e.g., production of ‘twine,’ simple carrying devices, or bedding). These results highlight the adaptive significance of lithic technology for hominins at Kanjera

Formative evaluation of the telecare fall prevention project for older veterans

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fall prevention interventions for community-dwelling older adults have been found to reduce falls in some research studies. However, wider implementation of fall prevention activities in routine care has yielded mixed results. We implemented a theory-driven program to improve care for falls at our Veterans Affairs healthcare facility. The first project arising from this program used a nurse advice telephone line to identify patients' risk factors for falls and to triage patients to appropriate services. Here we report the formative evaluation of this project.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To evaluate the intervention we: 1) interviewed patient and employee stakeholders, 2) reviewed participating patients' electronic health record data and 3) abstracted information from meeting minutes. We describe the implementation process, including whether the project was implemented according to plan; identify barriers and facilitators to implementation; and assess the incremental benefit to the quality of health care for fall prevention received by patients in the project. We also estimate the cost of developing the pilot project.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The project underwent multiple changes over its life span, including the addition of an option to mail patients educational materials about falls. During the project's lifespan, 113 patients were considered for inclusion and 35 participated. Patient and employee interviews suggested support for the project, but revealed that transportation to medical care was a major barrier in following up on fall risks identified by nurse telephone triage. Medical record review showed that the project enhanced usual medical care with respect to home safety counseling. We discontinued the program after 18 months due to staffing limitations and competing priorities. We estimated a cost of $9194 for meeting time to develop the project.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The project appeared feasible at its outset but could not be sustained past the first cycle of evaluation due to insufficient resources and a waning of local leadership support due to competing national priorities. Future projects will need both front-level staff commitment and prolonged high-level leadership involvement to thrive.</p