Housing Price Volatility and Downsizing in Later Life

In this paper, we modeled several types of housing transitions of the elderly in two countries -- Britain and the United States. One important form of these transitions involves downsizing of housing consumption, the importance of which among older households is still debated. This downsizing takes multiple forms, including reductions in the number of rooms per dwelling and the value of the home. There is also evidence that this downsizing is greater when house price volatility is greater and that American households try to escape housing price volatility by moving to places that are experience significantly less housing price volatility. Our comparative evidence in suggests that there is less evidence of downsizing in Britain. Our results indicate that housing consumption appears to decline with age in the US, even after controlling for the other demographic and work transitions associated with age that would normally produce such a decline. No such fall in housing consumption is found in Britain, largely because British households are much more likely to stay in their original residence.

Housing Mobility and Downsizing at Older Ages in Britain and the United States

This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder – people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain.downsizing, migration

House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder

This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder – people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain.downsizing, migration

The effects of training on the quantification of uncertainty

The use of intuitive heuristics has been put forward as an explanation for people’s assessment of probabilities (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972, 1973; Tversky & Kahneman, 1971, 1974). This phenomenon is seen as robust since “experts” (professional psychologists) make use of the same heuristics as “novices” (laypeople), despite having “had extensive training in statistics” (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974, p. 1130). However, replacing probability calculus with heuristics can lead to systematic errors and biases in probabilistic judgments. This study was designed to investigate the effects of statistical training on how people think about probabilistic judgments. Subjects’ knowledge base of probabilistic concepts, as defined by the number of correct answers on the Probability Knowledge Questionnaire, was assessed prior to receiving (or not) a brief training session. Immediately following training, subjects completed a Probability Test which consisted of ten Tversky and Kahneman (e.g., 1974) problems. The findings suggested that the training served to make a statistical approach to the probability test problems more salient. It was also observed that “novices”, with training, correctly solved a significantly higher proportion of test problems than did “experts” with no training. Finally, training served to increase subjects’ judgmental accuracy as measured by confidence ratings. The training session, which was designed to sensitize subjects to some basic probabilistic concepts, was successful in reducing the use of heuristics. Information on why people use heuristics and their robustness appears to point to a minimal probability knowledge base

Bryophytes and their distribution in the Blue Mountains region of New South Wales

The bryophytes (mosses, liverworts and hornworts) that occur in the Blue Mountains region of New South Wales (latitude 33˚–34˚ S, longitude 151˚–151˚40’ E) are listed and information is provided on their distribution in the region. Species lists are based on herbarium specimens and field collections. 348 bryophyte taxa have been recorded from 70 families, including 225 moss taxa (in 108 genera from 45 families), 120 liverwort taxa (in 51 genera from 24 families) and 3 hornwort taxa (in 3 genera from one family). The moss families with most taxa are the Pottiaceae (with 23 taxa in 13 genera), Bryaceae (with 15 taxa in 3 genera) and Fissidentaceae (with 13 taxa). The largest genera are Fissidens (13 taxa), Campylopus (9) and Macromitrium (8). The liverwort family with the most taxa is Lepidoziaceae, with 29 taxa in 10 genera. The largest liverwort genera are Frullania (11 taxa) and Riccardia (8). The species lists include collections from both bushland and urban areas. Natural features of the Blue Mountains, including topography, altitude, climate and vegetation appear to be important factors influencing the number of bryophyte species recorded from each location. The number of collections from particular locations has been considerably influenced by ease of access, particularly proximity to roads, public transport and railway stations. The species lists include many records from areas that were not accessible to the early collectors of the late 19th and early 20th centuries such as Wollemi National Park, Gardens of Stone National Park, Newnes Plateau and Kanangra-Boyd National Park

Up on the roof: a review of design, construction, and technology trends in vertical extensions

New spaces to accommodate growing urban populations should be created in a way that also reduces building lifecycle carbon emissions. In this context, the vertical extension (VE) has emerged as a novel building typology that can increase space in cities through the construction of additional floor area atop existing base buildings. This paper presents a review of 172 VE projects worldwide to provide an understanding of their design and construction trends, and to classify the technologies applied. Results show that VE construction has accelerated significantly over the past decade. Although most VEs consist of only small vertical additions, often one to two storeys, higher VEs can be built with innovative structural strategies and lightweight materials. Industrial buildings are often found to provide significant opportunities for VE due to their higher structural capacity. By comparing the characteristics and design of VEs, typologies based on architectural, structural, and construction technologies are presented