Quantifying economic benefits for rail infrastructure projects

Investment in rail infrastructure is necessary to maintain existing service and to cater for future growth in freight and passenger services. Many communities have realized the importance of investment in rail infrastructure projects and set up goals and visions to achieve economic development through investing in such projects. Due to limited funds available, communities have to select a single or very few projects from a variety of projects. It is very critical that right projects must be selected at the right time for a community to realize economic development. The limited methods for quantifying the economic benefits to the stakeholders often cause a problem in the selection process. Most of the conventional methods focus mainly on the economic impact of the project and ignore the metrics that convey the economic impacts in meaningful ways to the key stakeholders involved. This leads to uncertainty in the project selection and planning process and often leads to failure in achieving the goals of the project. This study aims to provide a mathematical framework that quantifies economic benefits of investment in rail infrastructure projects in meaningful ways to the key stakeholders through three different approaches, namely, Leontief-based approach, Bayesian approach and system dynamics approach. The Leontief-based approach is the easiest of all the three approaches provided that historical data is available. Bayesian approach is also very beneficial as it can be used by coupling small data with surveys and interviews. Also, system dynamics model is very useful to conduct qualitative analysis, but the quantitative analysis part can become very complex --Abstract, page iii

Quantifying restoration costs in the aftermath of an extreme event using system dynamics and dynamic mathematical modeling approaches

Extreme events such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and the like, lead to devastating effects that may render multiple supply chain critical infrastructure elements inoperable. The economic losses caused by extreme events continue well after the emergency response phase has ended and are a key factor in determining the best path for post-disaster restoration. It is essential to develop efficient restoration and disaster management strategies to ameliorate the losses from such events. This dissertation extends the existing knowledge base on disaster management and restoration through the creation of models and tools that identify the relationship between production losses and restoration costs. The first research contribution is a system dynamics inoperability model that determines inputs, outputs, and flows for roadway networks. This model can be used to identify the connectivity of road segments and better understand how inoperability contributes to economic consequences. The second contribution is an algorithm that integrates critical infrastructure data derived from bottom-up cost estimation technique as part of an object-oriented software tool that can be used to determine the impact of system disruptions. The third contribution is a dynamic mathematical model that establishes a framework to estimate post-disaster restoration costs from a whole system perspective. Engineering managers, city planners, and policy makers can use the methodologies developed in this research to develop effective disaster planning schemas and to prioritize post-disaster restoration operations --Abstract, page iv

Quantifying Economic Benefits for Rail Infrastructure Projects

This project identifies metrics for measuring the benefit of rail infrastructure projects for key stakeholders. It is important that stakeholders with an interest in community economic development play an active role in the development of the rail network. Economic development activities in both rural and urban settings are essential if a nation is to realize growth and prosperity. Many communities have developed goals and visions to establish an economic development program, but they often fail to achieve their goals due to uncertainties during the project selection and planning process. Communities often select a project from a vast pool of ideas with only limited capital available for investment. Selecting the right project at the right time becomes imperative for economic and community development. This process is significantly hampered by limited methods for quantifying the economic benefit to key stakeholders. Four methodologies are used in this project to determine the most useful tools for quantifying benefit given the availability of data, relevant expertise, and other information

Supply Chain Infrastructure Restoration Calculator Software Tool -- Developer Guide and User Manual

This report describes a software tool that calculates costs associated with the reconstruction of supply chain interdependent critical infrastructure in the advent of a catastrophic failure by either outside forces (extreme events) or internal forces (fatigue). This tool fills a gap between search and recover strategies of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (or FEMA) and construction techniques under full recovery. In addition to overall construction costs, the tool calculates reconstruction needs in terms of personnel and their required support. From these estimates, total costs (or the cost of each element to be restored) can be calculated. Estimates are based upon historic reconstruction data, although decision managers do have the choice of entering their own input data to tailor the results to a local area

Bottom-Up Resource and Cost Estimation for Restoration of Supply Chain Interdependent Critical Infrastructure

Extreme events can damage or destroy multiple supply chain interdependent critical infrastructures elements. Although much research has focused on developing efficient restoration strategies, and/or making critical infrastructures more resilient, practitioners need tools to determine resources necessary to restore such damage. The methodology developed in this research estimates both the resources required to support the repair personnel, and restore different infrastructure elements. This method uses a dynamic mathematical model that establishes a framework to estimate post-disaster restoration costs from a whole system perspective. The model is validated with a case study of the resources required to restore multiple infrastructures that were damaged by the EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri on May 22, 2011. Engineering managers, city planners, and policy makers can use the methodologies developed in this research to develop effective disaster planning schemas and to prioritize post-disaster restoration operations

Improving the Efficiency of Vital Supply Distribution after an Extreme Event

It is essential to develop efficient transportation strategies for the distribution of vital supplies in the aftermath of wide-scale extreme events. While most major cities have importation and distribution plans in place for their communities, the implementation efficacy of these plans is diminished once the transportation network is disrupted following a disaster. This research develops a multi-objective decision model that minimizes cost while maximizing proximity. GIS-style visualization tools are used to create planning scenarios. The methodology also integrates elements from complexity science to control emergent behaviors and cascade failures resulting from interdependent systems failures