Evaluation of Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) as yield predictor of Panicum virgatum and Miscanthus x giganteus in several US environments

Simulation models for perennial energy crops such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus) can be useful tools to design management strategies for biomass productivity improvement in US environments. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a biophysical model with the potential to simulate the growth of perennial crops. APSIM crop modules do not exist for switchgrass and Miscanthus, however, re‐parameterization of existing APSIM modules could be used to simulate the growth of these perennials. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of APSIM to predict the dry matter (DM) yield of switchgrass and Miscanthus at several US locations. The Lucerne (for switchgrass) and Sugarcane (for Miscanthus) APSIM modules were calibrated using data from four locations in Indiana. A sensitivity analysis informed the relative impact of changes in plant and soil parameters of APSIM Lucerne and APSIM Sugarcane modules. An independent dataset of switchgrass and Miscanthus DM yields from several US environments was used to validate these re‐parameterized APSIM modules. The re‐parameterized modules simulated DM yields of switchgrass [0.95 for CCC (concordance correlation coefficient) and 0 for SB (bias of the simulation from the measurement)] and Miscanthus (0.65 and 0% for CCC and SB, respectively) accurately at most locations with the exception of switchgrass at southern US sites (0.01 for CCC and 2% for SB). Therefore, the APSIM model is a promising tool for simulating DM yields for switchgrass and Miscanthus while accounting for environmental variability. Given our study was strictly based on APSIM calibrations at Indiana locations, additional research using more extensive calibration data may enhance APSIM robustness.Fil: Ojeda, Jonathan Jesus. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; ArgentinaFil: Volenec, Jeffrey J.. Purdue University; Estados UnidosFil: Brouder, Sylvie M.. Purdue University; Estados UnidosFil: Caviglia, Octavio Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Ríos. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná; ArgentinaFil: Agnusdei, Mónica G.. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires Sur. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentin

Farm diversification strategies, dietary diversity and farm size: results from a cross-country sample in South and Southeast Asia

South and Southeast Asia host almost half of the world's undernourished people. Food and agricultural systems in these regions are highly dependent on the production and consumption of staple cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. More diverse farming systems can potentially improve rural people's nutrition, while reducing the environmental impact of agriculture. Yet, it remains uncertain whether farm diversification is always the most suitable and viable strategy for all types of smallholder farms. We use generalised linear regression models to analyse the farm diversification strategies of 4772 rural households in Cambodia, India, Lao PDR and Vietnam. Our analysis is twofold and focuses first on drivers of farm diversification, and second, on the impacts of farm diversification and other livelihood strategies on dietary diversity. We find that (1) farm diversification is significantly influenced by environmental and climate variables, including rainfall patterns, as well as household and farm characteristics such as farm size and education level; and (2) farm diversification, market orientation and off-farm income generation are all strategies that can improve household and individual dietary diversity. However, their relative effects resulted influenced by farm size. Specifically, the positive effect of farm diversification on dietary diversity was larger for smaller farms, while it decreased for farms of larger size that may improve their diet more by increasing their engagement in off-farm activities and markets. These findings highlight that characteristics such as farm size can represent substantial determinants in production and consumption decisions, suggesting the importance of understanding and considering the type of farm and the situational context of analysis when targeting interventions for improving smallholder farm livelihoods

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.)

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Vertical distribution of root biomass and soil carbon stocks in forage cropping systems

Background and aims: Forage cropping systems may differentially affect the vertical distribution of roots and soil organic C stock (C-OM). In annual crops sequences (ACS) and perennial pastures (PP), we assessed the association between root biomass, C-OM, C in mineral-associated organic matter (C-MAOM), and C in particulate organic matter (C-POM) and its vertical distribution. Methods: Root biomass, C-OM, C-MAOM and C-POM were measured in a Petrocalcic Argiudol at five soil depths up to 100 cm during two years in the south-eastern Pampas of Argentina. The field experiment comprised 28 plots including five perennial pastures and two annual crop sequences. Associations between variables were assessed by regression analysis and non-linear models. Results: Overall, ACS and PP had similar cumulative root biomass. Both, root biomass and soil C stocks exponentially decreased with soil depth. Soil C stocks associated to root biomass tended to stabilize over a threshold value of root biomass for C-MAOM and C-OM. C-POM tended to stabilize over a threshold value only in treatments that included tall fescue. Conclusions: Our results highlights the key role of roots to improve soil C stocks through the design of forage crop rotations that include crops able to increase root inputs to the soil, such as tall fescue.Fil: Ojeda, Jonathan Jesus. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Caviglia, Octavio Pedro. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Ríos. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Agnusdei, Mónica Graciela. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires Sur. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentin

Modelling inter-annual variation in dry matter yield and precipitation use efficiency of perennial pastures and annual forage crops sequences

In livestock systems of the Argentinean Pampas, its forage production stability relies on the integration of two landcovers, annual forage crop sequences and perennial pastures. Despite the key role that these forage cropping systems have on current milk and beef production, it is unclear how year-by-year variability of precipitation affect forage dry matter (DM) yield and precipitation use efficiency (PUE, i.e. the quotient between forage DM yield and precipitation). The aims of this study were to analyze the impact (i) of year-by-year precipitation variability on DM yield and PUE of oats-maize (Avena sativa L. - Zea mays L.) double-crop and alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and (ii) of cumulative precipitation during the critical period of maize on DM yield and PUE of oats-maize double-crop. We used a modelling approach to estimate DM yield and PUE of oats-maize (sequence) and alfalfa in five locations of the Argentinean Pampas, which differed in annual precipitation (AP) and variability of it. Coefficient of variation (CV) was used as the main statistical variable to compare the variability of AP (CVAP), DM yield (CVDM), and PUE (CVPUE). Mean DM yield of both landcovers was higher in locations with high AP (>800 mm) than with low AP (800 mm). Our results provided valuable knowledge for decision making in livestock systems of this region through the development of spatial and temporal models between DM yield and AP. In a broader sense, they also showed that shifts from perennial to seasonal forage covers increased yields but also its inter-annual variability, posing a risk for farmers.Fil: Ojeda, Jonathan Jesus. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos; Argentina. University of Tasmania; Australia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Caviglia, Octavio Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Irisarri, Jorge Gonzalo Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; ArgentinaFil: Agnusdei, Mónica Graciela. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; Argentin

Evaluation of Agricultural Production Systems Simulator as yield predictor of Panicum virgatum and Miscanthus x giganteus in several US environments

Simulation models for perennial energy crops such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus) can be useful tools to design management strategies for biomass productivity improvement in US environments. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a biophysical model with the potential to simulate the growth of perennial crops. APSIM crop modules do not exist for switchgrass and Miscanthus, however, re-parameterization of existing APSIM modules could be used to simulate the growth of these perennials. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of APSIM to predict the dry matter (DM) yield of switchgrass and Miscanthus at several US locations. The Lucerne (for switchgrass) and Sugarcane (for Miscanthus) APSIM modules were calibrated using data from four locations in Indiana. A sensitivity analysis informed the relative impact of changes in plant and soil parameters of APSIM Lucerne and APSIM Sugarcane modules. An independent dataset of switchgrass and Miscanthus DM yields from several US environments was used to validate these re-parameterized APSIM modules. The re-parameterized modules simulated DM yields of switchgrass [0.95 for CCC (concordance correlation coefficient) and 0 for SB (bias of the simulation from the measurement)] and Miscanthus (0.65 and 0% for CCC and SB, respectively) accurately at most locations with the exception of switchgrass at southern US sites (0.01 for CCC and 2% for SB). Therefore, the APSIM model is a promising tool for simulating DM yields for switchgrass and Miscanthus while accounting for environmental variability. Given our study was strictly based on APSIM calibrations at Indiana locations, additional research using more extensive calibration data may enhance APSIM robustness.EEA ParanáFil: Ojeda, Jonathan Jesus. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Volenec, Jeffrey J. Purdue University. Department of Agronomy; Estados UnidosFil: Brouder, Sylvie M. Purdue University. Department of Agronomy; Estados UnidosFil: Caviglia, Octavio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Paraná. Grupo Ecología Forestal; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; ArgentinaFil: Agnusdei, Monica Graciela. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentin

Modelling stover and grain yields, and subsurface artificial drainage from long-term corn rotations using APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a key tool to identify agricultural management practices seeking to simultaneously optimize agronomic productivity and input use efficiencies. The aims of this study were to validate APSIM for prediction of stover and grain yield of corn in four contrasting soils with varied N fertilizer applications (156–269 kg N ha−1) and to predict timing and volume from artificial subsurface drains in continuous corn and corn-soybean rotations in a silty clay loam soil at West Lafayette, IN. The APSIM validation was carried-out using a long-term dataset of corn stover and grain yields from the North Central Region of IN. The CCC (Concordance Correlation Coefficient) and SB (Simulation Bias) were used to statistically evaluate the model performance. The CCC integrates precision through Pearson’s correlation coefficient and accuracy by bias, and SB indicates the bias of the simulation from the measurement. The model demonstrated very good (CCC = 0.96; SB = 0%) and satisfactory (CCC = 0.85; SB = 2%) ability to simulate stover and grain yield, respectively. Grain yield was better predicted in continuous corn (CCC = 0.73–0.91; SB = 19–21%) than in corn-soybean rotations (CCC = 0.56–0.63; SB = 17–18%), while stover yield was well predicted in both crop rotations (CCC = 0.85–0.98; SB = 1–17%). The model demonstrated acceptable ability to simulate annual subsurface drainage in both rotations (CCC = 0.63–0.75; SB = 2–37%) with accuracy being lower in the continuous corn system than in corn-soybean rotation system (CCC = 0.61-0.63; SB = 9–12%). Daily subsurface drainage events were well predicted by APSIM during late spring and summer when crop water use was high, but under-predicted during fall, winter and early spring when evapotranspiration was low. Occasional flow events occurring in summer when soils were not saturated were not predicted by APSIM and may represent preferential flow paths currently not represented in the model. APSIM is a promising tool for simulating yield and water losses for corn-based cropping systems in north central Indiana US.Fil: Ojeda, Jonathan Jesus. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Volenec, Jeffrey J.. Purdue University; Estados UnidosFil: Brouder, Sylvie M.. Purdue University; Estados UnidosFil: Caviglia, Octavio Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Agnusdei, Mónica G.. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; Argentin