Employment and the functioning of the labour market in Serbia

This paper deals with the analysis of the functioning of the labour market in Serbia. The overall situation in the Serbian labour market is deteriorating. However, if the two sub-periods are observed, before and after the recent economic crisis, it can be noticed that some improvements occurred immediately before the crisis. The first improvement that came about was the unemployment decline, and after that the level of employment increased. This in particular affected women, which further led to the narrowing of the employment gender gap. Unfortunately, these improvements were only shortlived. During the post crisis period the situation aggravated, as manifested by a convergence between the employment and unemployment rates of women, whereas the economic activity of women dropped to only half of the female workforce. Similar patterns are also characteristic of both young and older workers. The rates of employment of these two subsamples of the workforce have been at the lowest levels achieved in the last couple of years in Serbia. The increasing levels of unemployment disturb the sectoral distribution of employment. This, jointly with the skill and occupational mismatches, contributes to the further deepening of the structural unemployment. All of these indicate an increasing malfunctioning of the Serbian labour market

Teorijski pristup aktivnim merama tržišta rada i praksa EU

Teorijski posmatrano, aktivne mere, kao instrument politike tržišta rada, uvedene su sa ciljem da se unapredi verovatnoća zapošljavanja učesnika na tržištu rada, bilo kratkoročno ili dugoročno, a takođe i da se podstakne tražnja za radom. U zavisnosti od toga, aktivne mere dobijaju različite modalitete od privremenog zapošljavanja kroz javne radove i direktnu finansijsku podršku za otvaranje novih radnih mesta do različitih vrsta dodatnog obrazovanja i obuka. Šire posmatrano, uz aktivne mere, deo aktivne politike tržišta rada su i usluge zapošljavanja koje doprinose promociji efikasnosti tržišta rada i spajanju ponude i tražnje. Aktivne mere predstavljaju način da se svetske ekonomije nose sa strukturnom nezaposlenošću ili sa nezaposlenošću koja se javlja usled promena poslovnih ciklusa ili ekonomskih kriza. Sam naziv ovih mera odvaja ih od pasivnih mera na tržištu rada koje korisnicima omogućuju primanje novčanih naknada, u paketima koji su deo mreže socijalne podrške nezaposlenim licima, ili prevremeno penzionisanje. U ovom radu je predstavljena evolucija mera aktivne politike tržišta rada, počevši od 1960ih godina, kada su one uvedene na tržišta rada nekih evropskih zemalja, do današnjih dana.U radu su takođe predstavljena i iskustva Srbije sa uvođenjem ovog oblika podrške učesnicima na tržištu rada. Srbija je tek u prvoj dekadi 21. stoljeća posvetila veću pažnju aktivnom učešću na tržištu rada, što koincidira sa intenziviranjem procesa transformacije nacionalne ekonomije

Youth employment policies in Serbia: framework, interventions, results

The aim of this article is to focus on the implementation of youth em‐ ployment policies within the current institutional framework and to analyse the short‐term results of interventions created in order to increase prospects of youth in the labour market of Serbia. There is robust empirical evidence about youth in Serbia as a disadvantaged group in the labour market. Youth unemployment is almost three times higher relative to adult unemployment. In particular, low‐ educated young people and residents of rural areas have less chance to achieve requirements of the modern labour market. The employment prospects of young people in the European Union member countries (especially in EU‐15) are much better than prospects of their counterparts in Serbia. The framework for the im‐ plementation of youth employment policies in Serbia allows to the authorities to interfere in the labour market by using public interventions. A set of instruments and activities are at disposal, but in order to avoid overlapping among competenc‐ es of different institutions, their implementation needs careful coordination and planning. The youths are overrepresented in labour market policy measures aimed at providing services for youth activation, such as searching for jobs in job clubs, trainings for active job searching, carrier guidance and counselling as well as in the especially designed apprenticeship program for fighting against youth unem‐ ployment entitled “First Chance”. In all other interventions, even including the pro‐ grams for entrepreneurship development, the number of young people is un‐ derrepresented. Due to the omitted continuous evaluation results it is not clear to what extent labour market policy measures accurately contribute to the improve‐ ment of youth employment prospects in the labour market of Serbia

Training Intentions and Skills Needs in the Private Sector Companies in Serbia

This paper provides an analysis of the private sector companies’ training intentions and an assessment of the occupational and skills needs in the Serbian labour market. A substantial part of the analysis was carried out using the Employers Survey data as well as data from other relevant sources. The main results of this analysis indicated the net employment growth. A rising demand was primarily revealed in the occupational classes encompassing services, craft and related trade workers, followed by professionals and skilled blue colour workers ranked as the second and third ones. A significant deficit was identified in the group of occupation-specific skills and wider competencies. The companies’ training intentions signalled to the permanent need for the enhancement of present and future employees’ skills. Some shortcomings of the available data sources are emphasized, and directions for future research are proposed

Proizvodnja i zaposlenost u industriji Srbije: osvrt na rezultate i perspektive

U ovom radu je predstavljena analiza doprinosa industrijskih sektora i stvaranju ukupne proizvodnje i ukupnoj zaposlenosti tokom perioda od 2001. do 2010. godine koji je obeležio dekadu tranzicionih reformi u Srbiji. Korišćene su godišnje vremenske serije podataka Republičkog zavoda za statistiku Srbije. Metodološki pristup na kojem se zasniva analiza u ovom radu se sastoji u korišćenju dve grupe statističkih metoda. Prva grupa metoda polazi od analize izabranih serija podataka kroz percentile distribucije, a druga grupa metoda koristi mere disperzije i nejednakosti. Korišćenjem ovih metoda želelo se najpre ukazati na to da su sektori, kojima su svojstvene najveće promene, upravo oni u kojima je zabeležena najveća disperzija, a zatim i na koncentraciju sektora industrije u određenim percentilima distribucije analiziranih serija podataka. Osnovni zaključci analize su da se u posmatranom periodu izdvajaju sedam sektora prerađivačke industrije, sektor eksploatacije uglja i sektor snabdevanja električnom energijom, gasom, parom i klimatizacija, kao sektori sa rastućim doprinosom stvaranju ukupne bruto dodate vrednosti u industriji. Međutim, tek jedan sektor prerađivačke industrije, koji pripada grupi visoko-tehnološki intenzivnih sektora, se 2010. godine nalazio u grupi identifikovanih rastućih sektora industrije. Stoga se nameće opšti zaključak da se prerađivačka industrija Srbije nalazi na veoma niskom stepenu tehnološkog razvoja. Naime, visokotehnološki i srednje-visoko-tehnološki razvijeni sektori prerađivačke industrije učestvuju sa oko ¼ u stvaranju ukupne bruto dodate vrednosti, dok je njihov udeo u ukupnoj zaposlenosti u prerađivačkoj industriji oko 27%. Analiza je otkrila i to da se značaj grupa sektora prerađivačke industrije, u smislu doprinosa ukupnoj bruto dodatoj vrednosti, brže pomera iz grupe sektora nisko-tehnološki razvijenih ka srednje-nisko-tehnološki razvijenim sektorima, nego iz grupe srednje-visokotehnološki razvijenih ka visoko-tehnološki razvijenim sektorima prerađivačke industrije. I na kraju, zaključak je da se doprinos pojedinih sektora ukupnoj bruto dodatoj vrednosti industrije znatno brže menjao, kao i da se povećavala nejednakost među sektorima, naročito prerađivačke industrije, dok se struktura zaposlenosti po sektorima industrije, uprkos oštrom padu broja zaposlenih, menjala sporije i ujednačenije

Stanje i pravci rešavanja problema strukturne nezaposlenosti u Srbiji

Na tržištu rada Srbije je prisutan trend smanjenja strukturne nezaposlenosti. Međutim, to nije rezultat istinskog popunjavanja slobodnih poslova, tj. bolje usklađenosti između ponude i tražnje na tržištu rada, već bržeg pada broja slobodnih poslova od rasta nezaposlenosti. Stoga, tek kada se usklade dinamika porasta broja slobodnih poslova i aktivnosti stanovništva radnog uzrasta, a uz smanjenje ukupne nezaposlenosti, može da se očekuje i nepokolebljivi pad strukturne nezaposlenosti. Takođe, u posebnom fokusu istraživanja su bile tri ciljne grupe, mladi, žene i stariji. Osnovne tendencije koje su uočene u analiziranom periodu jesu: povećanje dugoročne nezaposlenosti, produbljivanje rodnih razlika, rast nezaposlenosti mladih, i porast aktivnosti starijeg stanovništva, ali bez značajnijeg uticaja na rast zaposlenosti. Ove tendencije nisu ohrabrujuće, jer bi u predstojećem periodu mogle da utiču na porast strukturne nezaposlenosti. Pravovremene mere aktivne politike zapošljavanja, u sadejstvu sa činiocima koji utiču na bržu dinamiku kreiranja novih poslova, mogle bi konačno da utiču na smirivanje strukturnih pritisaka na tržištu rada

Skills development and sustainable employment during transition in Serbia

The objective of this paper is to assess the process of matching the skills available by the workforce and the skills demanded by the employers in the Serbian labour market. A skill mismatch problem is mainly caused by the structural unemployment. The main causes of skills mismatches are the unfavourable structure of the workforce and slow adjustment capacities of the education and training institutions, on the supply side. On the demand side, skills mismatches arise due to inability of the employers to develop more complex tasks and the low level of the companies’ training intentions. Unfavourable structure of skills may affect both job candidates, policy makers, and the employers in a way that it prolongs the time spent in job searching, induces the increase in social expenditures, and reduces business productivity. In this paper employability skills are analysed in the context of sustainable employment and it is concluded that the Serbian labour market generates substantial skills gaps through all levels of education

How Structural Changes Affect Enterprises’ Expectations about Employment in Serbia?

This article examines enterprises’ responses to structural changes in the economy of Serbia caused by both transitional changes and the global economic crisis, as well as by influences of other accompanying factors. An assessment of the enterprises’ expectations in terms of short-term dynamics of employment needs is provided. Enterprises use different coping strategies, but their potentials for growth and development are particularly tight. The multinomial logit econometric models are employed in order to estimate outcomes in the enterprises’ expectations with respect to changes in job flows. The coefficient estimate of the variable that measures the amount of engaged labour at the level of an average enterprise in Serbia shows a statistically significant influence that this variable has on the enterprises’ decisions about the fluctuations of workers. Taking the decision that would not result in changes in the number of employees as a baseline alternative, the first rational choice of the employers would be to dismiss old or to employ new workers if they expect unfavourable, i.e. favourable, trends, respectively. The estimated multinomial logit model can be used for predictions of employers’ decisions about expected in(out)flows of workers. However, a parsimonious multinomial model was estimated, implying that more accurate predictions would be obtained by using the model with more explanatory variables. For the purpose of the analysis presented in this article, a micro set of the survey data provided by the Public Employment Service of Serbia is used. The survey, with enterprises as primary sample units, was carried out in 2011

Factors with Significant Impact on Individual Employment Plans of Enterprises: A short-term Assessment Based on Data of the Serbian Economy

The aim of this paper is to assess the short-term impact of the set of business environment factors on individual employment plans of Serbian enterprises. In order to confirm the initial statements, two independent data sets were used. The conclusions that are drawn from the enterprises’ opinions show common framework of the firms’ behaviour in the context of the global crisis. The most important factors of the firms’ responses to the crisis are available capital, management of the resources and financial sources. Comparisons of the results obtained from two different data sources confirm that the quality of the available labour force is an important factor, but does not represent a major obstacle to growth of employment. Within the pool of factors, the most important ones are instability of market conditions, expensive inputs of production and other market risks

Job creation and employment in a time of crisis

Serbian economy has been severely affected by the latest global economic crisis. After salient slowdown in the last quarter of 2008, the national economy went into recession that was followed by gradual reductions in GDP and employment, transient fall in the rate of inflation and sustained rise in unemployment. Despite the fact that the corporate sector has even slightly enlarged during the observed period, it is evident that this sector has experienced significant contractions too. These contractions are evident due to permanent decline in firm size, owing to the negative employment growth, and due to deterioration in key business performance indicators. The dynamic of the growing number of enterprises was driven by micro and to some extent by small firms, which have narrow potentials for further growth of employment without significant enlargement of the number of enterprises. The Serbian economy is a vulnerable transition economy that strongly reacts to shocks. In regular conditions, before the global economic crisis, expansion of the corporate sector was not sufficient to absorb majority of workers. Following the background facts, in this chapter we have examined potentials for job creation and destruction by size of enterprises and main sectors of economic activity. For this purpose we have used the nationally representative survey of firm-level data collected during May 2011. We have found that Serbian economy creates 7.6% of new jobs per year. Almost the same percentage of jobs has been destroyed, meaning that job destruction in contracting firms contributes in almost the same proportion to the excess job reallocation as creation of new jobs in expanding firms