The Valuation and Market Rationality of Internet Stock Prices

This paper provides an analysis of some existing as well as new evidence of the relation between market prices and fundamentals in the internet sector over the period January 1998 to February 2000. Appealing to results across a broad class of outcomes, we demonstrate a strong, circumstantial case against market rationality In particular, we investigate (i) the level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to information-based events, and (iii) the volatility of internet prices. We review several potential explanations of these phenomena, including one based on heterogenous beliefs across investors who are subject to short sales constraints. We provide a discussion of the empirical evidence supporting this latter explanation

Leverage, Investment, and Firm Growth

We show that there is a negative relation between leverage and future growth at the firm level and, for diversified firms, at the segment level. Further, this negative relation between leverage and growth holds for firms with low Tobin's q, but not for high-q firms or firms in high-q industries. Therefore, leverage does not reduce growth for firms known to have good investment opportunities, but is negatively related to growth for firms whose growth opportunities are either not recognized by the capital markets or are not sufficiently valuable to overcome the effects of their debt overhang.

Limited Arbitrage and Short Sales Restrictions: Evidence from the Options Markets

In this paper, we investigate empirically the well-known put-call parity no-arbitrage relation in the presence of short sale restrictions. We use a new and comprehensive sample of options on individual stocks in combination with a measure of the cost and difficulty of short selling, specifically the spread between the rate a short-seller earns on the proceeds from the sale relative to the standard rate (the rebate rate spread). We find that violations of put-call parity are asymmetric in the direction of short sales constraints, their magnitudes are strongly related to the rebate rate spread, and they are maintained even in the presence of transactions costs both in the options and equity lending market. These violations appear to be related to both the maturity of the option and the level of valuations in the stock market, consistent with a behavioral finance theory that relies on over-optimistic investors in the stock market and segmentation between the stock and options markets. Moreover, the extent of violations of put-call parity and the rebate rate spread for individual stocks are significant predictors of future stock returns. For example, cumulative abnormal returns, net of borrowing costs, over a 2«-year sample period can exceed 65%.

DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

This paper provides one potential explanation for the rise, persistence and eventual fall of internet stock prices. Specifically, we appeal to a model of heterogenous agents with varying degrees of beliefs about asset payoffs who are subject to short sales constraints. In this framework, it is possible that “optimistic” investors overwhelm “pessimistic” ones, leading to prices not reflecting fundamental values about cash flows summarized by aggregate beliefs. Empirical support for this explanation is provided by exploring the behavior of internet stock prices during the period January 1998 to November 2000. In particular, we document four important elements to our story: (i) the high level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to a shift towards potentially optimistic investors, (iii) empirical results consistent with shorting being at its maximum possible level for internet stocks, and (iv) the eventual fall, or bubble bursting, of internet stocks being tied to the increase in the number of sellers to the market via expiration of lockup agreements

DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

This paper provides one potential explanation for the rise, persistence and eventual fall of internet stock prices. Specifically, we appeal to a model of heterogenous agents with varying degrees of beliefs about asset payoffs who are subject to short sales constraints. In this framework, it is possible that “optimistic” investors overwhelm “pessimistic” ones, leading to prices not reflecting fundamental values about cash flows summarized by aggregate beliefs. Empirical support for this explanation is provided by exploring the behavior of internet stock prices during the period January 1998 to November 2000. In particular, we document four important elements to our story: (i) the high level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to a shift towards potentially optimistic investors, (iii) empirical results consistent with shorting being at its maximum possible level for internet stocks, and (iv) the eventual fall, or bubble bursting, of internet stocks being tied to the increase in the number of sellers to the market via expiration of lockup agreements

What’s In It For Me? CEOs Whose Firms Are Acquired

We study benefits received by target company CEOs in completed mergers and acquisitions. These executives obtain wealth increases with a median of $4 to$5 million and a mean of $8 to$11 million, roughly in line with the permanent income streams that they sacrifice. CEOs receive lower financial gains from those transactions in which they become executives of the buyer, suggesting that tradeoffs exist between the financial and career-related benefits they extract. We find very high rates of turnover both at the time of the merger and, for those executives who stay, for several years post-merger. Regression estimates suggest that target shareholders receive lower acquisition premia in transactions that involve extraordinary personal treatment of the CEO

DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

This paper provides one potential explanation for the rise, persistence and eventual fall of internet stock prices. Specifically, we appeal to a model of heterogenous agents with varying degrees of beliefs about asset payoffs who are subject to short sales constraints. In this framework, it is possible that “optimistic” investors overwhelm “pessimistic” ones, leading to prices not reflecting fundamental values about cash flows summarized by aggregate beliefs. Empirical support for this explanation is provided by exploring the behavior of internet stock prices during the period January 1998 to November 2000. In particular, we document four important elements to our story: (i) the high level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to a shift towards potentially optimistic investors, (iii) empirical results consistent with shorting being at its maximum possible level for internet stocks, and (iv) the eventual fall, or bubble bursting, of internet stocks being tied to the increase in the number of sellers to the market via expiration of lockup agreements