Atrial fibrillation and risks of cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and death: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To quantify the association between atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and death. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline and Embase. Eligibility criteria: Cohort studies examining the association between atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and death. Two reviewers independently extracted study characteristics and the relative risk of outcomes associated with atrial fibrillation: specifically, all cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, major cardiovascular events, any stroke, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, ischaemic heart disease, sudden cardiac death, congestive heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and peripheral arterial disease. Estimates were pooled with inverse variance weighted random effects meta-analysis. Results: 104 eligible cohort studies involving 9 686 513 participants (587 867 with atrial fibrillation) were identified. Atrial fibrillation was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality (relative risk 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.39 to 1.54), cardiovascular mortality (2.03, 1.79 to 2.30), major cardiovascular events (1.96, 1.53 to 2.51), stroke (2.42, 2.17 to 2.71), ischaemic stroke (2.33, 1.84 to 2.94), ischaemic heart disease (1.61, 1.38 to 1.87), sudden cardiac death (1.88, 1.36 to 2.60), heart failure (4.99, 3.04 to 8.22), chronic kidney disease (1.64, 1.41 to 1.91), and peripheral arterial disease (1.31, 1.19 to 1.45) but not haemorrhagic stroke (2.00, 0.67 to 5.96). Among the outcomes examined, the highest absolute risk increase was for heart failure. Associations between atrial fibrillation and included outcomes were broadly consistent across subgroups and in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of death and an increased risk of cardiovascular and renal disease. Interventions aimed at reducing outcomes beyond stroke are warranted in patients with atrial fibrillation

Integrated Care: A Person-Centered and Population Health Strategy for the COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery and Beyond

The COVID-19 pandemic has mandated a re-imagination of how healthcare is administered and delivered, with a view towards focusing on person-centred care and advancing population health while increasing capacity, access and equity in the healthcare system. These goals can be achieved through healthcare integration. In 2019, the University Health Network (UHN), a consortium of four quaternary care hospitals in Ontario, Canada, established the first stage of a pilot program to increase healthcare integration at the institutional level and vertically with other primary, secondary and tertiary institutions in the Ontario healthcare system. Implementation of the program was accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic and demonstrated how healthcare integration improves person-centred care and population health; therefore serving as the foundation for a health system response for the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond

Association between trial registration and positive study findings: cross sectional study (Epidemiological Study of Randomized Trials—ESORT)

Objective To assess whether randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that were registered were less likely to report positive study findings compared with RCTs that were not registered and whether the association varied by funding source. Design Cross sectional study. Study sample All primary RCTs published in December 2012 and indexed in PubMed by November 2013. Trial registration was determined based on the report of a trial registration number in published RCTs or the identification of the trial in a search of trial registries. Trials were separated into prospectively and retrospectively registered studies. Main outcome measure Association between trial registration and positive study findings. Results 1122 eligible RCTs were identified, of which 593 (52.9%) were registered and 529 (47.1%) were not registered. Overall, registration was marginally associated with positive study findings (adjusted risk ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.98), even with stratification as prospectively and retrospectively registered trials (0.87, 0.74 to 1.03 and 0.88, 0.78 to 1.00, respectively). The interaction term between overall registration and funding source was marginally statistically significant and relative risk estimates were imprecise (0.75, 0.63 to 0.89 for non-industry funded and 1.03, 0.79 to 1.36 for industry funded, P interaction=0.046). Furthermore, a statistically significant interaction was not maintained in sensitivity analyses. Within each stratum of funding source, relative risk estimates were also imprecise for the association between positive study findings and prospective and retrospective registration. Conclusion Among published RCTs, there was little evidence of a difference in positive study findings between registered and non-registered clinical trials, even with stratification by timing of registration. Relative risk estimates were imprecise in subgroups of non-industry and industry funded trials

Effectiveness of Systematic Echocardiographic Screening for Rheumatic Heart Disease in Nepalese Schoolchildren: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance Echocardiographic screening allows for early detection of subclinical stages of rheumatic heart disease among children in endemic regions. Objective To investigate the effectiveness of systematic echocardiographic screening in combination with secondary antibiotic prophylaxis on the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease. Design, Setting, and Participants This cluster randomized clinical trial included students 9 to 16 years of age attending public and private schools in urban and rural areas of the Sunsari district in Nepal that had been randomly selected on November 17, 2012. Echocardiographic follow-up was performed between January 7, 2016, and January 3, 2019. Interventions In the experimental group, children underwent systematic echocardiographic screening followed by secondary antibiotic prophylaxis in case they had echocardiographic evidence of latent rheumatic heart disease. In the control group, children underwent no echocardiographic screening. Main Outcomes and Measures Prevalence of the composite of definite or borderline rheumatic heart disease according to the World Heart Federation criteria in experimental and control schools as assessed 4 years after intervention. Results A total of 35 schools were randomized to the experimental group (n = 19) or the control group (n = 16). After a median of 4.3 years (interquartile range [IQR], 4.0-4.5 years), 17 of 19 schools in the experimental group (2648 children; median age at follow-up, 12.1 years; IQR, 10.3-12.5 years; 1308 [49.4%] male) and 15 of 16 schools in the control group (1325 children; median age at follow-up, 10.6 years; IQR, 10.0-12.5 years; 682 [51.5%] male) underwent echocardiographic follow-up. The prevalence of definite or borderline rheumatic heart disease was 10.8 per 1000 children (95% CI, 4.7-24.7) in the control group and 3.8 per 1000 children (95% CI, 1.5-9.8) in the experimental group (odds ratio, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.11-1.07; P = .06). The prevalence in the experimental group at baseline had been 12.9 per 1000 children (95% CI, 9.2-18.1). In the experimental group, the odds ratio of definite or borderline rheumatic heart disease at follow-up vs baseline was 0.29 (95% CI, 0.13-0.65; P = .008). Conclusions and Relevance School-based echocardiographic screening in combination with secondary antibiotic prophylaxis in children with evidence of latent rheumatic heart disease may be an effective strategy to reduce the prevalence of definite or borderline rheumatic heart disease in endemic regions. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01550068

Efficacy and Safety of Ticagrelor Monotherapy by Clinical Presentation: Pre-Specified Analysis of the GLOBAL LEADERS Trial.

Background The optimal duration of dual antiplatelet therapy after coronary drug-eluting stent placement in adults with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) versus acute coronary syndromes (ACS) remains uncertain. Methods and Results This was a prespecified subgroup analysis of the GLOBAL LEADERS trial. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to the experimental or reference strategy, stratified by ACS (experimental, n=3750; reference, n=3737) versus SCAD (experimental, n=4230; reference, n=4251). The experimental strategy was 75 to 100 mg aspirin daily plus 90 mg ticagrelor twice daily for 1 month, followed by 23 months of ticagrelor monotherapy. The reference strategy was 75 to 100 mg aspirin daily plus either 75 mg clopidogrel daily (for SCAD) or 90 mg ticagrelor twice daily (for ACS) for 12 months, followed by aspirin monotherapy for 12 months. The primary end point at 2 years was a composite of all-cause mortality or non-fatal centrally adjudicated new Q-wave myocardial infarction. The key secondary safety end point was site-reported Bleeding Academic Research Consortium grade 3 or 5 bleeding. The primary end point occurred in 147 (3.92%) versus 169 (4.52%) patients with ACS (rate ratio [RR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.69-1.08; P=0.189), and in 157 (3.71%) versus 180 (4.23%) patients with SCAD (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.71-1.08; P=0.221) with experimental and reference strategy, respectively (P-interaction=0.926). Bleeding Academic Research Consortium grade 3 or 5 bleeding occurred in 73 (1.95%) versus 100 (2.68%) patients with ACS (RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54-0.98; P=0.037), and in 90 (2.13%) versus 69 (1.62%) patients with SCAD (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.97-1.81; P=0.081; P-interaction=0.007). Conclusions While there was no evidence for differences in efficacy between treatment strategies by subgroup, the experimental strategy appeared to reduce bleeding risk in patients with ACS but not in patients with SCAD. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01813435

Development of a risk score for early saphenous vein graft failure: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Early saphenous vein graft (SVG) occlusion is typically attributed to technical factors. We aimed at exploring clinical, anatomical, and operative factors associated with the risk of early SVG occlusion (within 12 months postsurgery). METHODS: Published literature in MEDLINE was searched for studies reporting the incidence of early SVG occlusion. Individual patient data (IPD) on early SVG occlusion were used from the SAFINOUS-CABG Consortium. A derivation (n = 1492 patients) and validation (n = 372 patients) cohort were used for model training (with 10-fold cross-validation) and external validation respectively. RESULTS: In aggregate data meta-analysis (48 studies, 41,530 SVGs) the pooled estimate for early SVG occlusion was 11%. The developed IPD model for early SVG occlusion, which included clinical, anatomical, and operative characteristics (age, sex, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, serum creatinine, endoscopic vein harvesting, use of complex grafts, grafted target vessel, and number of SVGs), had good performance in the derivation (c-index = 0.744; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.701-0.774) and validation cohort (c-index = 0.734; 95% CI, 0.659-0.809). Based on this model. we constructed a simplified 12-variable risk score system (SAFINOUS score) with good performance for early SVG occlusion (c-index = 0.700, 95% CI, 0.684-0.716). CONCLUSIONS: From a large international IPD collaboration, we developed a novel risk score to assess the individualized risk for early SVG occlusion. The SAFINOUS risk score could be used to identify patients that are more likely to benefit from aggressive treatment strategies

Reminding peer reviewers of reporting guideline items to improve completeness in published articles: primary results of 2 randomized trials

Importance:  Numerous studies have shown that adherence to reporting guidelines is suboptimal. Objective:  To evaluate whether asking peer reviewers to check if specific reporting guideline items were adequately reported would improve adherence to reporting guidelines in published articles. Design, Setting, and Participants:  Two parallel-group, superiority randomized trials were performed using manuscripts submitted to 7 biomedical journals (5 from the BMJ Publishing Group and 2 from the Public Library of Science) as the unit of randomization, with peer reviewers allocated to the intervention or control group. Interventions:  The first trial (CONSORT-PR) focused on manuscripts that presented randomized clinical trial (RCT) results and reported following the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) guideline, and the second trial (SPIRIT-PR) focused on manuscripts that presented RCT protocols and reported following the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) guideline. The CONSORT-PR trial included manuscripts that described RCT primary results (submitted July 2019 to July 2021). The SPIRIT-PR trial included manuscripts that contained RCT protocols (submitted June 2020 to May 2021). Manuscripts in both trials were randomized (1:1) to the intervention or control group; the control group received usual journal practice. In the intervention group of both trials, peer reviewers received an email from the journal that asked them to check whether the 10 most important and poorly reported CONSORT (for CONSORT-PR) or SPIRIT (for SPIRIT-PR) items were adequately reported in the manuscript. Peer reviewers and authors were not informed of the purpose of the study, and outcome assessors were blinded. Main Outcomes and Measures:  The difference in the mean proportion of adequately reported 10 CONSORT or SPIRIT items between the intervention and control groups in published articles. Results:  In the CONSORT-PR trial, 510 manuscripts were randomized. Of those, 243 were published (122 in the intervention group and 121 in the control group). A mean proportion of 69.3% (95% CI, 66.0%-72.7%) of the 10 CONSORT items were adequately reported in the intervention group and 66.6% (95% CI, 62.5%-70.7%) in the control group (mean difference, 2.7%; 95% CI, −2.6% to 8.0%). In the SPIRIT-PR trial, of the 244 randomized manuscripts, 178 were published (90 in the intervention group and 88 in the control group). A mean proportion of 46.1% (95% CI, 41.8%-50.4%) of the 10 SPIRIT items were adequately reported in the intervention group and 45.6% (95% CI, 41.7% to 49.4%) in the control group (mean difference, 0.5%; 95% CI, −5.2% to 6.3%). Conclusions and Relevance:  These 2 randomized trials found that it was not useful to implement the tested intervention to increase reporting completeness in published articles. Other interventions should be assessed and considered in the future. Trial Registration:  ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT05820971 (CONSORT-PR) and NCT05820984 (SPIRIT-PR

Reporting quality of clinical trial protocols: a repeated cross-sectional study about the Adherence to SPIrit Recommendations in Switzerland, CAnada and GErmany (ASPIRE-SCAGE)

OBJECTIVES Comprehensive protocols are key for the planning and conduct of randomised clinical trials (RCTs). Evidence of low reporting quality of RCT protocols led to the publication of the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) checklist in 2013. We aimed to examine the quality of reporting of RCT protocols from three countries before and after the publication of the SPIRIT checklist. DESIGN Repeated cross sectional study. SETTING Swiss, German and Canadian research ethics committees (RECs). PARTICIPANTS RCT protocols approved by RECs in 2012 (n=257) and 2016 (n=292). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcomes were the proportion of reported SPIRIT items per protocol and the proportion of trial protocols reporting individual SPIRIT items. We compared these outcomes in protocols approved in 2012 and 2016, and built regression models to explore factors associated with adherence to SPIRIT. For each protocol, we also extracted information on general trial characteristics and assessed whether individual SPIRIT items were reported RESULTS: The median proportion of reported SPIRIT items among RCT protocols showed a non-significant increase from 72% (IQR, 63%-79%) in 2012 to 77% (IQR, 68%-82%) in 2016. However, in a preplanned subgroup analysis, we detected a significant improvement in investigator-sponsored protocols: the median proportion increased from 64% (IQR, 55%-72%) in 2012 to 76% (IQR, 64%-83%) in 2016, while for industry-sponsored protocols median adherence was 77% (IQR 72%-80%) for both years. The following trial characteristics were independently associated with lower adherence to SPIRIT: single-centre trial, no support from a clinical trials unit or contract research organisation, and investigator-sponsorship. CONCLUSIONS In 2012, industry-sponsored RCT protocols were reported more comprehensively than investigator-sponsored protocols. After publication of the SPIRIT checklist, investigator-sponsored protocols improved to the level of industry-sponsored protocols, which did not improve

Cohort study to assess the quality and methodological conduct of clinical trials

Clinical trials should be based on well-constructed study protocols. In practice, however, trial protocols are variable in their content and quality. This thesis examined the design and planned methodological conduct of contemporary clinical trials using a cohort of clinical trial protocols. The DPhil candidate was granted access to 259 clinical trial protocols approved by the United Kingdom National Research Ethics Service in 2012. The cohort included non-randomized clinical trials as well as randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and there was no restriction by intervention, funding source or medical specialty. There were five broad findings. First, clinical trial protocols were variable in the quality of reporting of multiple methodological items, including items that have been associated with bias. Second, the majority of trial protocols included patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) but few discussed the validity of the PROM, the strategy for dealing with missing data and the sample size calculation. Third, the primary and secondary outcomes in the trial protocols were compared to the trial registry entry if available. In this analysis, agreement in the reporting of outcomes in the trial protocol and trial registry was modest. Notably, pharmacologic trials and multicentre trials were less likely to have discrepancies between the protocol and registry as compared to non-pharmacologic and single centre trials, respectively. Fourth, multi-arm trials made up just 8% of all clinical trial protocols. Methodological items that were important for multi-arm trials were also omitted in trial protocols. Finally, phase I trials were generally safe but recommended strategies for the identification of starting doses and the administration of the novel agents were infrequently followed. Also, phase I trials with serious adverse events were not disseminated. Taken together, this thesis has provided insight into different methodological issues in the design, conduct and dissemination of clinical trials

Proportion and Characteristics of US Adults Who May Be Eligible From Additional Blood Pressure Lowering Based on Absolute Risk

BACKGROUND The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) and the Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation 3 (HOPE-3) trial demonstrated the merits of blood pressure (BP) lowering to reduce cardiovascular events in intermediate to high cardiovascular risk adults. However, the population impact of an absolute risk-based strategy for BP lowering remains unclear. METHODS We examined 3 treatment thresholds using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. First, the JNC8 guideline was used to determine treatment goals. Second, adults with a systolic BP (SBP) of 130 mm Hg and high cardiovascular risk (based on eligibility for SPRINT) were considered eligible for additional BP lowering. Finally, we combined the treatment threshold for high-risk adults with an SBP treatment threshold of 140 mm Hg for intermediate-risk adults that met the eligibility criteria for HOPE-3. RESULTS Under the JNC8 guideline, 78.0% of adults ≥50 years were at target while 22.0% were eligible for additional BP lowering. If an SBP treatment threshold of 130 mm Hg was used for adults at high cardiovascular risk, 31.1% would be eligible for additional BP lowering (an increase of 8.1 million). If an SBP threshold of 140 mm Hg was additionally used for adults at intermediate risk, 31.4% of adults would be eligible for BP lowering (an increase of 8.3 million). The proportion of adults eligible for BP lowering with established coronary artery disease decreased with the risk-based strategies. CONCLUSION An absolute risk treatment strategy would modestly increase the proportion of adults eligible for BP lowering