Predictions and Uncertainty Estimates of Reactor Pressure Vessel Steel Embrittlement Using Machine Learning

An essential aspect of extending safe operation of the active nuclear reactors is understanding and predicting the embrittlement that occurs in the steels that make up the Reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In this work we integrate state of the art machine learning methods using ensembles of neural networks with unprecedented data collection and integration to develop a new model for RPV steel embrittlement. The new model has multiple improvements over previous machine learning and hand-tuned efforts, including greater accuracy (e.g., at high-fluence relevant for extending the life of present reactors), wider domain of applicability (e.g., including a wide-range of compositions), uncertainty quantification, and online accessibility for easy use by the community. These improvements provide a model with significant new capabilities, including the ability to easily and accurately explore compositions, flux, and fluence effects on RPV steel embrittlement for the first time. Furthermore, our detailed comparisons show our approach improves on the leading American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E900-15 standard model for RPV embrittlement on every metric we assessed, demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning approaches for this type of highly demanding materials property prediction

Advanced Models of LWR Pressure Vessel Embrittlement for Low Flux-HighFluence Conditions

Neutron embrittlement of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) is an unresolved issue for light water reactor life extension, especially since transition temperature shifts (TTS) must be predicted for high 80-year fluence levels up to approximately 1,020 n/cm{sup 2}, far beyond the current surveillance database. Unfortunately, TTS may accelerate at high fluence, and may be further amplified by the formation of late blooming phases that result in severe embrittlement even in low-copper (Cu) steels. Embrittlement by this mechanism is a potentially significant degradation phenomenon that is not predicted by current regulatory models. This project will focus on accurately predicting transition temperature shifts at high fluence using advanced physically based, empirically validated and calibrated models. A major challenge is to develop models that can adjust test reactor data to account for flux effects. Since transition temperature shifts depend on synergistic combinations of many variables, flux-effects cannot be treated in isolation. The best current models systematically and significantly under-predict transition temperature at high fluence, although predominantly for irradiations at much higher flux than actual RPV service. This project will integrate surveillance, test reactor and mechanism data with advanced models to address a number of outstanding RPV embrittlement issues. The effort will include developing new databases and preliminary models of flux effects for irradiation conditions ranging from very low (e.g., boiling water reactor) to high (e.g., accelerated test reactor). The team will also develop a database and physical models to help predict the conditions for the formation of Mn-Ni-Si late blooming phases and to guide future efforts to fully resolve this issue. Researchers will carry out other tasks on a best-effort basis, including prediction of transition temperature shift attenuation through the vessel wall, remediation of embrittlement by annealing, and fracture toughness master curve issues

Advanced Models of LWR Pressure Vessel Embrittlement for Low Flux-HighFluence Conditions

Neutron embrittlement of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) is an unresolved issue for light water reactor life extension, especially since transition temperature shifts (TTS) must be predicted for high 80-year fluence levels up to approximately 1,020 n/cm{sup 2}, far beyond the current surveillance database. Unfortunately, TTS may accelerate at high fluence, and may be further amplified by the formation of late blooming phases that result in severe embrittlement even in low-copper (Cu) steels. Embrittlement by this mechanism is a potentially significant degradation phenomenon that is not predicted by current regulatory models. This project will focus on accurately predicting transition temperature shifts at high fluence using advanced physically based, empirically validated and calibrated models. A major challenge is to develop models that can adjust test reactor data to account for flux effects. Since transition temperature shifts depend on synergistic combinations of many variables, flux-effects cannot be treated in isolation. The best current models systematically and significantly under-predict transition temperature at high fluence, although predominantly for irradiations at much higher flux than actual RPV service. This project will integrate surveillance, test reactor and mechanism data with advanced models to address a number of outstanding RPV embrittlement issues. The effort will include developing new databases and preliminary models of flux effects for irradiation conditions ranging from very low (e.g., boiling water reactor) to high (e.g., accelerated test reactor). The team will also develop a database and physical models to help predict the conditions for the formation of Mn-Ni-Si late blooming phases and to guide future efforts to fully resolve this issue. Researchers will carry out other tasks on a best-effort basis, including prediction of transition temperature shift attenuation through the vessel wall, remediation of embrittlement by annealing, and fracture toughness master curve issues

Development of High-Temperature Ferritic Alloys and Performance Prediction Methods for Advanced Fission Energy Systems

Reports the results of a comprehensive development and analysis of a database on irradiation hardening and embrittlement of tempered martensitic steels (TMS). Alloy specific quantitative semi-empirical models were derived for the dpa dose, irradiation temperature (ti) and test (Tt) temperature of yield stress hardening (or softening)

Status of Muon Collider Research and Development and Future Plans

The status of the research on muon colliders is discussed and plans are outlined for future theoretical and experimental studies. Besides continued work on the parameters of a 3-4 and 0.5 TeV center-of-mass (CoM) energy collider, many studies are now concentrating on a machine near 0.1 TeV (CoM) that could be a factory for the s-channel production of Higgs particles. We discuss the research on the various components in such muon colliders, starting from the proton accelerator needed to generate pions from a heavy-Z target and proceeding through the phase rotation and decay ($\pi \to \mu \nu_{\mu}$) channel, muon cooling, acceleration, storage in a collider ring and the collider detector. We also present theoretical and experimental R & D plans for the next several years that should lead to a better understanding of the design and feasibility issues for all of the components. This report is an update of the progress on the R & D since the Feasibility Study of Muon Colliders presented at the Snowmass'96 Workshop [R. B. Palmer, A. Sessler and A. Tollestrup, Proceedings of the 1996 DPF/DPB Summer Study on High-Energy Physics (Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA, 1997)].Comment: 95 pages, 75 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Special Topics, Accelerators and Beam