Constraints to fertilizer use in Nigeria

Fertilizer consumption rates in Nigeria remains among the lowest in the world despite decades of aggressive subsidization. The extension service in Nigeria has a double-edged impact on fertilizer use in the country; not only can their activities increase farmers’ demand for fertilizer, but also the organizational framework of the service, Agricultural Development Programs, is the major source of fertilizer for farmers. To provide insights on the reasons for the low fertilizer use in Nigeria, this paper presents an analysis of the extension service as well as some perspectives of village extension agents. We find that the reach of the extension service is severely limited by low staff. The main technology transmitted is the use of improved seeds. Fertilizer technology is seldom transmitted and very rarely is irrigation taught. Furthermore, extension agents are found to have gaps in their knowledge of fertilizer technology. Extension agents routinely distribute agricultural inputs and many see their advisory role as secondary to this function. Extension agents identified the primary constraint to fertilizer use in Nigeria as the physical absence of the product at the time that it is needed, rather than lack of affordability or farmers’ lack of knowledge about the benefits or the use of fertilizer.Agricultural growth and technologies, Extension, Fertilizer, Subsidies,

Mapping the policy process in Nigeria

How research contributes to the policy process in developing countries in general, and in Nigeria more specifically, is not well understood. Yet such understanding is a critical part of doing effective policy research. This has become especially critical for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which has set up a country office for policy research in Nigeria. A key challenge for IFPRI, and other research organizations in the country, is how to better integrate research results into policy and communicate research results to Nigerian policymakers. To gain some useful insights into how research does, or does not, influence policy in Nigeria, we examined a case involving the process leading up to the adoption in 2006 of Nigeria’s National Fertilizer Policy. Rather than focusing on how research influences policy in general, examining a particular policy allowed us to trace the actual policy process that took place, the actors involved, and the types of links and interactions between them. A diverse group of stakeholders (government, donors, the research community, farmer organizations, and the private sector) undoubtedly debated the content of the fertilizer policy. Thus, its successful formulation and adoption offered a useful opportunity to examine how it came about in spite of competing vested interests (both for and against it) and what role, if any, research-based information played in developing it. The policy covered some highly contentious political issues, most prominently the issue of privatization of the fertilizer sector in place of the large-scale and long-standing subsidy program. How the actors engaged and appeased people with vested interests who would normally oppose the policy, and the degree to which research-based information played a role in policy development, is of interest to IFPRI and others engaged in policy research. To study the policy process that led to the formulation and adoption of the National Fertilizer Policy, we used a network-mapping tool, Net-Map. Drawing on social network approaches, the tool is particularly suitable since it can help highlight the actors and formal and informal interactions involved in the policy process, as well as examine the flows of information from researchers to help determine the pathways of research-based information. In support of the Net-Map method, we also undertook a content analysis of published and grey literature on fertilizer policies in Nigeria in the years prior to the passing of the fertilizer bill. This provided a context for the knowledge-based and policy discussions, who was involved in them, and who funded or drove them.Development strategies, Fertilizer, Net-Map, policy processes, Social network analysis,

Can the Yield Curve Predict Economic Growth Performance? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The paper investigates the capability of the yield curve to predict future economic activity in Nigeria, especially before, during and after the 2016/2017 economic recession. Using quarterly data on the index of industrial production (as a proxy for economic growth) and yield spread, we generated regression results for various data samples including the era of the global financial crisis- GFC (2007-2009); pre-economic recession in Nigeria (2010-2015) and economic recession / slow recovery (2016-2019).Though the model behaved differently before, during and after the 2016/2017 economic recession, general results indicated the substantial predictive power of the yield spread in providing a good forecast of the level of economic activity up to four quarters into the future. The paper therefore, strongly demonstrated the influence of yield spreads in predicting the future level of Nigeria’s economic activity. Keywords: Yield curve, economic growth, recession, forecast, Nigeria. DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-10-05 Publication date:May 31st 202

Does Monetary Policy matter for Agricultural Sector Performance? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The paper examined the impact of monetary policy on agricultural sector performance in Nigeria, using annual data spanning the period 1981 to 2016. Given its significant role in providing employment to about 60 % of the economically active population and 70% of the country’s poorest communities, agriculture has huge potential for achieving poverty reduction in Nigeria. In this regard, the study employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and established a long- run relationship between agriculture value added and some monetary policy variables. Specifically, the findings suggested that in the long-run, money supply and maximum lending rate have significant effects on agriculture value added while exchange rate and inflation do not. Given the important role of money supply in promoting agricultural sector performance, the paper recommends an expansionary but non-inflationary monetary policy to improve value addition to the agricultural sector of the Nigerian economy. Keywords: Agricultural Value Added, Monetary Policy, ARDL approach, Nigeria. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-12-05 Publication date:June 30th 2019

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

African Jointfir (Gnetum africanum) and Editan (Lasianthera africana) leaf alkaloid extracts exert antioxidant and anticholinesterase activities in fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster)

Abstract African Jointfir (Gnetum africanum) and Editan (Lasianthera africana) leaves are two leafy green veggies with several nutritional and medicinal properties. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a form of neurodegeneration that is believed to cause dementia in affected individuals. The quest for alternative treatments has necessitated the exploitation of plants' secondary metabolites. Plant alkaloids have recently demonstrated relevance in the management of a variety of neurodegenerative disorders; although there is limited information on the neuroprotective properties of alkaloids from various tropical green leafy vegetables with neuroprotective potentials. As a result, this study examined the cholinesterase inhibitory activity and antioxidant potential of alkaloid extracts from the leaves of African Jointfir (G. africanum) and Editan (L. africana). Standard solvent extraction techniques were used to prepare alkaloid extracts. After that, these extracts were characterized using high‐performance liquid chromatography. In vitro acetylcholinesterase inhibition assay for the extracts was also carried out. Subsequently, the alkaloid extracts were included in the diets of these flies (2 and 10 μg/g) for 7 days. Thereafter, treated fly homogenates were assayed for cholinesterase, monoamine oxidase, and antioxidant enzymes (specifically, glutathione‐S‐transferase catalase, and superoxide dismutase) activities, in addition, thiobarbituric acid reactive substance, reactive oxygen species, and total thiol contents. The extracts showed considerable anticholinesterase, antioxidant, and antimonoamine oxidase capabilities, according to the study's findings. Also, HPLC characterization revealed that desulphosinigrin (597,000 ng/100 g) and atropine (44,200 ng/100 g) are the predominating phytochemicals in Editan and African Jointfir respectively. These extracts could serve as potential sources of nutraceuticals with neuroprotective properties which can be used in the treatment/management of Alzheimer's disease