S-I-S COMPARTMENTAL MODELING AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF EBOLA OUTBREAK IN CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA.

In this work, Ebola epidemic outbreak cases and deaths were modeled using compartmental model of epidemic mathematics and kinetics. Data were obtained from credible internet sources like Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) which were used to validate our model, and the results show that it was almost a perfect model for some countries of West Africa but just good enough for Central Africa as the R2 shows. The goodness of fit terms of coefficient of correlation (R2) of the developed model on test data gives excellent validation. For Guinea, R2 is 0.9997 for both cases and deaths test data. For Liberia, R2 is 0.9977 for both cases and deaths test data. For Sierra Leone, R2 is 0.9997 (for cases) and 0.9995 (for deaths data). For Nigeria, R2 is 0.9914 (for cases data) and 0.9979 (for deaths data). For Central Africa, R2 is 0.9343 (for cases data) and 0.9304 (for deaths data). The response plot of the cumulative cases and deaths as well as the monthly cases and deaths between the three worst-hit countries, namely (Liberia, Guinea. Sierra Leone) show very serious interaction since the EVD is spread by bats, gorillas, herbivorous animals that live in the bush and thick forest. We should reduce the rate of contact with the animals and stop eating them especially their carcasses found in the bushes and thickets. These findings can be used in studying future ebola epidemic and pandemic outbreaks by World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (Pan-AHO), Centers for Disease Control (CDC), etc

Modelling the Dynamics of a Hypereutrophication Process in Ruguma Ponds in Rumuosi-Akpor, Nigeria

In this work, Experimental results were monitored for a period of eight months on certain variables parameter in great Ruguma eutrophication site with Fugro International Laboratory to observe the profiles of the simultaneous variations of these parameters with time. Some parameters show the approach or eminence of hypereutrophication. Cox et al (2009) model for recovering from hypereutrophication was modified to accommodate phosphate concentration variation in the great Ruguma hypereutrophication. Numerical values of constraints, initial and boundary conditions were culled in from the works of Cox et al (2009) in solving the system of ODEs modified.From the analysis made on the results obtained, the Great Ruguma Seasonal Ponds may be said to be recovering from hypereutrophication.The findings of this work can be applied in any trophic study especially when it is entering or recovering from hypereutrophication

Curve-Fitting of Bioremediation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) By Co-Composting Using Roost Manure

In this work, ten polluted sites with oil were obtained from Niger Delta, mixed homogenously with compost manure and sent to FUGRO International Laboratory PortHarcourt Nigeria, for bioremediation experiments and analyses. The 4800g sample was divided into twelve (12) equal parts of 400g for bioremediation; 6 parts for the experiments and 6 parts for the control. Particular ringed PAH was isolatedly tested for bioremediation for each of the five ringed PAHs (1 to 5 rings) and the 800g sample was used for respiration test of compost incubation. It was found that the efficiency of bioremediation increased from one to three rings and decreased exponentially for the rest of the rings, showing that bioremediation is not effective for higher ring PAHs. It was also found that bioremediation yields best (optimum) result between two and three ringed PAHs. The respiration of the compost microorganisms improved during incubation by more than two-third i.e 67.7%. The result of this work can be used in bioremediation studies when trying to isolate or choose a particular ringed PAHs for such bioremediation job