Discovery and validation of a three-gene signature to distinguish COVID-19 and other viral infections in emergency infectious disease presentations: a case-control and observational cohort study

Summary Background Emergency admissions for infection often lack initial diagnostic certainty. COVID-19 has highlighted a need for novel diagnostic approaches to indicate likelihood of viral infection in a pandemic setting. We aimed to derive and validate a blood transcriptional signature to detect viral infections, including COVID-19, among adults with suspected infection who presented to the emergency department. Methods Individuals (aged ≥18 years) presenting with suspected infection to an emergency department at a major teaching hospital in the UK were prospectively recruited as part of the Bioresource in Adult Infectious Diseases (BioAID) discovery cohort. Whole-blood RNA sequencing was done on samples from participants with subsequently confirmed viral, bacterial, or no infection diagnoses. Differentially expressed host genes that met additional filtering criteria were subjected to feature selection to derive the most parsimonious discriminating signature. We validated the signature via RT-qPCR in a prospective validation cohort of participants who presented to an emergency department with undifferentiated fever, and a second case-control validation cohort of emergency department participants with PCR-positive COVID-19 or bacterial infection. We assessed signature performance by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, and specificities. Findings A three-gene transcript signature, comprising HERC6, IGF1R, and NAGK, was derived from the discovery cohort of 56 participants with bacterial infections and 27 with viral infections. In the validation cohort of 200 participants, the signature differentiated bacterial from viral infections with an AUROC of 0·976 (95% CI 0·919−1·000), sensitivity of 97·3% (85·8−99·9), and specificity of 100% (63·1−100). The AUROC for C-reactive protein (CRP) was 0·833 (0·694−0·944) and for leukocyte count was 0·938 (0·840−0·986). The signature achieved higher net benefit in decision curve analysis than either CRP or leukocyte count for discriminating viral infections from all other infections. In the second validation analysis, which included SARS-CoV-2-positive participants, the signature discriminated 35 bacterial infections from 34 SARS-CoV-2-positive COVID-19 infections with AUROC of 0·953 (0·893−0·992), sensitivity 88·6%, and specificity of 94·1%. Interpretation This novel three-gene signature discriminates viral infections, including COVID-19, from other emergency infection presentations in adults, outperforming both leukocyte count and CRP, thus potentially providing substantial clinical utility in managing acute presentations with infection. Funding National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and EU-FP7

Two-year analysis of Clostridium difficile ribotypes associated with increased severity

Background Certain Clostridium difficile ribotypes have been associated with complex disease phenotypes including recurrence and increased severity, especially the well-described hypervirulent ribotype RT027. In this study we set out to determine the pattern of ribotypes causing infection and association if any with severity. Methods All faecal samples submitted to a large diagnostic laboratory for C. difficile testing between 2011 and 2013 were subject to routine testing and cultured. All C. difficile isolates were ribotyped and associated clinical and demographic patient data were retrieved then linked to ribotyping data. Results A total of 86 distinct ribotypes were identified from 705 isolates of C. difficile. Ribotypes RT002 and RT015 were the most prevalent (22.5%, n=159). Only five isolates (0.7%) were the hypervirulent RT027. Ninety of 450 (20%) patients with clinical information available died within 30-days of C. difficile isolation. Ribotype RT220, one of the ten commonest ribotypes, was associated with elevated median C-reactive protein and significantly increased 30-day all-cause mortality when compared with ribotypes RT002 and RT015, and with all other ribotypes found in the study. Conclusions A wide range of C. difficile ribotypes were responsible for C. difficile infection presentations. Although C. difficile-associated mortality has reduced in recent years, expansion of lineages associated with increased severity could herald increases in future mortality. Enhanced surveillance for emerging lineages such as RT220 that are associated with more severe disease is required, with genomic approaches to dissect pathogenicity

Discovery and validation of a 3-gene signature to distinguish COVID-19 and other viral infections in emergency infectious disease presentations; a case-control then observational cohort study

Background: Emergency admissions for infection often lack initial diagnostic certainty. COVID-19 has highlighted a need for novel diagnostic approaches to indicate likelihood of viral infection in a pandemic setting. We sought to derive and validate a blood transcriptional signature to detect viral infections including COVID-19 among adults with suspected infection presenting to the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: Blood RNA sequencing was performed on a discovery cohort of adults attending the ED with suspected infection who had subsequently-confirmed viral, bacterial, or no infection diagnoses. Differentially expressed host genes were subjected to feature selection to derive the most parsimonious discriminating signature. RT-qPCR validation of the signature was then performed in a prospective cohort of ED patients presenting with undifferentiated fever, and a second case-control cohort of ED patients with COVID-19 or bacterial infection. Signature performance was assessed by calculating area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROCs), sensitivities, and specificities. Findings: A 3-gene transcript signature was derived from the discovery cohort of 56 bacterial and 27 viral infection cases. In the validation cohort of 200 cases, the signature differentiated bacterial from viral infections with an AUC-ROC of 0.976 (95% CI: 0.919-1.000), sensitivity 97.3% and specificity of 100%. The AUC-ROC for C-reactive protein (CRP) and leucocyte count (WCC) was 0.833 (95% CI: 0.694-0.944) and 0.938 (95% CI: 0.840-0.986) respectively. The signature achieved higher net benefit in decision curve analysis than either CRP or WCC for discriminating viral infections from all other cases. In the second validation analysis the signature discriminated 35 bacterial infections from 34 SARS-CoV-2 positive COVID-19 infections with AUC-ROC of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.893-0.992), sensitivity 88.6% and specificity of 94.1%. Interpretation: This novel 3-gene signature discriminates viral infections including COVID-19 from other emergency infection presentations in adults, outperforming both WCC and CRP, thus potentially providing significant clinical utility in managing acute presentations with infection