Modelling agricultural impacts of EU-NZ trade liberalisation

The European Union and New Zealand have signalled a desire to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA). This paper seeks to determine what form such an agreement would take by considering previous FTAs negotiated by each party. As agricultural is a particular significance to New Zealand and trade agreements in general, the impact on agriculture is assessed with use of a partial-equilibrium trade model. The report finds that likely areas of liberalisation for imports into New Zealand, are mechanical, electrical and transport goods. For New Zealand imports into the EU concessions on agricultural will be most significant, with an expected liberalisation on kiwifruit, and wine, and a renegotiation on quota access and sheepmeat and beef. One sensitive area is dairy products, where a longer tariff elimination period is expected. The trade modelling results show a small but positive impact on producer returns for both the EU and NZ

A horizon scan for temperate pastoral weed science–a New Zealand perspective

Pastures represent about half of the global agricultural area and productivity losses from weeds are significant. The complex interactions between them and other pasture plants, livestock and the environment imply a need for innovative research that transforms pasture management. To this end, a horizon scan was conducted to identify relevant issues, questions, opportunities, and drivers. The drivers were ranked using three criteria: (1) is this a horizon (is the driver likely to become important in 10–20 years?); (2) will the research require stretchy science (is it currently not well addressed by the science community?); (3) is the research transformative (will successful scientific research in this area lead to significant changes to weed management in pastures?). We identified 11 major issues and 46 subordinate ones. The three highest ranked major issues were: (1) anticipated reductions in access to herbicides; (2) rethinking weed management under an ecosystem services paradigm; (3) responding to shifts in best practice and the regulations that are altering farm system planning to reduce farming’s environmental impacts. We conclude that fundamental interdisciplinary research is needed that addresses biosecurity and weed management issues, while reducing the environmental footprint of farming and maintaining productivity

Resilience achieved via multiple compensating subsystems: The immediate impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the agri-food systems of Australia and New Zealand

Context: Since COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) was first identified in the human population, it has had immediate and significant effects on peoples' health and the worldwide economy. In the absence of a vaccine, control of the virus involved limiting its spread through restrictions in the movement of people, goods and services. This has led to unprecedented impacts on labour availability, provision of goods and services, value chains, and markets. Objective: Against the backdrop of COVID-19 control measures, this article summarises quantitative and qualitative assessments of the impacts, adaptations, and opportunities to increase the resilience of the agricultural systems in Australia and New Zealand. Methods: Using both survey and interview methodologies, we describe the various agri-food systems and the impacts of the COVID-19 control measures across different industries, and discuss the results applying a resilience framework. Results: As essential services, all agricultural activities except for fibre production have been permitted to continue during quarantine periods but have been exposed to the major flow-on effects of movement control. We found that, to June 2020, the impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the agri-food sectors in both Australia and New Zealand have been relatively small and that this has been due to the high levels of resilience in the agricultural systems and the people running them. Conclusions: We consider agri-food systems to be comprised of multiple subsystems with varying vulnerability to external influences. Agri-food systems were resilient to June 2020 at least, and that resilience was achieved via one or more subsystems that were able to compensate for the more vulnerable subsystems. We contrast the resilience of industries that have high plasticity (that can have a flow of material that can safely vary in time) to more rigid industries that are dependent on a steady flow of material with little or no storage. Ultimately both types of industries were resilient, but they achieved that resilience via compensating subsystems. High plasticity industries relied on their production and processing subsystem; rigid industries engaged their institutional subsystem to achieve the same end. The social and cultural subsystem was important across all industries. Significance: It is not yet clear if the current resilience mechanisms can persist under the continued onslaught of the virus. We indicate the need to capture longer term effects and analysis during the more sustained effects of the virus and through a recovery period. We anticipate a follow-up study in 2022