Intervention and the dollar's decline

An analysis of U.S. foreign exchange-market intervention and its effect on dollar depreciation, finding there is no systematic relationship between intervention and daily exchange-rate movements.Dollar, American ; Foreign exchange - Law and legislation

A Mexican currency board?

A look at the pros and cons of replacing Mexico's central bank with a currency board, explaining that although a currency board would eliminate monetary policy discretion and help to restore faith in the peso's purchasing power, it would also prevent exchange-rate changes from aiding economic adjustments.Currency boards ; Mexico

Do commodity prices signal inflation?

Do the rising commodity prices we have seen in recent years reflect basic supply-and-demand developments in various commodity markets, or are they the fi rst signs of inflation? In practice, it’s not always easy to tell the difference - for the public or policymakers - but fundamentally different they are. Central banks can do nothing about relative commodity price pressures, since central banks do not produce commodities. Likewise, commodity-price shocks do not impair the ability of central banks to control inflation in principle, but they can greatly complicate the task.Inflation (Finance) ; Prices

Global risks to U.S. monetary policy

We recently invited four international economists to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to discuss global developments and to help us identify and understand the key international risks that these developments present for U.S. monetary policy. This Commentary develops a key macroeconomic concern that emerged from our conversations.Monetary policy ; Globalization

Do deficits matter?

An argument that despite ballooning federal debt levels, no proof exists that government budget deficits are related to interest rates or real exchange rates, and that the size and composition of the government's budget are at least as critical as the federal deficit in determining the nation's long-term economic growth.Budget deficits

Rising relative prices or inflation: why knowing the difference matters

Almost everyone uses the word inflation to refer to any increase in prices, but it ought to be reserved for a just one kind of price increase. True inflation has a different cause—and a different cure—than the price increases of goods and services caused by constantly changing supply and demand conditions. The Federal Reserve can and should act to control inflation, but when relative-price changes are putting pressure on businesses and consumers, the Fed can do little.Inflation (Finance) ; Consumer price indexes

Exchange-market intervention: the channels of influence

A review of three channels through which central bank intervention could alter exchange rates, concluding that sterilized intervention is a very limited policy tool.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation

Replacing the dollar with special drawing rights--will it work this time?

The head of China’s central bank is calling for countries to replace the U.S. dollar as an international reserve currency with something called SDRs. Created by the IMF way back in 1969 for that purpose, SDRs never caught on. While SDRs may be declared an official international reserve asset today, they are not likely to become the world’s key international currency anytime soon. In the meantime, countries in China’s current predicament--acquiring more dollars than they think prudent--could avoid such risks in the future by allowing their currencies to appreciate.Special drawing rights ; Bank of China

On the rotation of the earth, drunken sailors, and exchange rate policy

A growing number of observers seem to believe that official foreign exchange intervention offers a useful tool for managing the dollar’s descent. In particular situations, official transactions can sometimes produce temporary changes in exchange rates, but intervention does not permit countries to avoid or substantially modify trends in the movements of their exchange rates. At best, intervention is of very limited value.Foreign exchange administration ; Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve as an informed foreign-exchange trader

U.S. exchange-market intervention has no apparent effect on market fundamentals but may influence expectations. If intervention can accurately forecast exchange-rate movements, knowledge that the Federal Reserve is trading can alter traders' prior estimates of the distribution of exchange-rate changes. This paper finds that U.S. intervention has value only as a forecast that recent exchange-rate movements will moderate but not that they will reverse.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation