Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 EVD cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186.00

Impact of mothers’ socio-demographic factors and antenatal clinic attendance on neonatal mortality in Nigeria

Neonatal death is often referred to maternal complications during pregnancy, and other exogenous factors that exist around the time of birth or shortly after birth. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDG)-Goal 3, Targets 3.2 aimed at ending preventable deaths of newborns by demanding that all countries should reduce neonatal mortality to 12 per 1000 live births by 2030. The objective of the study was to examine the relationship between mothers’ socioeconomic and demographic factors on neonatal deaths in Nigeria. The study used quantitative data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS). The data analyzed consisted of 26,826 women aged 15–49 years who had a live or dead birth within the 5 years preceding the survey. STATA 12 computer software was used to carry out data analyses. Data analyses were at univariate (frequency distribution), bivariate (chi-square) and due to the dichotomous nature of the outcome variable (i.e., whether a child was born alive or dead during the delivery; coded as (1, 0), a binary logistic regression was carried out to examine the relationships between various socio-demographic factors, antenatal clinic attendance and neonatal mortality in Nigeria. The results, among others, revealed that background factors of the women such as age, region, residence, education, and wealth status have a significant association with neonatal mortality (P < 0.05). The study also found that adequate antenatal clinic attendance helps to reduce neonatal deaths. The study recommended that women should be encouraged to observe regular antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy and also go for institutional delivery for possible reduction of neonates and infant deaths in Nigeria

Ultrasonic vibration-assisted pelleting for cellulosic biofuel manufacturing: investigation on power consumption

Cellulosic ethanol produced from cellulosic biomass is an alternative to petroleum-based transportation fuels. Raw cellulosic biomass has low density, causing high costs in their storage, transportation, and handling. Ultrasonic vibration-assisted (UV-A) pelleting can increase the density of cellulosic biomass. Effects of UV-A pelleting variables on pellet quality (density, durability, stability, and strength) and sugar yield have been reported. However, power consumption in UV-A pelleting has not been fully investigated. This paper presents an experimental investigation on power consumption in UV-A pelleting of wheat straw. Effects of input variables (biomass moisture content, biomass particle size, pelleting pressure, and ultrasonic power) on power consumption are investigated. Results show that power consumption in UV-A pelleting increases as moisture content and particle size decrease, and as pelleting pressure and ultrasonic power increase

Drivers and risk factors for circulating African swine fever virus in Uganda, 2012–2013

We explored observed risk factors and drivers of infection possibly associated with African swine fever (ASF) epidemiology in Uganda. Representative sub-populations of pig farms and statistics were used in a case-control model. Indiscriminate disposal of pig viscera and waste materials after slaughter, including on open refuse dumps, farm-gate buyers collecting pigs and pig products from within a farm, and retention of survivor pigs were plausible risk factors. Wire mesh-protected windows in pig houses were found to be protective against ASF infection. Sighting engorged ticks on pigs, the presence of a lock for each pig pen and/or a gate at the farm entrance were significantly associated with infection/noninfection; possible explanations were offered. Strict adherence to planned within-farm and communitybased biosecurity, and avoidance of identified risk factors is recommended to reduce infection. Training for small-scale and emerging farmers should involve multidimensional and multidisciplinary approaches to reduce human-related risky behaviours driving infection.National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) (4760UG) and the Department of Production Animal Studies and the Faculty of Veterinary Science, Onderstepoort, Pretoria, South Africa.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/rvsc2015-10-31hb201

Cost Implications of African Swine Fever in Smallholder Farrow-to-Finish Units: Economic Benefits of Disease Prevention Through Biosecurity

African swine fever remains the greatest limitation to the development of the pig industry in Africa, and parts of Asia and Europe. It is especially important in West and Central African countries where the disease has become endemic. Biosecurity is the implementation of a set of measures that reduce the risk of infection through segregation, cleaning and disinfection. Using a 122-sow piggery unit, a financial model and costing were used to estimate the economic benefits of effective biosecurity against African swine fever. The outcomes suggest that pig production is a profitable venture that can generate a profit of approximately US$109 637.40 per annum and that an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) has the potential to cause losses of up to US$910 836.70 in a single year. The implementation of biosecurity and its effective monitoring can prevent losses owing to ASF and is calculated to give a benefit-cost ratio of 29. A full implementation of biosecurity will result in a 9.70% reduction in total annual profit, but is justified in view of the substantial costs incurred in the event of an ASF outbreak. Biosecurity implementation is robust and capable of withstanding changes in input costs including moderate feed price increases, higher management costs and marginal reductions in total outputs. It is concluded that biosecurity is a key to successful pig production in an endemic situation.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1865-1682ab201

National surveillance and control costs for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry: A benefit-cost assessment for a developing economy, Nigeria

Supplementary material 1, Surveillance benefits and costs for HPAI H5N1, Nigeria, 2016Supplementary material 2, Surveillance benefits and costs for HPAI H5N1, Nigeria, 2016We conducted benefit-cost analysis of outbreak and surveillance costs for HPAI H5N1in poultry in Nigeria. Poultry's death directly cost US$939,734.0 due to outbreaks. The integrated disease surveillance and response originally created for comprehensive surveillance and laboratory investigation of human diseases was adapted for HPAI H5N1 in poultry. Input data were obtained from the field, government documents and repositories and peer-reviewed publications. Actual/forecasted bird numbers lost were integrated into a financial model and estimates of losses were calculated. Costs of surveillance as alternative intervention were determined based on previous outbreak control costs and outputs were generated in SurvCost® with sensitivity analyses for different scenarios. Uncontrolled outbreaks will lead to loss of over US$ 2.2 billion annually in Nigeria with 47.8% of the losses coming from eggs. The annual cost of all animal related health activities was <US$ 99.0 million, only one-third of this amount was linked with H5N1 surveillance and response activities. Recurrent cost was 96.2% of the total surveillance and response costs, and 31.0% of the HPAI surveillance cost was spent on personnel with 3.8% as capital cost. Cost-wisely, routine monitoring and surveillance for HPAI are 68 times more cost effective than to do nothing. Assuming that successful control and eradication of HPAI H5N1 is partially attributable to H5N1 surveillance and response, a quarter or half of the success will result in 17 or 34 times more benefits. Although animal surveillance and response activities for avian influenza appeared expensive, their implementation are economically cost beneficial for developing countries.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/rvsc2019-08-01hj2018Production Animal StudiesVeterinary Tropical Disease