Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Condensed Matter Theory of Dipolar Quantum Gases

Recent experimental breakthroughs in trapping, cooling and controlling ultracold gases of polar molecules, magnetic and Rydberg atoms have paved the way toward the investigation of highly tunable quantum systems, where anisotropic, long-range dipolar interactions play a prominent role at the many-body level. In this article we review recent theoretical studies concerning the physics of such systems. Starting from a general discussion on interaction design techniques and microscopic Hamiltonians, we provide a summary of recent work focused on many-body properties of dipolar systems, including: weakly interacting Bose gases, weakly interacting Fermi gases, multilayer systems, strongly interacting dipolar gases and dipolar gases in 1D and quasi-1D geometries. Within each of these topics, purely dipolar effects and connections with experimental realizations are emphasized.Comment: Review article; submitted 09/06/2011. 158 pages, 52 figures. This document is the unedited author's version of a Submitted Work that was subsequently accepted for publication in Chemical Reviews, copyright American Chemical Society after peer review. To access the final edited and published work, a link will be provided soo

Ammoniated electron as a solvent stabilized multimer radical anion

The excess electron in liquid ammonia ("ammoniated electron") is commonly viewed as a cavity electron in which the s-type wave function fills the interstitial void between 6-9 ammonia molecules. Here we examine an alternative model in which the ammoniated electron is regarded as a solvent stabilized multimer radical anion, as was originally suggested by Symons [Chem. Soc. Rev. 1976, 5, 337]. In this model, most of the excess electron density resides in the frontier orbitals of N atoms in the ammonia molecules forming the solvation cavity; a fraction of this spin density is transferred to the molecules in the second solvation shell. The cavity is formed due to the repulsion between negatively charged solvent molecules. Using density functional theory calculations for small ammonia cluster anions in the gas phase, it is demonstrated that such core anions would semi-quantitatively account for the observed pattern of Knight shifts for 1-H and 14-N nuclei observed by NMR spectroscopy and the downshifted stretching and bending modes observed by infrared spectroscopy. It is speculated that the excess electrons in other aprotic solvents (but not in water and alcohols) might be, in this respect, analogous to the ammoniated electron, with substantial transfer of the spin density into the frontier N and C orbitals of methyl, amino, and amide groups forming the solvation cavity.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures; to be submitted to J Phys Chem

General anaesthetic and airway management practice for obstetric surgery in England: a prospective, multi-centre observational study

There are no current descriptions of general anaesthesia characteristics for obstetric surgery, despite recent changes to patient baseline characteristics and airway management guidelines. This analysis of data from the direct reporting of awareness in maternity patients' (DREAMY) study of accidental awareness during obstetric anaesthesia aimed to describe practice for obstetric general anaesthesia in England and compare with earlier surveys and best-practice recommendations. Consenting patients who received general anaesthesia for obstetric surgery in 72 hospitals from May 2017 to August 2018 were included. Baseline characteristics, airway management, anaesthetic techniques and major complications were collected. Descriptive analysis, binary logistic regression modelling and comparisons with earlier data were conducted. Data were collected from 3117 procedures, including 2554 (81.9%) caesarean deliveries. Thiopental was the induction drug in 1649 (52.9%) patients, compared with propofol in 1419 (45.5%). Suxamethonium was the neuromuscular blocking drug for tracheal intubation in 2631 (86.1%), compared with rocuronium in 367 (11.8%). Difficult tracheal intubation was reported in 1 in 19 (95%CI 1 in 16-22) and failed intubation in 1 in 312 (95%CI 1 in 169-667). Obese patients were over-represented compared with national baselines and associated with difficult, but not failed intubation. There was more evidence of change in practice for induction drugs (increased use of propofol) than neuromuscular blocking drugs (suxamethonium remains the most popular). There was evidence of improvement in practice, with increased monitoring and reversal of neuromuscular blockade (although this remains suboptimal). Despite a high risk of difficult intubation in this population, videolaryngoscopy was rarely used (1.9%)