Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOS792 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Substantial Shifts in Supreme Court Health Law Jurisprudence

President Trump’s nomination of jurist Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court presents significant, potential changes on health law and policy issues. If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Kavanaugh’s approaches as a federal appellate court judge and scholar could literally shift the Court’s balance on consequential health policies. Judge Kavanaugh has disavowed broad discretion for federal agency authorities, cast significant doubts on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, and narrowly interpreted reproductive rights (most notably abortion services). He has supported gun rights pursuant to the Second Amendment beyond U.S. Supreme Court recent interpretations. His varying positions related to consumer protections, environmental regulation, and antidiscrimination protections lend further to major concerns on the maintenance of settled positions of the Court on these and other critical health issues

Handling Cases of Willful Exposure Through HIV Partner Counseling and Referral Services

Cases of willful exposure reveal the existing and future risks to the public health (especially women) which may be presented by individuals who willfully expose others to HIV through unsafe sexual or needle-sharing behaviors. In response to a documented case of willful exposure, a PCRS counselor or other public health official may, in his or her professional judgment, decide to act to avert a legitimate public health threat to known or unknown persons in the community. Yet handling such cases raises difficult issues in law, ethics, and public health practice. Public health authorities may be unable or ill-equipped to successfully control risks of this type for several reasons: (1) they may lack sufficient resources to properly investigate these cases; (2) they may lack knowledge or jurisdiction over the individual who willfully exposes others to HIV once his behaviors extend into other communities; and (3) they are bound to maintain the confidentiality of sensitive information they obtain from PCRS. How do health care workers and public health departments balance the duty to maintain the privacy of public health information related to PCRS against their obligation to fulfill a partner\u27s right to know of their exposure to infection? What are the legal powers and duties of public health departments to protect the health and safety of individuals as part of their mission to protect the public health? What is the role of the criminal law concerning persons who may intentionally or knowingly attempt to infect others with HIV or other communicable diseases

Discrete Scale Invariance and the "Second Black Monday"

Evidence is offered for log-periodic (in time) fluctuations in the S&P 500 stock index during the three years prior to the October 27, 1997 "correction". These fluctuations were expected on the basis of a discretely scale invariant rupture phenomenology of stock market crashes proposed earlier.Comment: LaTeX file, 4 pages, 2 figure

Personal Privacy and Common Goods: A Framework for Balancing Under the National Health Information Privacy Rule

In this Article, we discuss how these principles for balancing apply in a number of important contexts where individually identifiable health data are shared. In Part I, we analyze the modern view favoring autonomy and privacy. In the last several decades, individual autonomy has been used as a justification for preventing sharing of information irrespective of the good to be achieved. Although respect for privacy can sometimes be important for achieving public purposes (e.g., fostering the physician/patient relationship), it can also impair the achievement of goals that are necessary for any healthy and prosperous society. A framework for balancing that strictly favors privacy can lead to reduced efficiencies in clinical care, research, and public health. We reason that society would be better served, and individuals would be only marginally less protected, if privacy rules permitted exchange of data for important public benefits. In Part II, we explain the national health information privacy regulations: (1) what do they cover?; (2) to whom do they apply?; and (3) how do they safeguard personal privacy? Parts III and IV focus on whether the standards adhere, or fail to adhere, to the privacy principles discussed in Part I. In Part III, we examine two autonomy rules established in the national privacy regulations: informed consent (for uses or disclosures of identifiable health data for health-care related purposes) and written authorization (for uses or disclosures of health data for non-health care related purposes). We observe that the informed consent rule is neither informed nor consensual. The rule is likely to thwart the effective management of health organizations without benefiting the individual. Requiring written authorization, on the other hand, protects individual privacy to prevent disclosures to entities that do not perform health-related functions, such as employers and life insurers. In Part IV, we examine various contexts in which data can be shared for public purposes under the national privacy rule: public health, research, law enforcement, familial notification, and commercial marketing. We apply our framework for balancing in each context and observe the relative strengths and weaknesses of the privacy regulations in achieving a fair balance of private and public interests

Zika Virus and Global Health Security

Americans are largely apathetic about the risks of Zika virus and Congress cannot agree on preparedness funding. Strategies to counter the spread of Zika by the World Health Organisation (WHO) grossly underestimate the disease’s impact. WHO and member countries lack sufficient resources to respond. Consequences of fiscal apathy can be measured in lives lost and long-term disabilities. Zika prevention is a matter of global health security. The epidemiologic brunt of Zika in South America falls largely on vulnerable women at heightened risk of exposure through mosquitoes and sexual transmission. Resulting transmission to fetuses and infants will have generational impacts in South American and Caribbean countries, as well as the U.S. Global costs to address Zika infections among infected infants will exceed hundreds of billions (U.S. dollars). WHO and some U.S. leaders, including President Obama, correctly assert that Zika threatens national and global security similar to humanitarian crises, climate change, and war. Words alone, however, are not enough. Global recognition of this public health crisis must stimulate greater investment in preventing negative repercussions

Is the United States Prepared for a Major Zika Virus Outbreak?

Zika virus has emerged as a global public health crisis with active transmission in the Americas and Caribbean. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), and recently WHO reported there is a scientific consensus that Zika is a cause of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). In the U.S. the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) activated its emergency operations center at its highest capacity. President Obama requested $1.86 billion in emergency funding. Shamefully, Congress has yet to appropriate the funding needed for Zika preparedness, and the President has had to reallocate Ebola funding for Zika prevention. Although none of the continental states has reported local mosquito-borne transmission, federal authorities are amplifying the potential for Zika to affect national security. The virus already severely threatens Puerto Rico. Travelers visiting or returning to the United States could likely escalate the spread of Zika via sexual transmission. The virus may spread across a majority of US states including large cities where Aedes species mosquitos are active. Is the U.S. prepared for Zika? America\u27s highly functioning health system will help, but signs of unpreparedness remain due to insufficient resources and variable legal authorities

Gravitational Analogues of Non-linear Born Electrodynamics

Gravitational analogues of the nonlinear electrodynamics of Born and of Born and Infeld are introduced and applied to the black hole problem. This work is mainly devoted to the 2-dimensional case in which the relevant lagrangians are nonpolynomial in the scalar curvature.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, included a detailed discussion of "non-trace" field equation

Reframing the Opioid Epidemic as a National Emergency

On August 10, 2017 President Trump announced his intention to declare a national emergency following the recommendation of the White House Commission on Combating Drug Addiction and the Opioid Crisis. Opioid abuse is among the most consequential preventable public health threats facing the nation. More than 600,000 deaths have occurred to date, with 180,000 more predicted by 2020. Of the 20.5 million US residents 12 years or older with substance use disorders in 2015, 2 million were addicted to prescription pain relievers. A national emergency declaration authorizes public health powers, mobilizes resources, and facilitates innovative strategies to curb a rapidly escalating public health crisis