Method of control of efficiency of investment projects based on real option theory and method of analysis of hierarchies

The article is devoted to the development of a method for valuation and control of the efficiency of investment projects under conditions of high uncertainty. The limitations of the traditional valuation methods of the efficiency of investment projects are highlighted and a more relevant approach through the application of real option theory is proposed that allows for evaluating a project based on tis multivariance and the possibility of decision making at every stage of its development. The article shows that, despite the high relevance of the real options theory, its practical use is very difficult for a number of reasons. The main problem of estimating the value of real options is the need to use in the calculation a sufficient number of a priori statistics regarding the project, which is unfeasible. The authors propose a method in which the probabilistic characteristics of the model project are replaced with correct expert ratings. The method is referred to as the modified ROV-method (MROV). This method is based on the binomial model of assessing the value of real options by building a decision tree. At each node of the tree the project might develop in line with an “optimistic” or “pessimistic” forecast. Since the development of the project under any scenario depends on a number of criteria of the environment, the task of assessing the value of real options becomes a multicriteria one. One of the most sound and practically relevant methods of solving such problems is the method of analytic hierarchy process, which is the basis of the developed MROV method. The article also details the algorithm of implementing this method to determine quantitative estimates of the relative probabilities of the development of the project on “optimistic” or “pessimistic” scenarios in each node of the binomial tree. The resulting estimates subsequently used as weights in the calculation of the net present value of the optional investment project for a decision on the feasibility of its implementation and inclusion of the real options being evaluated in the project.Статья посвящена разработке метода оценки и управления эффективностью инвестиционных проектов в условиях высокой степени неопределенности. Обозначена ограниченность традиционных методов оценки эффективности инвестиционных проектов и предложен более актуальный подход на основе применения теории реальных опционов, который позволяет оценить проект с учетом его многовариантности и возможности принятия решений на каждом этапе его развития. В статье показано, что, несмотря на высокую актуальность теории реальных опционов, ее практическое использование весьма затруднительно по ряду причин. Основной проблемой в отношении оценки стоимости реальных опционов является необходимость использования в расчетах достаточного количества априорных статистических данных относительно проекта, что на практике является труднореализуемой задачей. Авторами предложен метод, в рамках которого вероятностные характеристики модели проекта заменяются корректными экспертными оценками, названный модифицированным ROV-методом (MROV). За основу данного метода взята биномиальная модель оценки стоимости реального опциона, основанная на построении дерева решений, в каждом узле которого возможно развитие проекта по оптимистическому или пессимистическому прогнозу. Поскольку развитие проекта по какому-либо сценарию зависит от ряда критериев среды, то задача оценки стоимости реального опциона становится многокритериальной задачей. Одним из наиболее обоснованных и практически адекватных методов решения подобных задач является метод анализа иерархий, который и положен в основу разрабатываемого MROV-метода. Также в статье подробно описан алгоритм реализации данного метода для определения количественных оценок относительных вероятностей развития проекта по «оптимистическому» или «пессимистическому» сценарию в каждом узле биномиального дерева решений. Полученные оценки в последующем используются в качестве весов при расчете чистой приведенной стоимости вариативного опционального инвестиционного проекта для принятия решения о целесообразности его реализации и включении в проект, оцениваемых реальных опционов

Medindo cidades sustentáveis na Rússia: análise crítica de metodologias-chave

The paper provides insights on the critical analysis of the current methodologies of the sustainability cities measurement for the present-day Russia. Based on meta-analysis of more than 90 peer-reviewed papers published in Russian and English, we examined both authoring and corporate methodologies such as the SGM methodology for Russian sustainable cities, the environmental rating of Russian cities, and the rating of the environmental governance of the Russian cities, the environmental efficacy index and several authoring methodologies. The analysis showed that most of the calculation methods are based on quantitative (statistical) data, what is their advantage, on the one hand, making their results as objective as possible, but on the other hand, it is a disadvantage, because in connection with the delay in publication of statistics or even its absence, it does not allow the annual dynamics to observe. In addition, the difficulty in choosing the most suitable methodology lies in the significant differences in the development of large, medium and small cities in Russia, and many rating methods are developed exclusively for one of the types of cities. Authors concluded that in spite of the high level of the existing methodologies development, there was a shortage of comprehensive studies carried out in the qualitative-quantitative paradigm that would, in addition to index assessment and mathematical models generation, explain complex causal relationships and processes within a city.El documento proporciona información sobre el análisis crítico de las metodologías actuales de la medición de ciudades de sostenibilidad para la Rusia actual. Con base en el metanálisis de más de 90 artículos revisados por pares publicados en ruso e inglés, examinamos tanto las metodologías de autoría y corporativas como la metodología SGM para ciudades sostenibles rusas, la calificación ambiental de las ciudades rusas y la calificación de la gobernanza ambiental de las ciudades rusas, el índice de eficacia ambiental y varias metodologías de autoría. El análisis mostró que la mayoría de los métodos de cálculo se basan en datos cuantitativos (estadísticos), lo que es su ventaja, por un lado, hacer que sus resultados sean lo más objetivos posible, pero por otro lado, es una desventaja, porque en conexión con el retraso en la publicación de las estadísticas o incluso su ausencia, no permite observar la dinámica anual. Además, la dificultad de elegir la metodología más adecuada radica en las diferencias significativas en el desarrollo de ciudades grandes, medianas y pequeñas en Rusia, y muchos métodos de calificación se desarrollan exclusivamente para uno de los tipos de ciudades. Los autores concluyeron que, a pesar del alto nivel de desarrollo de las metodologías existentes, había una escasez de estudios exhaustivos llevados a cabo en el paradigma cualitativo-cuantitativo que, además de la evaluación del índice y la generación de modelos matemáticos, explicaran relaciones y procesos causales complejos dentro de una ciudad.O artigo fornece insights sobre a análise crítica das metodologias atuais da medição das cidades de sustentabilidade para a Rússia atual. Com base na meta-análise de mais de 90 artigos revisados por pares publicados em russo e inglês, examinamos metodologias de autoria e corporativas, como a metodologia SGM para cidades russas sustentáveis, a classificação ambiental de cidades russas e a classificação da governança ambiental. das cidades russas, o índice de eficácia ambiental e várias metodologias de autoria. A análise mostrou que a maioria dos métodos de cálculo são baseados em dados quantitativos (estatísticos), o que é sua vantagem, por um lado, tornando seus resultados tão objetivos quanto possível, mas, por outro lado, é uma desvantagem, porque em com o atraso na publicação das estatísticas ou mesmo sua ausência, não permite que a dinâmica anual observe. Além disso, a dificuldade em escolher a metodologia mais adequada reside nas diferenças significativas no desenvolvimento de grandes, médias e pequenas cidades na Rússia, e muitos métodos de classificação são desenvolvidos exclusivamente para um dos tipos de cidades. Os autores concluíram que, apesar do alto nível de desenvolvimento das metodologias existentes, houve escassez de estudos abrangentes realizados no paradigma qualitativo-quantitativo que, além da avaliação de índices e da geração de modelos matemáticos, explicariam relações e processos causais complexos Uma cidade

Role of the administrative board of establishments of public health services in health protection of working women of pension age

In the Penza region fast rates increases a share of women of a pension age. In RSMU research on studying of their way of life and a state of health is conducted. 38,5% have noted negative influence of work on health. The syndrome of emotional burning out takes place. Direct correlation between age and presence of chronic diseases in a stage of subindemnification and декомпенсации is marked. To heads of establishments of public health services the knowledge of management in public health services for the medical aid organisation is necessary for an investigated contingent

Internal company interaction on example of management accounting system in innovative project

In the context of the implementation of numerous innovative projects around the world, one of the urgent tasks of the modern theory of management accounting is the harmonisation of business processes within systems of various specialization (management, accounting, design and production) that form the organisational structure of the company and are at its various levels. The problem is the inconsistency of the activities of economic and design departments in the process of forming the concept of an innovative product, due to the lack of a model of the mechanism of their interaction at various stages of an innovative project. The article describes the initial stage of testing the hypothesis of the existence of an optimal model of management accounting and cost design systems (design department) interaction model at various stages of an innovation project. Within the framework of the study, a number of tasks were solved, in particular: the task of choosing the most effective research method from the list of methods used by the authors of similar scientific papers; the task of describing the mechanism of interaction of the considered intra-organisational systems in the context of the implementation of an innovative project; the task of establishing the identity of problematic issues arising from the interaction of the management accounting system and the design service at various enterprises. The purpose of the study is to test the hypothesis of the existence of an optimal model of management accounting and cost design systems interaction. Within the framework of the study with the participation of a representative group of three enterprises, the results characterising the current state of the management accounting and cost design systems were obtained. In practice, the enterprises under consideration face problems related to the management accounting and cost design systems interaction model, which are often accompanied by a low level of development of business processes and project management. As a result of the conducted research, indirect confirmation of the proposed hypothesis of the study was obtained

Spatial beam self-cleaning and supercontinuum generation with Yb-doped multimode graded-index fiber taper based on accelerating self-imaging and dissipative landscape

We experimentally demonstrate spatial beam self-cleaning and supercontinuum generation in a tapered Ytterbium-doped multimode optical fiber with parabolic core refractive index profile when 1064 nm pulsed beams propagate from wider (122 µm) into smaller (37 µm) diameter. In the passive mode, increasing the input beam peak power above 20 kW leads to a bell-shaped output beam profile. In the active configuration, gain from the pump laser diode permits to combine beam self-cleaning with supercontinuum generation between 520-2600 nm. By taper cut-back, we observed that the dissipative landscape, i.e., a non-monotonic variation of the average beam power along the MMF, leads to modal transitions of self-cleaned beams along the taper length

Numerical simulation of heat and mass transfer processes in large-scale fluidized bed complex structure apparatus as an example of the reactor of isoparaffins dehydrogenation

In the chemical industry are widely used fluidized bed apparatus. The advantage of them is the high speed of heat and mass transfer between components of the reaction, which are in different aggregation states. Studies of large-scale apparatus are hindered big sizes and plurality of structural elements. Often such apparatus operate at high temperatures (500-900 C), which further complicates the study. In this paper we consider a fluidized bed reactor block intended for the dehydrogenation of isobutane. In numerical simulation of fluidization was extended Eulerian-Eulerian approach. Differential equations that describe the hydrodynamic and thermal processes in the field of computational model of the reactor were solved in ANSYS Fluent CFD for axisymmetric unsteady flow scheme. At full simulation of the unit of the reactor in differential equations for the mass fraction of components of the gas mixture is necessary to consider changes related with chemical reactions. In the model used for this purpose it is necessary to add terms to the equations of mass transfer and absorption of heat depending primarily on the gas temperature and catalyst concentration. In this paper we'll restrict considering the minimum number of components of the reaction (raw materials - isobutane, product - isobutylene). For a given chemical reaction is written User Defined Functions (UDF). The influence of the ambient gas, the catalyst and the time step on the progress of chemical reaction in the volume element is studied. Numerical calculations were carried out, due to them circulating streams in the apparatus, the temperature field distribution of the catalyst and the conversion of the feeding gas-raw were analyzed

What Threatens Stock Markets More - The Coronavirus or the Hype Around It?

We use a linear regularized model with structural changes and found that the coronavirus pandemic had a direct and an indirect effect (via media hype) on stock markets. We reveal a correlation between internet search queries, discussions of the pandemic in the press and social media, and changes in stock market indices. We demonstrated that the effect of the pandemic coverage in digital and printed media and the effect of Google queries was comparable to, and sometimes even exceeded, the effect of the pandemic itself. We showed the effect of hype on the volume of Google queries and social media publications. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.RFBR, Russia, project number 20-04-60158, funded the reported study

Analysis of the phase composition and an XRD study of industrial aluminum hydroxides

A quantitative phase analysis of aluminum hydroxides was performed by varying and optimizing parameters of the constituent crystalline phases so as to fit the measured and calculated XRD patterns. It was concluded that the system most probably consists of gibbsite crystalline structures and two pseudoboehmite forms. © Pleiades Publishing, Inc., 2006