Combination of Growth Model and Earned Schedule to Forecast Project Cost at Completion

To improve the accuracy of early forecasting the final cost at completion of an ongoing construction project, a new regression-based nonlinear cost estimate at completion (CEAC) methodology is proposed that integrates a growth model with earned schedule (ES) concepts. The methodology provides CEAC computations for project early-stage and middle-stage completion. To this end, this paper establishes three primary objectives, as follows: (1) develop a new formula based on integration of the ES method and four candidate growth models (logistic, Gompertz, Bass, andWeibull), (2) validate the new methodology through its application to nine past projects, and (3) select the equation with the best-performing growth model through testing their statistical validity and comparing the accuracy of their CEAC estimates. Based on statistical validity analysis of the four growth models and comparison of CEAC errors, the CEAC formula based on the Gompertz model is better-fitting and generates more accurate final-cost estimates than those computed by using the other three models and the index-based method. The proposed methodology is a theoretical contribution towards the combination of earned-value metrics with regression-based studies. It also brings practical implications associated with usage of a viable and accurate forecasting technique that considers the schedule impact as a determinant factor of cost behavio

Open Access 4-Improving the capabilities of project team management using the Gestalt Cycle of Experience-with Bar-yoseph-Team performance management 2004

Abstract Tools that project managers use while managing project teams are insufficient. This probably contributing to the large number of projects that fail to achieve their objectives within the desired time and budget to the full satisfication of the customer. An inovative approach for the identification of the main reasons for these failures and the ways to prevent them are described in this paper. The paper introduces several solutions for project team building and management, based on an interdisciplinary approach and theory known in the Gestalt Cycle of Experience. In spite of their differences, the humanistic process of need fulfillment and the project management approach have a lot in common. The present paper demonstrates that both team decision making and project management methods use similar processes. Hence, applying the well known mental barriers and solutions from the Gestalt Cycle of Experience may reduce the currently high percentage of project failures. The paper finally introduces several areas in which project managers can focus on when dealing with managing a project team. 2 Background A project is a temporary endavor undertaken to create a unique product or service The traditional literature of project management deals mostly with the technical aspects, while too little attention is being paid to team building processes. For example, the Project Management Body of Knowledge Introduction The Gestalt COE was developed at the turn of the 20 th century in the Cleveland Gestalt Institute. It models the psychologic process of need fulfillment by an organism or a group. The Gestalt COE demonstrates how interest shifts from one subject to another through the process. Whether described as a continuous wave or as an infinite circle, the Gestalt COE, or in its original name "The need fulfillment process", is one of the ways in which the humanist describes the process of fulfilling a need This theory is based on the belief that it is impossible to explain complex human behavior as an additive structure of simple items. According to Gestalt psychology, experience is an aggregation of basic behavioral "atoms". For example, in Exhibit 1 the reader will see a square. Only later, he will "dismantle" it to four bars connected at 90 0 angels. Gestalt psychology shows that people react to the inner pattern of things, not to parts of this pattern. Experiments done with blind people, who gained sight, showed that pattern perception is a basic human quality even for people who cannot name the patterns. Moreover, this is not a passive reaction, since people force order on what they see. 4 Exhibit 1 -Four Lines Connected to Form a 90-degree Angle (or a square?) The COE summarizes the process in which a human being, as an individual or part of a collective, becomes aware of what is going on at any given moment with himself or in his environment. The human being then mobilizes this energy to perform some action, which deals with the possibilities offered by this new awareness. The process assumes that when a person becomes aware of a state of imbalance, his natural desire is to act in order to reach a new state of equalibrium. The model also assumes that there is a natural tendency for the (normal) human being to perform in the most efficient and effective way. Understanding this process is the key to effective performance while managing people. The Gestalt COE integrates the behavioral aspects to one unit of human experience. The ability of individuals (or systems) to move uninterruptedly through the phases in the COE is necessary for healthy learning and functioning. When an individual or a group develops awareness for a need at a given moment and mobilizes the energy to perform the necessary action, we can talk about a healthy human process. 5 In order to understand the COE approach, we first introduce two principles, which are the baseline for this paper. The "Principle of figure formation" is the result of paying attention (awareness), for example, being aware of a certain specific tree while walking in a forest. When we pay attention to the specific tree, it looks more clearly and is separated from the general background. The "Pragnanz principle" is the law of equilibrium. This principle claims that any experience tends to be "useful" in as much as the sensory terms enable it to be. This means that like the same principle in physics, psychological behavior does not go in an arbitrary direction, but rather in the direction that will bring back the equilibrium and the "useful" pattern. This principle says that people tend to actively finish activities (reach a state of equilibrium) and will not rest untill they do so. The phases in which they finally reach equilibrium will be introduced next

5-Cultural Differences Israel Japan-globerson-Shimuzu-IJPM 2005

Abstract This paper presents a study on identifying differences in project management style, between two different cultures, the Japanese and the Israeli. Management styles were evaluated on the nine classical project management areas, as defined by PMBOK, and on the organizational support required for a proper project management infrastructure. A total of 425 project managers were involved in the study, out of which 337 were from Israel and 88 were from Japan. Significant cultural differences were found between the two countries. Israeli project managers are more focused on performing "Scope" and "Time" management processes, assisted by project management software, while formal "Communications" and "Cost" management are more frequently used by Japanese project managers. It was also found that Japanese organizations use clear and measurable success measures for each project, while project objectives in Israel are often quite foggy. Differences in efforts made by project managers and management of the organization on specific project processes are demonstrated and discussed in this paper. These differences are manifested by smaller costs and schedule overruns in Japanese organizations, while Israeli customers of local projects seem to obtain better technical performance at the end of the project. The Israeli customer, however, is much more impacted by superior technical performance and easily forgives cost and schedule overruns

Ambiguous requirements: A semi-automated approach to identify and clarify ambiguity in large-scale projects

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd In large-scale projects, the client defines a set of product requirements, which the provider is then expected to deliver within the agreed time, cost and scope. If a client sets ambiguous requirements for the project, this may result in the receipt of an unsatisfactory product. Therefore, reducing ambiguity in product requirements by the client is a critical success factor. Despite its significance and regular occurrence, the requirement ambiguity problem has not yet received a methodological solution that can fit large-scale projects, which commonly include a great number of requirements. This paper proposes a semi-automated approach, which combines natural language processing (NLP) to identify ambiguous terms and statements and a soft computing technique to specify these terms using fuzzy set theory. This work contributes to the current literature on requirement specification by highlighting a line of research which paves the way to leverage the applications of advanced tools to allow the clarification of ambiguous requirements in large-scale projects

Enhancing software development through project-based learning and the quality of planning

202310 bckwNot applicableSelf-fundedPublished24 month

Project planning in the Fijian government

Project planning is considered to be critical for project success. However, recent literature questions whether planning has similar importance in various contexts. This paper investigates the effectiveness of planning through an analysis of 183 project manager-supervisor dyads. Participants in this study consist of employees of four Fijian government ministries. Results show that the level of risk moderates the impact of planning on success, and in different ways for various success measures. Practical implications of these results suggest project managers to have more emphasis on planning in high risk project situations in order to meet project efficiency, whereas project steering committees to be more involved in approving plans of low risk projects to support benefit realization. While project managers tend to use planning tools regardless of risk levels, they may benefit from using more advanced planning tools in high risk projects and for short term predictable periods. In particular, this behavior will contribute to enhanced project efficiency, which is a common measure to evaluate project managers’ work. Organizations, on the other hand, may become more actively involved in low risk projects. This approach may specifically support project effectiveness, e.g., by focusing on planning the realization of target benefits. Senior executives can provide additional resources and specialized teams for project planning, as well as ensure project benefit realization plans are properly discussed and approved by project steering committees. Key Words: Project planning, risk, Fijian governmen

The moderating effect of risk on the relationship between planning and success

Project planning is considered to be critical for project success. However, recent literature questions whether planning has similar importance in various contexts. This paper investigates the effectiveness of planning through an analysis of 183 project manager–supervisor dyads. Results show that the level of risk moderates the impact of planning on success, and in different ways for various success measures. Practical implications of these results suggest project managers to put more emphasis on planning in high risk project situations in order to meet project efficiency, whereas project steering committees to be more involved in approving plans of low risk projects to support benefit realization

Hidden fuzzy information: Requirement specification and measurement of project provider performance using the best worst method

© 2019 Elsevier B.V. The requirement specification process is an important part of a project and has the potential to prevent problems that may last for years after a project is delivered. Previous studies on the requirement specification process have focused on clarifying stated fuzzy terms in software requirement engineering. However, in many projects there is information that is not stated, but it is implied and can be inferred. This hidden information is usually ignored due to the assumption that ‘the provider understands what they mean/need’. This assumption is not always true. Such information, if extracted, may include fuzzy terms, namely hidden fuzzy terms (HFTs), which need specification. Therefore, these fuzzy terms have to be identified and then specified to avoid potential future consequences. This study proposes an algorithm to extract the hidden fuzzy terms, utilises a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to specify them, and applies the best worst multi-criteria decision making method (BWM) to evaluate the delivered product and measure the performance of the provider. The model is then used to examine a case from Defence Housing Australia. Such evaluation and measurement enable the project owner/manager to have a transparent basis to support decisions later in different phases of the project, and to ultimately reduce the likelihood of conflict and the receipt of an unsatisfactory product